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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 061421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
921 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low over eastern Canada will continue to
funnel colder than normal temperatures over the Northeast this
weekend.  Another upper level disturbance will bring a few snow
showers and flurries today.  High pressure will build in Sunday into
Monday with sunny and dry weather with temperatures moderating to
above normal levels into the mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
As of 914 am EST, updated the sky grids to reflect stratus
blanketing much of the forecast area. Still a couple of sunnier
spots downwind (east) of the Adirondacks and Greens, but expect
mostly cloudy conditions in most areas for much of the day going
forward. Otherwise, few changes needed.

PREVIOUS [0429] AM EST...An upper level low north of the Gulf
of St. Lawrence and near Labrador will continue a northwest flow
of chilly air across the region this weekend. Another sfc
trough and vort max rotating around the upper level low brings
an increase of clouds and some scattered snow showers and
flurries especially west of the Hudson Valley and along the
spine of the southern Greens and Berkshires. The low-level
moisture is fairly sparse. Any snow accumulation will be light
with a few tenths to a half inch in a few spots.

H850 temps will be below normal in the cyclonic flow with temps
at that level in the -14C to -20C range. Highs today were
favored today close to the EC MOS with highs in the teens to
lower 20s over the mtns, and lower to upper 20s in the valleys
with a few lower 30s in the mid Hudson Valley. The winds will
not be as strong as yesterday but still brisk at 10 to 20 mph
with a few gusts 20-30 mph. The wind chills will be in the
single digits to teens at times, with a few below zero readings
over the mtns.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight...The sfc trough moves through and the lake enhanced
snow showers and flurries will end shortly before or just after
midnight. The skies will become variably clouds with lighter
northwest winds of 5-10 mph. The mid-level trough axis begins to
move downstream of NY by daybreak based on the NAM/EC/GFS with
sfc high pressure building in. Lows will be on the cold side with
single digits to teens across the region with a few below zero
readings over the southern Adirondacks.

Sunday...Fair and dry weather will close the weekend with a 1030
hPa arctic sfc anticyclone ridging in from the Great Lakes
Region over NY and New England. Expect partly to mostly sunny
skies from the subsidence due to the ridge. Highs will still
run about 10 degrees below normal. The winds will be light at
5-15 mph. Expect highs still in the teens to lower 20s over the
southern Greens and southern Dacks and 20s to lower 30s over the
rest of the region, except for some mid 30s near KPOU.

Sunday night into Monday....High pressure builds in over the
NY and New England and the Mid Atlantic States with clear skies
and light to calm winds Sunday Night. Ideal radiational cooling
is expected with another cold early March night with lows zero
to 5 below over the southern Dacks and southern Greens, and
single digits over the rest of the region, except lower teens in
the Capital District, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Mid and upper
level heights begin to rise on Monday, as high pressure remains
near the lower to mid Atlantic Coast. Some clouds will in
increase from north and west with a warm front and a short-wave
late in the day. Low and mid level warm advection will increase
into the night time period. Highs creep close to normal levels
with mid 30s to lower 40s in the valley locations, and upper 20s
to mid 30s over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long-term forecast period will feature tranquil weather
conditions for the first half of the period before wet weather
arrives during the second half of the period. The temperature
pattern will remain changeable initially trending warmer through
midweek before trending colder by the end week into the weekend.

We start off the long-term period Monday night with a large surface
high pressure centered to our southeast. A nearby shortwave passing
to our north could bring parts of our northwestern zones a chance
for light snow showers/flurries Monday evening/night. Right now the
greatest confidence is over northern Herkimer county. The remainder
of the area will be dry as the aforementioned surface high yields
plenty of subsidence. Dray and tranquil weather will persist
through the day on Wednesday.

A storm system over the central U.S. will lift northeastward into
Canada Wednesday-Wednesday night. Clouds will be on the increase
along with an uptick in temperature and moisture advection Wednesday
night into Thursday. Rain will increase in coverage from northwest
to southeast during the day on Thursday. Rain could mix with snow or
transition over to all snow Thursday night into Friday over the SW
Adirondacks. Rain or a rain/snow mix should come to an end later in
the day on Friday. Should things linger a little longer, rain could
transition over to a rain/snow mix over much of the area should
Friday night into Saturday.

Uncertainty exist in precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday. The
Canadian and European deterministic models are signaling the
potential for a mid to upper level shortwave associated with a
surface storm system to track southeastward out of Canada bringing
snow or rain/snow showers to the region. The GFS solution keeps
things dry. Being this far out in time, have only include 20% chance
PoPs during this time period. Stay tuned for updates regarding this.

Temperatures will be on the increase through Thursday before turning
cooler Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will go from the 50s
on Tuesday to the 60s Wednesday and Thursday to the 50s on Friday
and the 40s on Saturday. Low temperatures will start off in the
20s/30s Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, increase into the 40s
and 50s Wednesday and Thursday night, and decrease back into the
20s/30s Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
According to the latest observations and GOES-16 visible satellite
imagery, some clearing has taken place overnight over KALB/KGFL
(areas from Albany and points northwest). VFR BKN-OVC clouds above
4.0 kft are still hanging around KPOU/KPSF this morning These sites
should see some slight improvements in cloud coverage (perhaps to
SCT) over the next 6 hours or to about noontime. These clouds were
associated with the first of two weak surface frontal boundaries
associated with a weak shortwave trough. A second frontal boundary
is expected to pass over the area later this afternoon. This will
introduce additional cloud coverage to the area from northwest to
southeast this afternoon. Most of the clouds will be confined areas
north and west of KALB and across higher terrain. Given that the
atmosphere is dry according to BUFKIT soundings and dewpoints in the
single digits KALB/KGFL/KPSF and lower teens KPOU, not expecting any
precipitation (snowfall). There may be a few light snow
showers/flurries over the higher terrains and areas west/northwest
of Albany later this afternoon. Any clouds that do develop over
the TAF sites will be VFR above 3.0 kft.

Winds are expected to be light and variable at KGFL, 5-10 kts at
KPOU out of the west-northwest, and 5-15 kts out of the west-
northwest at KALB/KPSF. We could see gusts up to 20 kts at KPSF
later this afternoon/evening. Winds should subside at KALB/KPSF
tonight to light and variable.

Outlook...

SAT Night through WED: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological issues are expected through the mid
week.

Cold and mainly dry weather will persist this weekend into
Monday with little impact on the waterways. Any decrease in
snowpack will be through sublimation.

Tuesday through the mid week temperatures will moderate above
normal with some snow melt. The next chance of widespread
showers may not occur until late Thu into Fri. Total QPF does
not look very heavy with the frontal passage late in the week.
Some river and streams may show a diurnal fluctuation in
flows/hydro traces with snow melt through the mid week.
However, widespread ice break-up or hydro issues are not
anticipated at this time at least through the mid week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...Thompson
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Wasula