Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 060314 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1014 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Mid-level low pressure over eastern Canada will circulate cold air across our area through the weekend. A weak trough will trigger a few snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario tonight into Saturday, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. Warmer weather will arrive next week. | && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... The narrow bands of snow continued to drift southward across the southern portion of the forecast area. A light coating of snow had been reported with these bands earlier. The snow is in response to a short wave rotating southward toward the local area about the stacked low over eastern Canada along with some lake enhancement. Additional much lighter bands are moving across the Mohawk Valley and into the Capital District. Pops have been adjusted to account for the activity. Otherwise the weather has been fair with mostly cloudy skies. The brisk and gusty have diminished but a west-northwest wind will persist overnight. It`s another cold night with lows expected to go down into the single digits and teens with around 20 degrees in the mid- Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The coldest air with this arctic outbreak will be over the area on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures down around -18 to -20 C over central and east central NY. The flow will be northwesterly which will keep most of the lake effect snow showers west of our area over central NY, but a few flurries or light snow showers could still get into the western Adirondacks, central Mohawk Valley and northwest Catskills through the day. The boundary layer will be mixed to 4000 to 5000 feet AGL allowing for gusts as high as 20 to 30 mph which would be slightly less that what was experienced today. High temperatures Saturday will range from near 20 over the north country and high elevations, to the lower 30s in the mid- Hudson Valley. Arctic surface high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes toward southern Ontario and Quebec Saturday night and Sunday, bringing dry, but continued unseasonably cold weather. Any lingering light lake effect snow showers will be south of Lake Ontario well to the west of our area. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the single digits and teens. Sunday will be slightly warmer and less windy with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and wind gusts down to around 10 to 20 mph. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expecting a warm up for the beginning of the week as we should be under the influence of an upper-level ridge. Spring-like temperatures are expected Wednesday and possibly Thursday ahead of a cold frontal boundary expected to approach from the region near the end of the period. Details below... The upper-level trough to over Southeastern Canada departs to our east to begin the period Monday and is replaced by rising heights and warming aloft. This should allow temperatures Monday to rebound into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region. A shortwave passes to our north Monday into early Tuesday morning which may increase cloud cover. The best forcing should be displaced to our north, so not expecting much in the way of precipitation other than a stray snow shower in the southern Adirondacks. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure build in once again for Tuesday and Wednesday, which should result in tranquil weather and warmer temperatures. Expecting highs Tuesday to range from the 30s in the high terrain of the southern Adirondacks to mid 50s in the Hudson Valley. By Wednesday, we are under the upper-level ridge and the surface high slides off the East Coast. Resulting southwesterly flow and warm air advection into the region should help temperatures climb into the 50s with a few valley locations potentially reaching 60 degrees Wednesday. A frontal boundary to our west approaches Wednesday night, but this boundary has trended slower with recent model runs. Therefore expecting mainly dry conditions across the region through Wednesday night. Boundary is still expected to remain to our west Thursday morning, but due to uncertainty in timing have introduced chance PoPs for our western areas. With warm temperatures expected at the surface and aloft, expecting any precipitation to be in the form of rain. High temperatures Thursday will depend on the progression of the front, but temperatures a few degrees warmer than Wednesday are expected in association with continued southwesterly flow and warm air advection across the region. Mid Hudson Valley locations could potentially climb into the low 60s with 50s elsewhere. There is uncertainty in how quickly this front moves through the region Thursday night and Friday, so have decided to go with a model blend and keep chance PoPs through the day Friday. Precipitation is once again expected to be mainly in the form of rain, except for the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks where a few snowflakes may mix in. Regardless, expecting precipitation to remain light at this time. Temperatures are once again expected to be mainly in the 40s and even upper 50s across the region Friday, but will depend on the progression of the front as well. Details regarding this system will be ironed out over the next several days as we get closer to the event and forecast confidence increases. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short waves will continue to rotate about a stacked low over eastern Canada. Cloud cover will decrease between the short waves. Narrow bands of snow have been impacting the Mohawk Valley and Capital District early this evening. They extend eastward across the Taconics into the Berkshires. They will continue to morph as they move southward this evening. They are resulting in MVFR conditions with brief IFR and a light coating of snow. Otherwise fair weather is expected the rest of the TAF period. The boundary layer will gradually become less mixed and winds will diminish slowly through the overnight hours. Wind will increase again Saturday to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt possible (mainly at KALB/KPSF), still out of the west- northwest. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly steady through the weekend, with ice remaining in place. During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above normal by the middle and end of the week. It should continue to be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. There also could be some rain showers later next week, although expected rainfall amounts remain very uncertain at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...IAA/MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS

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