Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 282335 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 635 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will continue to thicken and lower with increasing chance for rain showers and perhaps a wintry mix across some higher terrain areas. A strong cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon and evening. A much colder air mass, strong wind gusts along with scattered snow showers and a few squalls. A cold night expected Monday night with dangerous wind chills, especially for the higher terrain. The blustery and cold conditions persist into Tuesday as an area of high pressure builds into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Break in the precipitation with just scattered showers over the region. Temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s in the eastern Catskills but after a long time above freezing and temperatures just touching freezing, any precipitation that spreads over our region tonight associated with warm advection should allow for temperatures and dew points to rise a degree or two through the night. Radar is showing the beginning of development of more rain in central and western NY spreading northeast and there is a consensus in sources of guidance/ensembles for coverage of rain to increase, especially between midnight and daybreak. So, some minor adjustments to temperatures, sky cover and timing of rain through the night. Previous AFD has a few more details and is below... Rather challenging forecast tonight with respect to precipitation coverage, intensity and some slight concerns with near freezing temperatures for the highest terrain. Regional and local radar depicts an expanding area of mainly rain-rain showers across eastern NY and southern New England. The degree of low level warm advection and isentropic lift is rather strong and per local research, we would anticipate portions of the southern Dacks, Catskills and east of the Hudson to be the most susceptible for additional precipitation overnight. However, a quick look at the latest HRRR, there could be a lull in the precipitation overnight (perhaps some drizzle along with patchy fog). While temperatures overnight should generally be above freezing, wet bulb processes and per NY Mesonet dewpoint depressions, some sleet or freezing rain is possible at or above the 1500-2000 foot elevations. Coverage should remain rather low as SPS could be issued to address these concerns if they unfold tonight. Otherwise a damp period of weather tonight with lows mainly into the 30s. Cold front will be approaching our northwest portions of the CWA toward 6 AM Monday. A band of showers are expected to accompany the front. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Two frontal passages are expected Monday. The initial cold front will bring about a period of scattered showers during the morning hours. Our initial shot of cold advection will commence which will be more noticeable with our dewpoints dropping as dry slot advects into the region. This is where we should see some breaks in the clouds for a partly sunny day for most areas to unfold. Still some showers are possible as we will keep in the 20-40% PoPs in the grids/forecast at this time with the higher values into the terrain. As per BUFKIT, expectations are for good mixing to occur as forecast highs ranging from the mid 30s across the Dacks to mid 40s for the mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County. This will be changing quickly toward sunset Monday with the passage of an arctic boundary. Conditions appear favorable for both high winds and snow squalls across the region. Mixing layer heights within the cold advection are forecast to climb toward 5k feet where near 50kts reside along with funneling down the Mohawk. After close coordination with neighboring forecast offices, a wind advisory was issued where the highest confidence was with respect to those higher magnitudes. Additional adjustments may be needed with future updates. As for the snow squalls, with deep cold advection along with some contributions off Lake Ontario and steep low level lapse rates over 8C in the 1000-700MB layer, the BTV snow squall parameters are rather high as well. Rapidly dropping temperatures too may also result in moisture freezing with potential icy patches developing into Monday evening. The winds and lake effect snow will likely continue as low level wind trajectories become more northwest overnight which would take lake band(s) into the Catskills. As for accumulations, difficult to say due to the scattered and transient nature of the shallow convection. Winds will remain a challenge with the falling temperatures which brings about another hazard, low wind chills. Wind chill headlines may be needed for the higher terrain of the CWA (best potential would be the Adirondack Park). Overnight lows drop back to near zero across the Dacks to near 20F for the mid-Hudson Valley. As sub -20C @ 850MB advects across the region Tuesday morning, high pressure just upstream should allow for those wind gusts to diminish as we will end the wind advisory headline at this time (again, adjustments are possible). The heart of the cold air is expected to moderate and advect east of the region as next clipper type system approaches the heart of the Great Lakes region toward days end. Some clouds will be on the increase as well as afternoon highs rebound to around freezing for the mid- Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County to mainly 20s elsewhere. Tuesday night, this clipper and warm front may bring some light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, across the Dacks. Otherwise, should be a rather tranquil night and a bit milder with lows into the teens and lower 20s, some single digits possible for the Dacks. Seems the start of March will be coming in like a lion. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... We start the long term period with above normal temperatures on Wednesday as a weak low pressure system tracks across New England. Highs during the afternoon will range from the mid 30s to upper 40s. At the surface, a moisture-starved cold front is progged to track through the forecast area Wednesday night, shifting the winds out of the north-northwest. This will set up chilly weather through the weekend with Friday and Saturday looking like the coldest days. The latest GEFS 850mb temps, which are -1 to -2 standard deviations below normal, persist across the northeast through Saturday. Highs on Fri-Sat will likely range from the upper teens to low 30s, with overnight lows in the single digits to upper teens. At upper levels, a large upper trough is expected to set up across Quebec mid-week and remained positioned there through the end of the period. This upper trough will be responsible for the weather through the weekend. At times throughout this period, pieces of upper energy will track southward out of Canada and help reinforce the upper trough and result in it undulating into New York. Despite the upper trough nearby, the majority of the forecast area should remain dry through the long term period, albeit partly cloudy. The main exception is the southern Dacks which may see some snow showers Wed into Thur and again Fri into Sat as upper energy dips south. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered showers around the region this evening with VFR conditions. Rain is developing and spreading northeast into our region, timed to begin at TAF sites around or a little after midnight. Ceilings and visibilities will become predominantly MVFR in the steady rain with intervals of IFR visibilities and ceilings, especially between 08Z-13Z. Steadier rain exits after 12Z-13Z with visibilities returning to VFR but ceilings will take until the afternoon and the approach of a cold front to lift above 3000 feet. VFR conditions Monday afternoon but winds will increase to very strong and gusty from the northwest. So, southeast winds this evening and tonight at less than 10 Kt. Strong winds aloft will cause some wind shear as winds at 2000 feet will be around 15035 Kt. Wind shear will end before 12Z. Surface winds will shift to southwest at 6 Kt or less by mid morning Monday then to west and northwest by Monday afternoon at around 20 to 25 Kt with gusts over 30 Kt and perhaps approaching 40 Kt at KALB and KPSF. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. Scattered SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No major hydrologic issues are foreseen through the upcoming week. Some melting and sublimation of the snowpack in the valleys is expected during the day time over the next several days with the exception of Tuesday. NERFC forecasts show minor up and down changes in river flows due to the diurnal freeze/thaw cycle. River ice is not expected to break up over the next several days. The next system will track across the area later tonight into early Monday with mainly rain (some frozen precipitation across the higher terrain). Total QPF for this system will range from 0.10 to 0.30 of an inch. A strong cold front with snow showers, and a few squalls, is expected to move through the area Monday afternoon through Monday night. Much colder air returns Monday night and Tuesday. Mainly dry weather is then expected for the remainder of the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ001- 013. NY...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>040-047>054-058-063-082. MA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001- 025. VT...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013- 014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/Rathbun NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...JLV AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...BGM/Rathbun

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