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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 041142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
642 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Morning clouds and flurries should break for some
afternoon sunshine, but it will be colder today with a gusty
northwesterly breeze.  It will remain chilly through the weekend,
but only a few stray snow showers are expected. Temperatures are
expected to finally moderate for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 642 AM EST...Our region is located within the wake of an
Arctic cold front that is situated to the south of the region
over the mid Atlantic States. Behind this boundary, cold
northwesterly flow, aided by some moisture off the eastern Great
Lakes, has allowed for the formation of widespread
stratocumulus clouds. There have been some light snow showers
and flurries at times falling from these clouds, especially
across the high terrain where upslope flow helps the development
of precip. Most of these snow showers/flurries have been brief
in duration and light in intensity, as the moisture is fairly
shallow and forcing remains fairly weak. Any accumulation will
be generally just a dusting.

The best chance of seeing snow showers/flurries will be through
the mid-morning hours and mainly for high terrain areas,
especially across the Taconics, Berkshires and the eastern
Catskills. The northwesterly flow may allow for some additional
lake-effect during the day today, but this should primarily be
impacting parts of western and central NY due to the low to mid
level flow pattern in place.

While the day will start out with plenty of clouds, mixing
heights will gradually increase, as a large upper level trough
over eastern Canada expands southward towards the Northeastern
US. As a result of the increased mixing, there should be a
decrease in cloud cover. At the same time, winds will be picking
up thanks to the increased mixing, with west-northwest winds
increase to 10 to 20 mph. Some gusts of 25 to 35 mph are
possible today, especially this afternoon and across the higher
terrain.

The cold advection will be lowering 850 hpa temps to around -12
to -16 C. This will allow for a colder air compared to
yesterday, with daytime temps in the mid 20s to mid 30s for most
spots. A few locations within the Adirondacks may only stay in
the teens to low 20s. Many locations are already close their
highs for the day this morning, so temps may wind up holding
steady or slowly falling during the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With the large upper level low remaining over eastern Canada,
our region will remain dominated by a trough through the entire
short term period. Cold northwesterly flow will continue to
remain in place.

Skies should remain partly to mostly clear for tonight. Although
the winds will diminish somewhat, it won`t go completely calm
and a light breeze will continue. With temps falling into the
single digits and teens, it will feel quite wintry with the
wind, and some wind chill values will below zero (especially
across the terrain).

As upper level vorticity swirling within the upper level trough
swings southward, there will be a round of snow showers for
late tonight into Friday across the Adirondacks. Most of the
activity will be located on the upslope favored north-facing
slopes of the northern Adirondacks, although a coating to an
inch is possible across the western and central Adirondacks.
Otherwise, skies should be partly to mostly cloudy with
continued cold and breezy conditions in place. Once again,
daytime temps will range from the upper teens over the
Adirondacks to the lower to middle 30s for the mid Hudson
Valley.

Another batch of lake-effect snow showers looks to develop
behind the departing upper level energy for Friday night. With a
north to northwest flow in place, the bulk of this will remain
west of the area. Will allow slight to low CHC pops for far
western areas for a light accumulation of snow (mainly 1" or
less), but most of our area will not being seeing any snowfall,
as it will remain just partly cloudy. Temps will be cold yet
again, with lows in the single digits and teens.

More of the same is expected for Sat into Sat night, with the
upper level trough remaining over the area. Any stray lake-
effect snow showers should only brush far western areas, with a
continued partly cloudy sky and below normal temps. Nearly the
entire area will stay below freezing during the day on Saturday
with temps as low as single digits and teens on Sat night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term starts off with unseasonably chilly temperatures, as
an upper level trough dominates the northeast U.S. with smaller
scale disturbances potentially dropping southeast from Canada.
However, significant height rises and developing low level southwest
flow should allow temps to rebound to above normal levels by next
Tuesday-Wednesday.

For Sunday, aforementioned upper level trough/cold pool remains
anchored across the region. Cold temps aloft may promote some
afternoon clouds, especially to higher terrain areas.
Isolated/scattered snow showers/flurries may also occur,
especially Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Catskills.

It will remain brisk Sunday, with high temps ranging from the teens
across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks and southern
VT, to the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s in valley areas. Cold for Sunday
night, especially across the southern Adirondacks where skies may
become clear and wind diminishes; temps in this area may fall to
around or below zero, with single digits and teens elsewhere.

Rising mid/upper level heights should promote subsidence and a
warming trend for Monday-Tuesday. However, a weakening upper level
disturbance amid low/mid level warm advection could allow for a
period of clouds Monday night into early Tuesday, especially
northern areas, where a few flurries/snow showers can not be ruled
out. Otherwise, after a cold start on Monday, expect afternoon temps
to recover into the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s in valleys, and upper
20s to mid 30s across higher terrain areas. Monday night lows mostly
in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Then milder for Tuesday, with highs
reaching the 40s for most elevations below 1500 feet (possibly lower
50s in the mid Hudson Valley), and upper 30s to mid 40s above 1500
feet.

By Wednesday, continuation of mid/upper level height rises and
strengthening low level south/southwest flow should allow for more
significant warming, with high temperatures potentially reaching
into the 50s for many elevations below 1500 feet, and 45-50 above.
Temps could be even warmer should there be enough sunshine and
deeper mixing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will continue settling south of the TAF sites
through mid morning. Gusty northwest winds will develop in the
wake of the frontal passage for this afternoon into tonight. An
upper level disturbance will also approach from the north late
tonight.

Although mainly VFR conditions are expected through 12Z/Fri, a
few periods of MVFR Cigs will remain possible through around
16Z/Thu at KALB and especially KPSF in the wake of the cold
frontal boundary. Otherwise, Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL should
lift by midday.

Some flurries may also occur through 15Z/Thu, mainly at KALB
and KPSF, where a brief reduction to MVFR Vsbys is possible
(best chances during this time at KPSF).

Mid level clouds will increase from north to south after sunset.

Winds will trend into the northwest to north and increase to
8-15 KT between 12Z-15Z/Thu, with some gusts up to 20-25 KT
possible. Winds will then be mainly northwest to west and
increase to 10-20 KT by early this afternoon, with gusts of
25-30 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF where a few gusts
up to 35 KT could occur this afternoon and evening. These gusty
winds should continue into this evening, with gust magnitudes
decreasing slightly after midnight to mainly 20-25 KT.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected for today through
the weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time
and a dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through
Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly
steady through the weekend.

During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above
normal by later in the week. It should continue to be dry for
the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may
show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to
the expected melting of the snowpack.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...Frugis