Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211653 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1253 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary slips south across most of the area early this morning, then stalls over southern Virginia this afternoon. The front lifts back north as a warm front late tonight into Tuesday. A more pronounced cold front will cross the region on Wednesday, followed by a period of dry weather Thursday and Friday under the influence of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1055 AM EDT Monday... Latest surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary just north of the VA/NC border with very weak flow aloft. This boundary is expected to serve as the focus for shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon into early this evening. Latest CAMS guidance suggest that the rainfall could become heavy as any storms will be slow to move with forecast MBE vectors generally less than 5 kt out of the west. As such, have mentioned heavy rain in the forecast for NE NC and far southside VA. Luckily, this area did not see nearly as much rainfall late last week, so they should be able to handle some heavy rainfall today. However, if the storms become stationary, they will drop very heavy rainfall given the precipitable water values of 1.75 inches this afternoon/this evening. Otherwise, will continue with tapering PoPs to the north of the boundary, with areas north of I-64 not seeing much, if any precipitation today/tonight. Previous Discussion below: Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc cold front now through the MD eastern shore, situated from central VA to the VA eastern shore. Flow aloft is rather light and from the W to WSW with weak upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico and ridging well off the SE US coast. Thus, the front will struggle to move south of the region today and is progged to stall across south central VA. As is typical w/ the fronts, it should buckle farther south along the coast and shift the winds to the NE across Hampton Roads. High res models depict quite a bit of QPF over interior SE VA and NE NC from mid morning into the aftn, even as instability parameters weaken due to the onshore NE flow. Have raised PoPs to high chance to during this period, gradually shifting the highest PoPs to south central VA and interior NE NC during the aftn. Meanwhile, should be a sharp cutoff in PoPs to the N of these zones, going dry over the N/NE and only about a 20% PoP this aftn for Richmond and Norfolk. highs today will avg in the lower 80s interior VA, to the 70s along the coast and over NE NC. Upper low to the S moves east and winds aloft shift to the SW overnight. Models have backed off on deep lift and moisture, but still will maintain 30-40% PoPs most areas as the front drifts NE slowly. Lows in the upper 50s ern shore to the mid 60s S/SW. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Sfc high pres off the SE CONUS coast remains in control Tue while lo pres and its accompanying cold front tracks through the Midwest-OH Valley. VRB clouds-partly sunny Tue w/ mainly diurnal PoPs (20-50%) (Tue) ahead of that system, but PoPs have will be highest later in the day NNW locations. Highs Tue from the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85F inland. A more pronounced cold front crosses the area (late) Tue night through Wed accompanied by SCT to numerous SHRAS/tstms. Will have PoPs mainly 30-60%...w/ highs from the upper 70s-lower 80s at the coast to the mid 80s inland. Could be a scenario with an area of showers w/ only embedded tstms early in the day with the wind shift, followed by storms then regenerating during the heat of the day in mid/late aftn with additional energy provided by a shortwave pushing through WNW flow aloft. Drying from the NW to SE after sunset Wed with mainly dry conditions all areas after midnight as airmass turns much drier. Lows Wed night in the upper 50s/lower 60s N to the mid/upper 60s S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Any lingering showers/t-storms move south of the area by Thursday morning as a cold front passes through VA and NC. Behind the cold front, sfc high pressure settles into the Mid-Atlantic region Thu-Fri. This will give us a short break from the rain. Moisture starts to stream northward next weekend as southerly flow returns to the region. Therefore, rain is in the forecast from Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend. Expect isolated-scattered afternoon showers/t-storms on Saturday with more widespread showers/t-storms returning Sunday through Memorial Day. Currently have slight chc PoPs Sat PM-Sun AM with PoPs increasing to ~40% Sunday afternoon through Monday. Highs in the low 80s inland/upper 70s in coastal areas on Thursday. Warmer with highs in the mid-upper 80s expected Friday through Sunday. Lows in the low-mid 60s on Fri/Sat morning increasing to ~70 on Sun/Mon AM. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 755 AM EDT Monday... A weak front is now pushing through central and SE VA with patchy IFR/MVFR stratus and MVFR vsbys through about 15Z at KORF/KPHF. The front becomes located from the VA Piedmont to NE NC by aftn. Chance for showers by this aftn/evening are 30-40% for KECG, ~20% for KRIC/KPHF/KORF, and <10% for SBY. Tstms look rather unlikely through 00Z given the onshore flow but there is a slight chance at KECG and along/west of I-95 including KRIC. The boundary returns N as a warm front across the local area late tonight/early Tuesday with a potential for showers and isolated tstms (PoP 20-50%) though did not include this in TAFS yet. Cigs look to lower overnight and flight restrictions are in the TAFS from 06-12Z. Aftn/evening showers/tstms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A moist airmass will remain over the region and a potential will exist for patchy early morning fog and/or stratus. High pressure looks to build in from the N by Thursday and Friday bringing mainly VFR conditions during the end of the week. && .MARINE... As of 100 PM EDT Monday... Went ahead and issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Lower Chesapeake Bay and the Lower James River. Observations continue to show a persistent east wind of around 15 knots with gusts in excess of of 20 knots at times. Choppy conditions can also be expected in these locations with waves of 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves should begin to diminish after sunset. Previous Discussion: A weak frontal boundary will drop south into the NE NC waters during today. Winds will become NE or E arnd 10 kt or less over the waters behind the boundary. Seas will range fm 2 to 4 ft and waves 1 to 2 ft during today. The boundary will lift back north as a warm front tonight thru Tue morning, with the winds turning fm SE to S or SW. Expect SW winds 5-15 kt Tue night, then W or SW Wed into Wed evening, before shifting to the NW then N Wed night into Thu morning, as a cold front drops thru the region. Winds and waves/seas are still expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria thru much of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1115 AM EDT Monday... Flood warnings continue for the James and Appomattox River basins. Mattoax is now forecast reach moderate flooding by early Wednesday morning. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers (at Stony Creek), as well as portions of the Chowan Basin. Additional flood warnings continue for the Chickahominy, South Anna and Mattaponi rivers, as well as the Pocomoke River in MD. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .CLIMATE... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/20 remains at 8.84" (already ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1880) * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/20 is now 8.52" (already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1906) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB/MRD NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...LKB MARINE...AJB/TMG HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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