-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
693
FXUS61 KALY 101840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
240 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
evening hours before diminishing overnight.  Any thunderstorm will
be capable of producing heavy downpours and gusty winds.  It will
remain warm and humid for Friday into the upcoming weekend, with
some additional thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening,
with the greatest coverage on Sunday.

&&


.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Messages:

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through this
  evening for much of the region with the primary risks being
  damaging wind gusts. In addition, thunderstorms may contain
  heavy rainfall which may produce poor drainage or isolated
  flash flooding.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday
  once again, with isolated thunderstorms capable of producing
  damaging winds once again.


Discussion:

As of 240 PM EDT...A weak surface boundary is situated across
the region and an upper level disturbance is located northwest
of the area over southern Canada. With a warm and humid air mass
in place, some scattered showers and thunderstorms have been
developing over the region. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE in place. 14z UAlbany sounding suggested about 30
kts of shear in the 0-6 km layer, although the strongest shear
was located in the top portion of this layer.

Through the early evening hours, some scattered storms will
continue to push through the region. Low level lapse rates are
high due to strong solar heating, so damaging winds gusts are
possible in the strongest storms today, especially as storms
collapse. There remains a marginal risk for severe storms today,
with a slight risk just north of the area, closer to the better
forcing aloft, where storm coverage may be slightly higher.

The steering flow isn`t too strong, so storms won`t be moving
too quickly today and this could lead to a localized heavy
rainfall threat. Although storms won`t be training and it`s been
fairly dry lately, the high PWATs and slow storm movement could
allow for a quick inch or two of rainfall in any storms.
Localized totals in the 3-4" range can`t be ruled out according
to the latest 12z SPC HREF.

Storms should diminish by the late evening hours with lows
falling into the 60s overnight. Some patchy fog may develop,
especially for places that see rainfall.

On Friday, the surface boundary will still be close to the area,
but the upper level disturbance will have moved away. 0-6 km
bulk shear is even lower on Friday, with values generally under
25 kts. A few afternoon thunderstorms may develop, especially
for southern areas, but coverage looks less compared to
Thursday. With high dewpoints once again and slow storm
movement, some downpours could lead to an isolated flood threat
once again. A rogue damaging wind gusts or two is possible as
well, but the limited shear and meager mid level lapse rates
should help prevent widespread storms from getting strong. High
temps will be well into the 80s in valley areas, although heat
index values look to stay just below advisory criteria.

More afternoon storms are possible once again on Saturday with
the surface boundary still stalled nearby or just southwest of
the area. Coverage looks isolated to scattered once again, with
the most activity probably south or southwest of the Capital
Region. The threat for severe storms looks fairly low due to
limited shear, but there should be decent instability thanks to
the warm and humid air mass in place. Highs look to approach 90
in valley areas and heat index values may reach the lower 90s.
They may come close to advisory criteria in a few spots.
Otherwise, it will remain partly cloudy and muggy with lows
falling into the 60s on Saturday night. Any precip will fall
apart after sunset.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Key Message:

- Heat Advisory may be needed for some of the valley areas
  Sunday and Wednesday for dangerous heat index values reaching
  or exceeding the mid 90s.

Discussion:

It will remain fairly warm and humid through much of the long
term period. Valley highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Sunday, with heat index values in the lower to possibly middle
90s. With an upper level disturbance approaching from the
northwest, some thunderstorms are possible once again on Sunday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ML/AI based
convective hazard forecasts suggests there could be severe
threat for Sunday with the approaching disturbance and abundant
instability in place, so will need to monitor closely.

Some more showers or t-storms can`t be ruled out with the
passing cold front on Monday. Temps look slightly cooler for
Monday compared to the weekend. However, warmer temps will
quickly return for Tuesday into Wednesday with building heights
and warming temps aloft. With the building ridging, there looks
to be less convection on Tuesday and Wednesday compared to
earlier in the week as well. Heat Index values may come close or
exceed advisory criteria, especially by Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions continue at all the
terminals this afternoon with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms already developing over the Adirondacks as an
upper level disturbances tracks through southern Canada. Storms
will continue developing and slowly spreading eastward through
the afternoon but given the widely scattered nature of storms,
we limited the PROB30 mention of storms to GFL which is closest
to the upper level low/cold pool. ALB/PSF/POU could experience a
storm this afternoon but given the brief/limited duration and
lower confidence of a storm hitting any one terminal, we removed
thunderstorm mention from the TAF and will add amendments as
needed should storms near a site. Most convection diminishes by
00 UTC tonight but a few lingering showers are possible through
Midnight as the cold front pushes through. Again, limited shower
mention to GFL where there is a bit more confidence.

Shortly after Midnight, clouds should clear and given the recent
rainfall, elevated humidity, and southeast flow, low stratus
and/or fog looks to develop fairly quickly. Trended all sites to
MVFR or IFR flying conditions after Midnight for either fog
(highest chance where rain falls) or low stratus. Low stratus
cigs gradually improve by 12-15 UTC but a return to VFR cigs
will likely be delayed until 14-17 UTC. Otherwise, expecting light
and variable winds through the TAF period. Should any storm
become strong/severe, brief stronger wind gusts are possible
(highest chance at GFL).

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale