Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161839 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 239 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits to the east this morning. Breezy and cooler conditions will follow for the rest of today, with spotty showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sfc cold front is currently lifting NE, just pushing north/east of the I-64 corridor as of 7 am. Drier air working in behind the front has caused a noticeable dip in temps/dew pts. Last of the heavier showers now exiting the lower MD Eastern Shore. Deep upper level low will be approaching from the W during the day...leading to BKN-OVC conditions and winds shifting to W (gusty at times). This upper low will likely spark spotty showers, especially across our northern counties so will hang on to 25-40% PoPs for N and NE locations. Slight chance pops south (15-20%). Cooler today with highs from around 60 W and low/mid 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Primarily W winds (gusty to 20-25 kt) and cool/dry conditions Tue. Winds shift back to SW by Wed ahead of low pres diving ESE into the OH Valley. Highs Tue in the mid 50s-around 60F. Lows Tue night from the m-u30s NNW (sfc dew point depressions 5-10F may prevent frost) to the 40-45F S. Highs Wed from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore to the u60s-m70s in central VA to SE VA-NE NC. Potent s/w aloft tracks by just N of the FA late Wed night-Thu morning...w/ a cold front (moisture starved) pushing quickly E through the local area. Expected development of gusty W winds Thu along w/ a substantial push of dry air (by afternoon) into the region. Far NNE areas of the FA may be brushed by BKN clouds and isold SHRAS. Lows Wed night in the u40s-l50s N to the m50s S. Highs Thu from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore to the u60s- m70s in central VA to SE VA-NE NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Below normal temperatures are expected through the extended portion of the forecast. NW flow aloft maintains dry/cooler wx will prevail for Thu-Sat. Lo pres will be exiting the central Plains Sat...tracking E and approaches the (lower) mid- Atlantic/SE states Sun-Mon...resulting in increasing clouds and CHC PoPs. Some drying from the N anticipated attm during next Mon. Lows Thu night in the u30s NW to the m40s SE. Highs Fri in the m-u50s E to around 60F W. Lows Fri night from the u30s NW to the l-m40s elsewhere. Highs Sat in the m50s at the coast to 60-65F inland. Lows Sat night ranging through 40s. Highs Sun from the u50 N to l60s S. Highs Mon mainly 60-65F. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lingering MVFR invof SBY attm...otherwise BKN-OVC CIGS into tonight will be primarily VFR as W winds remain gusty to 20-25 kt. Maintaining VCSH for SBY into this evening...otherwise no flight resrictions expected. VFR through Wed (though W winds will be gusty Tue). A cold front will cross the region Thu accompanied by BKN (VFR) CIGS and gusty WNW winds. && .MARINE... Will keep strong SCA`s going as the cold front crosses the area this morning. Gusts aoa 35 kts reported just ahead of the line of tstms, but elected to address these wind speeds in SWM`s over the next few hrs as they will quickly diminish one the convection moves through. Otw, SW winds become west today but remain strong enough to keep SCA`s going. Pressure gradient begins to loosen up a bit tonight so will allow SCA`s to expire across most of the Ches Bay and Currituck Sound. Data suggests 15-20 kts continue thru the night across the lwr Ches bay and mouth of the Bay so went ahead and extended the headlines there into Tue. Seas remain elevated today but quickly subside tonight so will end the SCA`s across the coastal waters late tonight. Minimal SCA`s (15-20 kt) Tue due to decent mixing. WSW winds Wed ahead of the next front that crosses the waters shifting the winds to the NW Wed night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The sustained S-SE wind of 20-30 kt is resulting in tidal anomalies approaching 1.5ft above normal attm. Went ahead and issued a coastal flood advisory for Bishops Head for the afternoon high tide as a wind shift to WSW today will likely push water into estuaries along the bay side of the MD Ern Shore where some minor flooding is expected. Held off on any advisories at OXB as the water level there expected to come in at 3.9 ft, just under the 4.0 foot minor flooding threshold. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ021. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075-077. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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