Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 271954 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 354 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will bring a chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm to the region tonight. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible for far southern zones tomorrow, but otherwise most of the region should remain dry and cool. Seasonably cool weather continues for Wednesday through the weekend. While an upper low may bring a few showers Wednesday, drier conditions are expected for the end of the week into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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This afternoon...As of 3:30 PM EDT, skies have become partly cloudy across much of the region, except far northern areas where cloud cover has remained thicker today which helped to keep temperatures only in the 50s to low 60s. Further south where there has been more mixing, temperatures have warmed into the mid and upper 70s under mainly sunny skies. Most of the earlier showers have moved out of the region, although some additional showers have developed downstream of Lake Ontario and are currently moving into the southern Adirondacks from the west. With a decent pressure gradient, it will also become breezy this afternoon. Tonight...A cold front will approach from the northwest this evening and will move southward overnight. By 12z tomorrow, the front looks to be located near or slightly to the northwest of the Capital District. This front will bring the chance for some showers and an isolated thunderstorm to the region, and forcing for ascent will be enhanced by an upper-level shortwave that is expected to approach our region from the Great Lakes towards morning. As far as the potential for thunder goes, a decaying elevated mixed layer (EML) plume is expected to move into the region, tonight, which will help increase mid-level lapse rates to 6.5-7 C/km south of the Capital District. With a low-level inversion expected to develop tonight around 925 mb, there will not be any surface based CAPE, so severe weather is not expected. However, 200-500 J/kg of elevated CAPE is expected tonight, which may be enough for a few rumbles of thunder. There is also a non-zero possibility for a few isolated instances of small hail. Wet bulb zero heights around 10-11 kft are not all that impressive, but nevertheless are sufficient for some small hail in stronger updrafts when combined steep mid-level lapse rates and cool low- level temperatures. With increasing clouds tonight, lows will only drop into the 40s in the Adirondacks and mid- upper 50s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Tuesday, the cold front will continue to slowly sag southward across the remainder of the region. Scattered showers will continue for southern areas ahead of the cold front. There may be some enhancement from the upper-level shortwave that is expected to pas through southern NY and PA tomorrow, as well as from the left exit region of a northwest-southeast oriented jet streak that will approach from the Great Lakes Tuesday evening. With cold air advection (CAA) behind the cold front and warmer temperatures ahead of the front, showers and storms may redevelop along the differential heating boundary by late morning across far southern parts of our CWA. SPC only has a general risk of thunder for this part of our area, which agrees with our thinking. Lapse rates will be decreasing as the EML plume is advected eastward, and although 500-700 J/kg of CAPE is possible for far southern areas, DCAPE looks to be limited. Additionally, while there will be decent 0-6 km wind shear around 40 kts, there will be very little shear in the lowest couple kilometers of the atmosphere which should further mitigate the threat for any severe weather. High temperatures should approach 70 towards Poughkeepsie, but will remain in the 50s to mid 60s for most of the region behind the cold front. It will also be breezy once again thanks to a decent pressure gradient across the region. Tuesday night...A closed upper low over Quebec will move southwards towards our region, so troughing aloft and cyclonic vorticty advection associated with multiple little disturbances rotating around the upper low may lead to some mid and high clouds, especially for northwestern areas. However, high pressure looks to build in from the west, so we should remain mainly dry. Expecting the coolest temperatures in the high elevations further to the west with warmer overnight lows slightly warmer where a stronger pressure gradient may keep the boundary layer more mixed. Wednesday and Wednesday night...Closed upper low continues to move southward from Quebec and will be located somewhere over northern New England by 12z Thursday. An upper disturbance expected to rotate around the asymmetric upper low during the day Wednesday may lead to more mid/high clouds and a few showers, especially across our northern areas. We will be in a continued cold air advection regime, so daytime highs will below normal with temperatures only in the mid 50s (high terrain) to mid 60s (valleys). Wednesday night, cold advection continues with the core of the cold air aloft moving into our region. In fact, 850 mb temperatures are expected to fall below freezing over the Adirondacks by 12z Thursday. Therefore, if any showers continue overnight Wednesday night, cannot rule out a few snow flakes mixing in over the highest peaks above 3500 ft in our southern Adirondack zones. However, with precipitation expected to be light and spotty, will not mention in the grids at this time. Overnight lows will range from 30s in the Adirondacks to 40s in the Mid Hudson Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The majority of the long term period will consist of an upper-level low spinning across the Northeast or a bit farther north and east into Atlantic Canada with individual pieces of energy rotating around the main low. There is some model uncertainty with where the upper-level low will be positioned during this period which is resulting in various model solutions regarding upcoming weather, especially starting over the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Thursday will consist of the surface low positioned across northern New England with it expected to slowly lift northeastward during the Friday and Saturday time frame. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible under the low on Thursday, mainly favoring areas to the north and east of Albany. Mainly dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday with the low farther away and high pressure building in from the west. Quite a bit of divergent model solutions Sunday and Monday with some wet and others dry, so will run with an NBM approach at this time which only places parts of the area in slight chance pops and monitor trends. Overall, temperatures will be fall-like with highs mostly in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A warm front will continue lifting north and east of the TAF sites this afternoon. A cold front will then settle southward across the TAF sites late tonight through Tuesday morning. A band of showers ahead of the warm front has lifted north/east of the TAF sites. In its wake, mainly VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon. However, will have to watch for any isolated shower development across central NYS, which could extend into KGFL and possibly KALB toward or shortly after 00Z/Tue. As the cold front settles southward overnight, isolated to scattered showers will be possible ahead of the front. Can not even rule out an isolated thunderstorm at KALB after 03Z/Tue, and at KPSF and KPOU between roughly 05Z-11Z/Tue. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, a period of MVFR Cigs is possible, especially at KGFL and KALB. These MVFR Cigs could linger until 15Z-17Z/Tue at these sites, and can not rule out brief period of borderline IFR Cigs. Elsewhere, mainly VFR Cigs/Vsbys are expected, although brief MVFR Cigs can not be ruled out between 12Z- 15Z/Tue. Winds will increase from the south to southwest to 8-12 KT this afternoon, with a few gusts up to 20-25 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF. South to southwest winds should decrease after sunset to 5-10 KT, although could remain somewhat elevated at KALB and KPSF. Winds will then shift into the north to northeast after the front passes, with speeds of 5-10 KT, although brief gusts of 15-20 KT are possible immediately in the wake of the front. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A cold front gradually moving southward across the region will bring another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday. Drier weather and cooler temperatures will build in late Tuesday in wake of the cold front passage. Wednesday will be cooler than normal as an upper level low approaches from the north with a few scattered showers possible. Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon will be around 50 to 70 percent, increasing to maximum values of between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 70 percent. Winds today will be southerly at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Winds tonight will remain southerly around 5 to 10 mph. Winds on Tuesday will shift to the northwest behind a cold front at 5 to 10 with gusts to 15 mph possible mph.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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While isolated showers will be possible over the next few days, forecast precipitation during the next 7 days is one half inch or less. River levels should slowly recede during the period so no hydro issues are anticipated. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Main NEAR TERM...Main SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...Main/JPV HYDROLOGY...Main/JPV

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