-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
133
FXUS61 KALY 021745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of isolated showers north and east of Albany
tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are
expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact,
precipitation chances don`t increase again until Saturday afternoon
into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return
for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 1:30 PM...Deep mixing has allowed temperatures
to rise into the upper 60s to 70s across the region with pockets
of upper 50s to low 60s in the higher terrain regions of the
Southwest Adirondacks thanks to northeast flow immediately
downstream advecting some cooler marine air about the northern
periphery of the surface low. Now that the cold front has passed
through the region, winds continue to shift to the west-
northwest and skies remain primarily clear outside of some fair
weather cumulus and resultant clouds from the adjacent low in
the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens. Made minor
adjustments to cloud cover and temperatures to maintain
consistency with latest obs with this update. Elsewhere, the
forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for
additional details...

.Previous...We are seeing low stratus expanding north and
westwards from the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England
with low-level southeast flow leading to moisture becoming
trapped beneath a thermal inversion. These low clouds should
continue expanding north and westwards through around daybreak
before mixing out later this morning with daytime heating.
Temperatures range from mid 40s to around 60 at this time. Areas
that remain cloud free will likely see temperatures drop a few
more degrees, while cloudy areas can expect near steady
temperatures through sunrise. Some patchy fog is possible for
the more sheltered areas that remain clear through the next few
hours.

This morning, the cold front associated with the surface low
tracking to our north will track through the region from
northwest to southeast. This to the Capital District by around
15z, exiting into western New England late this morning. Behind
this front, we should see a deeply mixed boundary layer today.
Combined with partly to mostly sunny skies, this should help
temperatures rise well into the 70s for many valley locations
and into the upper 60s even for the high terrain. With most
areas still pre-greenup, we went a few to several degrees above
NBM/MOS guidance for daytime highs today. Most of today should
be dry with the surface low tracking off to our north/east,
especially after the cold front departs this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern Great Lakes
region. High pressure in eastern Canada downstream of the upper
ridge will build into our region from the north. The large-scale
subsidence will keep our region dry tonight. There may be a few
clouds around and winds won`t go completely calm tonight. While
conditions are not ideal for radiative cooling, with a dry
airmass in place we should still see overnight lows mainly in
the 40s, although a couple of the normally colder areas in the
ADKs or southern VT may see temperatures briefly dip into the
upper 30s.

Friday, the upper ridge axis shifts over western NY with the
surface high sliding off to our northeast. We will be caught
between an unusually warm airmass under the ridge to our west
and a cooler maritime airmass to our east due to low-level
east/southeast flow around the periphery of the surface high.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s in the Mohawk
and upper Hudson Valleys, while the Mid Hudson Valley and
western New England will likely see highs in the 60s with some
50s in the higher elevations. The upper ridge axis moves
overhead Friday night, with the surface high remaining to our
east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer as there will be a few
more clouds around compared to the previous night. We should
remain dry through Friday night with the upper ridge nearby.

Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday starts off dry, but an
occluded front will approach from the west later in the day,
bringing with it a chance for some showers. The best chance for
showers Saturday afternoon is for areas west of I-87. Western
New England will see highs similar to Friday. Further west, it
will likely be a few degrees cooler than Friday with more clouds
around. Chances for showers increase Saturday night across the
region, although there is still some uncertainty regarding
exactly how quickly the front progresses eastwards. QPF
generally looks to remain on the light side through 12z Sunday.
Lows will be mainly in the 40s to 50s with cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday looks to be a rather cool and damp day, as a surface front
gradually moves eastward across the region. At this time it appears
showers will be prevalent through the day, as the front encounters
ridging along the New England coast which will slow its eastward
progress. With plenty of clouds/showers around and a cool SE flow,
highs will mainly be in the 50s. Showers will taper off from west to
east Sun night, as the surface front and a short wave trough aloft
move through.

Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the
north/west on Mon, providing dry conditions and likely abundant
sunshine. The air mass will be moderating fairly quickly, so with NW
flow and good mixing highs should reach the lower/mid 70s in most
lower elevations. Tranquil/seasonable conditions in store for Mon
night with high pressure overhead. The high will gradually drift
east towards the New England coast on Tue, with continued dry
weather and warming aloft. NAEFS indicating 850 mb temperature
anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV, resulting in highs around 10
degrees above normal.

The next chance of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms, arrives
Tue night into Wed, as a warm front approaches from the south/west
and eventually moves into our area. Temperatures will be highly
dependent on the timing of clouds/showers and also the northward
progress/extent of the warm front. At this time temperatures are
expected to remain above normal, but with lower confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the daytime with
gusty westerly winds shifting to the north-northwest by 20 - 22
UTC sustained between 10 and 18kts with gusts up to 30kts.
Mainly clear skies continue tonight with gusty winds weakening
by sunset (23 - 01 UTC). A few occasional gusts up to 15kts
cannot be ruled out through 03 UTC but winds will be trending
weaker. After 03 UTC, winds at all terminals will be light
(under 5kts) and either variable or out of the southeast.

Given radiational cooling and a weak southeast flow ensuing,
some low stratus may develop by 08 - 12 UTC resulting in MVFR
ceilings. Best chance for any MVFR ceilings looks to be PSF but
included tempo groups at all terminals. Any MVFR ceilings should
diminish by or shortly after 12 UTC thanks to our strong May sun
angle. South-southeasterly winds will remain light near 5kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today, RH values look to drop to 30 to 40% across portions of
the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT. Northwesterly wind gusts
will be around 15 kt in the Mid Hudson Valley and 15-20 kt in
western CT. Further north from the Mohawk Valley through the
Capital District and into the Berkshires, northwest winds could
gust up to around 25 kt, although RH values in these areas
should remain above 40%. With the lack of overlap between the
strongest winds and lowest RH values combined with the fact that
most of these areas saw a quarter to a half inch of rain over
the past 48 hours, we did not consider special weather
statements for elevated fire weather concerns today.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Gant/Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...Main