Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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139 FXUS61 KALY 110511 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 111 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... It will remain warm and humid for Friday into the upcoming weekend, with some additional thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage on Sunday. && .UPDATE... The severe thunderstorm risk for tonight has ended for eastern New York and western New England. Patchy fog will begin developing in the next few hours across locations that recently saw precipitation, otherwise a calmer and humid night is in store. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday once again, with isolated thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds once again. Discussion: Lows falling into the 60s overnight. Some patchy fog may develop, especially for places that see rainfall. On Friday, the surface boundary will still be close to the area, but the upper level disturbance will have moved away. 0-6 km bulk shear is even lower on Friday, with values generally under 25 kts. A few afternoon thunderstorms may develop, especially for southern areas, but coverage looks less compared to Thursday. With high dewpoints once again and slow storm movement, some downpours could lead to an isolated flood threat once again. A rogue damaging wind gusts or two is possible as well, but the limited shear and meager mid level lapse rates should help prevent widespread storms from getting strong. High temps will be well into the 80s in valley areas, although heat index values look to stay just below advisory criteria. More afternoon storms are possible once again on Saturday with the surface boundary still stalled nearby or just southwest of the area. Coverage looks isolated to scattered once again, with the most activity probably south or southwest of the Capital Region. The threat for severe storms looks fairly low due to limited shear, but there should be decent instability thanks to the warm and humid air mass in place. Highs look to approach 90 in valley areas and heat index values may reach the lower 90s. They may come close to advisory criteria in a few spots. Otherwise, it will remain partly cloudy and muggy with lows falling into the 60s on Saturday night. Any precip will fall apart after sunset. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message: - Heat Advisory may be needed for some of the valley areas Sunday and Wednesday for dangerous heat index values reaching or exceeding the mid 90s. Discussion: It will remain fairly warm and humid through much of the long term period. Valley highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday, with heat index values in the lower to possibly middle 90s. With an upper level disturbance approaching from the northwest, some thunderstorms are possible once again on Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ML/AI based convective hazard forecasts suggests there could be severe threat for Sunday with the approaching disturbance and abundant instability in place, so will need to monitor closely. Some more showers or t-storms can`t be ruled out with the passing cold front on Monday. Temps look slightly cooler for Monday compared to the weekend. However, warmer temps will quickly return for Tuesday into Wednesday with building heights and warming temps aloft. With the building ridging, there looks to be less convection on Tuesday and Wednesday compared to earlier in the week as well. Heat Index values may come close or exceed advisory criteria, especially by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06z Saturday...Conditions range from VFR at ALB/POU to MVFR at PSF/GFL as of 1:05 AM EDT. With rain last evening at GFL, periods of fog with IFR or lower vsbys are expected through shortly after sunrise. At ALB, mainly VFR conditions expected through the rest of tonight, although some patchy stratus with MVFR cigs is possible for a couple hours around sunrise. At POU, patchy stratus looks more likely, with MVFR/fuel alternate cigs expected. Cigs look to be near 1000 ft for a few hours around sunrise, so have included a tempo for some IFR cigs here. At PSF, low stratus is already in place and expected to remain in place through early this morning. MVFR cigs at PSF are expected to lower to IFR within a coupe hours, then improve back to low-end MVFR shortly after sunrise. This morning, any lingering low stratus dissipates by early to mid- morning, with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds around through the rest of the day. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected. Best chance for a storm looks to be at POU, where a prob30 group was included. With lower confidence at ALB/PSF, only included VCSH at this time, and will not mention anything for GFL as chances for a shower/storm are lowest there. Storms dissipate shortly after sunset with continued VFR conditions through 06z Saturday. Winds will be mainly from the south/southeast through the entire TAF period at 3-5 kt tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt today then dropping back to around 5 kt or less after sunset this evening. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ UPDATE...Webb SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Webb NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Main