Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211809 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 209 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through Sunday night. Low pressure tracks from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 18Z Saturday... Sfc high moves off the coast with high level moisture returning in the WNW flow aloft. Mstly clr this eve, bcmg pt cldy after midnite. Lows upr 30s-mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z Saturday... Sfc high becomes centered off the Mid Atlntc coast Sun and Sun night. Tsctns cont to show mid/high moisture spilling east of the mts. Skies bcmg mstly cldy north, pt sunny south. Highs in the 60s except mid-upr 50s near the beaches. Drier air fliters south across the Delmarva Sun nite. Thus, mstly clr NE, pt cldy elsewhere. Lows upr 30s-mid 40s. Unsettled wx pattern shaping up next week as low pressure ejects east from the nations mid section Sun, into the Tenn valley by late Mon. Models progg a potent srn stream s/w around the base of the long wave trof Mon nite the move it ne to near the Carolina coast Tue. This keeps the local area on the cooler side of this system with a general rain expected to overspread the area. Keeping most of Mon dry except for some low chc pops after 21Z across the swrn zones. Otw, bcmg cldy with highs in the 60s except for mid-upr 50s at the beaches. Rain overspreads the fa Mon nite except for the lwr Md ern shore where it may take until 12Z Tue to reach. Pops ramp up to cat-likely south of I64, chc pops to the north. Lows Mon nite mid 40s nw to mid 50s se. Tue looks wet with cat/likely pops throughout the day. Enough lift/GOM moisture noted for some areas of mdt rain along and west of I95. Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 PM EDT Friday... Rain will move into the area from SSW to NNE during the day on Tuesday as the upper wave and associated sfc low pres push E/NE. 20/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC are in good agreement that the area of light to moderate rain will cover the entire CWA by late afternoon on Tuesday and last through around 12z Wed. Given the agreement between the most recent suite of guidance, have increased PoPs to 60-70% for the entire CWA Tue-early Wed. Due to the rain, high temperatures will be be in the low 60s for the bulk of the CWA on Tuesday. After the sfc low tracks through eastern portions of the CWA Wed AM, the main area of rain will exit the region. A few showers will still be possible during the day, but temperatures should warm to near 70 on Wednesday if the rain exits early enough (this looks more likely in southern parts of the CWA). 12z GFS/CMC track another sfc low/weak cold front through the area Thursday-Friday AM, but ECMWF does not have a rainy solution. Thus, have kept PoPs at or below 40%. Highs around 70/lows between 50-55 expected Thu-Fri. An upper trough amplifies over the eastern US Friday PM into next weekend as sfc low pressure is forecast to deepen over the northeastern US at the same time. This will set the stage for another chance of rain late Friday as well as below average temperatures next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday... VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Winds today will remain light from the N inland and from the E/NE near the coast. Expect calm winds tonight with a shift to the E/SE at 5-10 kt on Sunday. SKC for most locations through ~03z tonight, but some high clouds increasing late tonight into Sunday. Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Sun, with high pressure over the region. A disturbance approaches the region late Monday and Tuesday bringing steady rain which will result in flight restrictions. Restrictions will likely last through at least 12z Wednesday before conditions slowly improve during the day. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Saturday... A weak cold front is dropping N-S across the marine area early this morning. The wind will become NE and briefly increase to 15-20kt immediately behind the cold front mainly over the Bay/ocean and possibly the lower James. The duration will only be 1-2hrs, so this will be handled with an MWS over the Bay. Waves in the Bay could also increase to 2-3ft. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail over the region today and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. The wind will become sea/bay breeze driven by this aftn, the S/SE 5-10kt tonight, before becoming N Sunday morning then E 10kt by Sunday aftn as high pressure shifts toward New England and low pressure moves into the Deep South. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure moves off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 6-10ft Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-5ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (2-4ft elsewhere in the Bay). Broad low pressure crosses the region Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/MAS MARINE...AJZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.