Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 220454
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1254 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
through Sunday night. Low pressure tracks from the Gulf Coast
states northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 845 PM EDT Saturday...

Early evening weather analysis reveals ~1031mb sfc high pressure
oriented just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a surface
ridge extending down the eastern seaboard this evening. to the
west, a slowly weakening upper level closed low is noted rolling
across the southern plains toward the Ozarks, with a developing
inverted trough nosing into the mid-south.

A stellar night weather-wise over the local area, with early
evening temperatures falling into the mid 40s to low 50s over
the local area at 01z. Some mid to high clouds 15 to 25 kft AGL
will continue to push across the northern Mid-Atlantic and the
VA piedmont from the NW overnight. Otherwise, remaining mainly
clear across the Tidewater and NC coastal plain, as surface high
slides farther offshore into Sunday morning. Only minor changes
to Sky/T/Td necessary, with the going forecast generally on
track. Early morning lows upr 30s to near 40...low to mid 40s
inland with increasing cloudiness late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 204 PM EDT Saturday...

Sfc high becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun and
Sun night. Tsctns cont to show mid/high moisture spilling east
of the mts. Skies bcmg mstly cloudy north, pt sunny south.
Highs in the 60s except mid-upr 50s near the beaches. Drier air
filters south across the Delmarva Sun night. Thus, mstly clr
NE, pt cloudy elsewhere. Lows upr 30s-mid 40s.

Unsettled wx pattern shaping up next week as low pressure ejects
east from the nations mid section Sun, into the Tenn valley by late
Mon. Models prog a potent srn stream s/w around the base of the
long wave trof Mon night the move it ne to near the Carolina
coast Tue. This keeps the local area on the cooler side of this
system with a general rain expected to overspread the area.

Keeping most of Mon dry except for some low chc pops after 21Z
across the swrn zones. Otw, bcmg cloudy with highs in the 60s
except for mid-upr 50s at the beaches. Rain overspreads the fa
Mon night except for the lwr Md ern shore where it may take
until 12Z Tue to reach. Pops ramp up to cat-likely south of I64,
chc pops to the north. Lows Mon night mid 40s nw to mid 50s se.
Tue looks wet with cat/likely pops throughout the day. Enough
lift/Gulf of Mexico moisture noted for some areas of mdt rain
along and west of I95. Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

After the main area of rain exits the region between 6-12z
Wednesday, we should see enough sunshine for temperatures to warm up
to around 70 Wed PM. 21/12z GFS/ECMWF have showers lingering
throughout the day on Wed, so kept PoPs between 50-60%. GFS even
hints at the possibility of a few thunderstorms Wed afternoon. Most
recent guidance has backed off on the rain Thursday-Friday AM. ECMWF
has the most QPF, and the best chance of rain looks to be over
southern/eastern portions of the CWA. Thus, have lowered PoPs to
below 30%. Highs between 68-74/lows around 50 expected Thu-Fri.

A potent 500mb shortwave is forecast to track over the northeastern
US Friday into the weekend. This will set the stage for another
chance of rain late Friday-Saturday as well as another shot of
below average temperatures. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the strength/timing of this storm system. Highs in the 60s
on Saturday with lows dropping into the 40s Sunday AM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Expect calm winds early this
morning with a shift to the E/SE at 5-10 kt later today. High
clouds increase through the TAF period.

Outlook: A disturbance approaches the region late Monday and
Tuesday bringing steady rain which will result in flight
restrictions. Restrictions will likely last through at least 12z
Wednesday before conditions slowly improve during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure will prevail over the region thru Sunday resulting in
benign marine conditions. Wind will remain primarily sea/bay breeze
driven this aftn, then S/SE 5-10kt tonight, before becoming N Sunday
morning then E 10kt by Sunday aftn as high pressure shifts toward
New England and low pressure moves into the Deep South. High
pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low
pressure moves off the Southeast coast. This will result in
increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by
Monday, and then 15-25kt by late Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Onshore flow will result in seas building to 5-9ft Tuesday/Tuesday
night, with 4-5ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (2-4ft elsewhere in
the Bay). SCAs will eventually be needed for this time frame. Broad
low pressure crosses the region Wednesday with the wind becoming NW
in the wake of the low into Thurs morning. SW flow 5-15kt then
develops for the end of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...AJB/MAS
MARINE...JDM



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