000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261822
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
222 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered over New England today. High
pressure slides off the New England coast tonight, moving south
into early next week, with a ridge building over the area and
temperatures well above normal through next week. An unsettled
pattern sets up from Tuesday through late next week with daily
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Friday...

Late this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over New
England. The sky ranged from sunny in the ern/SE counties, to
partly sunny to mostly cloudy in the Piedmont. Temps were
ranging through the 50s. Expect a generally partly to mostly
sunny sky across the region this aftn, with highs in the mid
60s inland, upper 60s SW, and upper 50s to lower 60s along the
coast. Otherwise, dry this aftn with increasing clouds tonight
and a slight chance of a brief, light shower across far NW
portions of the FA late tonight. Lows tonight will range through
the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

A ridge builds over the area Sat, building into early next week with
a warmup expected. However, the warm air will be delayed until Sun
due to high pressure lingering off the New England coast on Sat
allowing for one more day of cool, onshore flow. A weak piece of
shortwave energy moves towards the area Sat and may provide just
enough forcing (combined with isentropic ascent over the cooler
airmass in place) for isolated, light showers across N portions of
the FA. Models continue to be in disagreement with global models
showing more coverage than hi-res models. As such, have kept
PoPs at slight chance. Any showers taper off Sat evening with
dry weather Sun as the high moves S and winds become SW. Highs
in the lower 60s NE to around 70F SW Sat and upper 70s to lower
80s Sun. Lows in the lower 50s (upper 40s across the MD Eastern
Shore) Sat night and upper 50s to around 60F Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

The ridge builds over the area early next week, becoming less
amplified by midweek, but lingering through the week regardless with
well above normal temps expected. Highs in the mid-upper 80s Mon-Thu
for most. The warmest days look to be Mon and Tue with highs
potentially approaching 90F for some. Next week will not only "feel"
Summer-like due to warm temperatures but also in the sense that an
unsettled pattern develops from Tue-Fri with daily chances for
showers/storms. Several shortwaves move through the area during this
time, however, global models disagree with timing for each of
these subtle features. As such, have maintained a slight chance
to chance PoP each afternoon/evening for showers/storms from
mid-late week with the greatest chance on Fri (30-35% PoPs) as a
cold front approaches from the W. Highs also look to be a touch
cooler on Fri (upper 70s to lower 80s). Lows remain mild
through the week in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this
aftn into Sat aftn. Winds will be E or SE 5-15 kt through the
period with some gusts up to 20 kt into this evening. An
isolated shower could occur at RIC and SBY Sat aftn into early
Sat evening, due to a weak warm front.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
Sat night through at least Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, high pressure remains centered over New England.
Winds are generally out of NE and range from 10 to 15 knots over the
Chesapeake Bay/rivers and 15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters.
Winds will continue at similar speeds for much of the day today,
before gradually diminishing later this evening into tonight. High
pressure remains over the Northeast US or just offshore today
through Saturday which will lead to continued onshore flow. As a
result, seas remain elevated around or in excess of 5 feet today
into tonight, before a gradual diminishing trend on Saturday. SCAs
remain in effect for the coastal waters (and mouth of the bay)
through late this evening.

High pressure builds into the area this weekend before becoming
suppressed to the south next week. Winds become southerly late
Saturday night into Sunday, and then S to SW later Sunday into the
middle of the week, generally ranging around 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to last into the
weekend. Mainly nuisance flooding is possible across the lower
bay, James River, VA Atlantic- facing beaches, eastern Currituck
County, and Dorchester County early this morning. As such,
Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for these locations.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...RMM/TMG
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/AM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ