Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 072358 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 758 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will prevail over the Mid Atlantic region overnight through Tuesday. A cold front is expected to push through the area late Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Sunday... A weak upper low is situated off the GA coast this aftn, with a trough co-located at the surface. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. There is moisture advecting north between the high to the east and the low to the south with enough low-level convergence to trigger isolated to scattered showers/tstms across interior NE NC and s-central VA. Seasonally hot and humid this afternoon with temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90F and dewpoints in the lower 70s. The upper low gradually slides to the SW tonight into Monday as an upper ridge over the western Atlantic builds west. Showers/tstms should dissipate quickly later this afternoon and early evening with the loss of surface heating. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight, warm, and humid with low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. The upper ridge prevails Tuesday with only a slight chc of showers/tstms over the NW Piedmont, and potentially interior NE NC also. 850mb temperatures of 19-20C should support high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s yielding heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100F. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Sunday... Warm and humid Monday night into early Tuesday morning under the upper ridge and with surface high pressure off the Southeast coast. Partly cloudy to mostly clear with overnight/early morning lows in the lower to mid 70s. The upper ridge still prevails Tuesday, with only a 20-30% chc of afternoon/evening showers/tstms across the Piedmont and into central VA. Hotter Tuesday with highs into the lower 90s and locally mid 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Continued warm and humid Tuesday night with lows ranging from the lower 70s over the Piedmont, to the mid/upper 70s elsewhere. The ridge begins to break down Wednesday and a more potent upper trough digs toward the Great Lakes. This will result in an increased chc of afternoon showers/tstms with PoPs ranging from 20-30% SE to 50-70% NW. Forecast highs are primarily in the lower to locally mid 90s, with heat indices generally 100-104F, with some readings around 105F possible from the western shore of the Bay through SE VA and portions of NE NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Sunday... The aforementioned upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday pushing a cold front toward the Mid-Atlantic region. 40-60% PoPs continue into Wednesday evening, with PoPs then ranging from 20-30% NW to 50-70% SE by Thursday afternoon/early evening. The general model consensus is for the cold front to push south of the region Friday as GEFS/EPS each depict a nearly -2 st dev upper trough developing over the Mid- Atlantic Friday into Saturday, with the upper trough persisting into Sunday. This will allow for a drier airmass to spread across the area Friday through Sunday. Forecast highs Thursday are mainly in the mid to upper 80s, mid 80s Friday, lower to mid 80s Saturday, and mid 80s Sunday. Lows Thursday morning are primarily 70-75F, 65-70F Friday morning, then lower to mid 60s (upper 60s far SE) Saturday and Sunday mornings, with some upper 50s possible in the NW Piedmont. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 755 PM EDT Sunday... Sfc high pressure was centered off the coast as of 00z. Isolated pcpn has diminished or ended across the CWA. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this evening into Mon evening. Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with a light SSW wind. Mainly dry on Mon with SSW winds 8-12 kt with FEW-SCT aftn CU. Dry and VFR conditions continue Mon night into Tue, with only a slight chc of aftn showers/tstms at RIC. There is a higher probability of aftn/evening showers/tstms Wed and Thu, as a slow moving cold front approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to push S of the area Fri, with drier air arriving from the NW.
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&& .MARINE... As of 350 PM EDT Sunday... High pressure remains offshore this aftn with 10-15 kt SSW winds over the waters. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through at least midweek as the high remains offshore. Prevailing SSW winds will generally avg less than 15 kt though likely becoming a touch higher this evening and Monday evening (with the slightly higher winds lasting through the first part of the night today/Mon). A few gusts to 20 kt are likely during these times, but are not expected to be frequent enough to warrant SCAs. From this evening through midweek, waves will mainly be 1-2 ft...maybe 3 ft at times on portions of the Ches Bay. Seas will generally be 2-3 ft (perhaps up to 4 ft 20nm offshore of the MD coastline). A weakening cold front approaches the mid-Atlantic waters Tue-Wed...then crosses the local waters by Thu (afternoon)...which will likely lead to more in the way of tstms. Locally gusty winds may accompany any tstm. Right now...sub-SCA conditions are expected ahead of the front Tue-Thu. A secondary cold front is progged to cross the waters on Fri (which could be a bit stronger...but will keep winds below SCA criteria in the forecast for now). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ERI/RMM

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