-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
415 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure over Quebec and lingering low pressure
offshore will lead to persistent cloudy and cool conditions
through at least Saturday. High pressure settles over the area
by the later half of the weekend into next week. Another low
pressure system may form well offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Early morning analysis continues to show strong (~1030 mb) high
pressure in place over S Quebec into northern New England.
Aloft, a broad trough and weak closed low are located over MI/IN.
At the sfc, ridging extends well south of the sfc high into the
Piedmont of VA, NC, and even SC, reinforcing the cold air
damming (CAD) setup across the area. Offshore, the remnant low
of Ophelia is offshore of the NC OBX. The interaction between
these pressure systems is maintaining a gusty NE wind,
especially near the coast.

Regional sat/radar mosaic/CC data showing patchy drizzle and
considerable cloudiness persisting along the coast of VA/NC.
The one exception is N/NE of Richmond to the lower MD Eastern
Shore where some drier continental air has pushed SW and allowed
for clouds to briefly scatter out across the piedmont. This has
sent temperatures tumbling through the 50s across the piedmont
NW of Richmond Metro. Otherwise, temperatures remain in the 60s
where clouds remain widespread over the coastal plain.

Cloud cover will fill back in toward sunrise early Thursday
morning, with mostly cloudy/overcast conditions for most by 12z.

Have adjusted PoPs slightly to reflect a drier trend, as the
inverted trough offshore sharpens and drifts northward. Trends
have been favoring more of a north vs. NW-ward trend with the
moisture axis, and CAMs do seem to be catching up with the
trend. Accordingly kept PoPs mainly along the SE coast this
morning, then mainly along the eastern shore coast this
afternoon into the evening. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and cool
once again with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

As the upper trough drops across the northern mid-Atlantic and
the inverted trough ascends the offshore waters, CAMs now
converging on a solution that maximizes the best forcing for
ascent along and north of our MD eastern shore zones into the
northeast tonight into early Friday. While soundings continue to
show saturated low levels, which would maintain a spotty
shower/drizzle setup, more robust QPF footprints are now well
north of our local area. As such, while cloud cover remains
high, have lowered QPF a bit, especially inland and adjusted
PoPs to keep likely PoP over Ocean City, MD area, ramping down
to slight to low-end chance PoP along the coastal plain. QPF
now less than a tenth of an inch for most of our coastal
communities, with a quarter to locally half an inch over
Wicomico and Dorchester Counties (MD). Early morning lows in the
mid- upper 50s W to mid 60s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Upper low crosses north of the region on Friday, with the
trough axis overhead early Fri before moving offshore during the
day. Sfc low offshore lifts NE, slowly away from the area into
Fri night. This will allow high pressure to build further S into
the area. Gradual clearing is expected across the SW as the CAD
slowly erodes. However, unsettled conditions looks to linger
for Fri, especially along the coast and on the Eastern Shore.

Saturday is a bit of a transition day for this pattern. While we
start the day with some clearing, thinking that as the upper
trough trundles slowly offshore, we`ll see one last push of llvl
moisture in clouds on Saturday/Sat evening before clearing
trend can finally be in the cards for later Sat night into the
latter half of the weekend. Highs Fri in the low- mid 70s w/
similar temps (~1-3 degrees warmer) for Sat. Lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Extended period continues to trend the way of drier and warmer.
Sfc high pressure will continue to build S later Sat w/ low
pressure moving further offshore. Sunday into early next week
looks to be characterized by weakening sfc pressure gradient
and building upper ridging from the W-SW. This should allow
winds to turn offshore and allow for a drying trend with
temperatures trending back toward climo normal. Highs Sun in
the mid- upper 70s w/ upper 70s-low 80s Mon- Wed. Lows in the
upper 50s NW to low-mid 60s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

1030mb high pressure is centered over QB as of 00z and extends
to the SSW into the VA Piedmont. Meanwhile, weak low pressure
persists offshore of the SE coast. Low ST/SC persists across
much of the area (with the exception of SBY/RIC) with MVFR cigs
of 1.5-2.5kft toward the coast and in the Piedmont, with a
corridor of VFR cigs including RIC. The wind is NNE 10-15kt
with gusts to ~15-20kt along the coast and NE 5-10kt farther
inland, and these wind conditions should continue today. MVFR
cigs are expected to continue along the coast, and re-developing
at RIC/SBY in the next 2-3 hours, with some patchy drizzle
toward the coast IVOF ECG/ORF this morning. Light rain or
drizzle is expected to expand in coverage later this morning
into the aftn along the MD coast with MVFR/IFR vsby possible.
Cloudy conditions with MVFR cigs are expected to continue, with
some patchy IFR cigs possible toward the coast.

Outlook: MVFR stratus is likely with IFR possible Thursday
night into early Friday morning, with the best chc of light rain
or drizzle shifting to the NE. Clouds and NE flow persist
Friday night into Saturday. Conditions are expected to gradually
improve later Sunday through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

The rather persistent pattern continues over the region with low
pressure lingering off the NC coast and strong (~1030mb) high
pressure centered over Quebec/ridging south into the Mid Atlantic.
Winds are out of the NNE and range from 15 to 20 knots over the
Chesapeake Bay and 15 to 25 knots over the coastal waters. Seas
range from around 6 to 7 feet north to 7 to 9 feet further south.

Strong N to NE winds will persist through the remainder of the week
and into the weekend, as strong high pressure remains to our NNE and
low pressure or an inverted trough will remain off the Mid Atlantic
coast. Winds will range from 10 to 20 kt with gusts of 25 to 30 kt
at times into the weekend. SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake
Bay into tonight, gradually coming to a (brief) end from N to S into
early Friday. Additional SCAs will likely be needed later Friday
through much of the weekend with winds once again ramping back up.
For the mouth of the Bay, SCAs remain in effect into early Saturday
(due lingering 4 ft waves) and will likely need to be extended
further. SCAs on the Ocean continue through Saturday and will again
need to be extended further due to elevated seas. SCAs on the Ocean
will likely continue into early next week and possibly linger into
midweek.

Seas gradually diminish to around 4 to 6 feet by later tonight/early
Saturday. Seas will then build again Saturday through Sunday. Waves
in the Bay will mostly average 2 to 4 ft (some 5+ footers at the
mouth of the Bay) through the period. A high or moderate risk of rip
currents/large breaking waves is expected to continue into this
weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 410 AM EDT Thursday...

Elevated water levels are expected to continue through today,
Friday, and potentially this weekend due to a persistent NNE
wind and high astronomical tides.

A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Northampton, VA
south to Currituck, NC into tonight with the next couple of high
tide cycles likely approaching or reaching Moderate Flood Stage
(best chances at Corolla and Bayford). Elsewhere, Coastal Flood
Advisories are in effect for the shore of the western
Chesapeake Bay (including Hampton Roads), the bayside of the
Maryland Eastern Shore, and the bayside of Accomac County, VA
into tonight/early Friday morning with many locations expected
to reach Minor Flood Stage. Advisories will likely need to be
extended out further on future shifts. Left Ocean City/coastal
Worchester MD out of any Advisories at this time, but an
Advisory may be needed for the evening high tide.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ098-
     100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for VAZ078-
     084>086-099.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ089-090-
     093-523-524.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for VAZ095>097-
     525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631-633-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SW
LONG TERM...MAM/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...