Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 040223 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 923 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak storm system will move across the region tonight. This will bring variable cloudiness and allow for some light snow showers over the higher terrain tonight. Behind this weak system, colder and windy conditions will return to the region for Thursday. Chilly and mainly dry conditions are expected for Friday and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 915 PM EST...Regional radar mosaic depicts short wave was approaching the Dacks with NY Mesonet webcams showing light snow across northern Herkimer County. Reflectivities are rather light and coverage rather scattered so did lower PoPs a bit with this update across the Dacks. Otherwise, 00 UTC sounding depicts a thick high RH layer between H800-850 layer which is also well confirmed by the GOES nighttime microphysics channel. So we also adjusted the sky coverage a bit more with this update too. Temperatures have remained rather steady-state due to the cloud coverage so also modified those hourly grids tonight. As seen in the H2O vapor loop, weak impulse and mid level jet around 60kts was approaching per satellite wind estimates. This will likely keep the clouds in place and may bring about additional light snow/snow showers to evolve tonight. This will become more apparent as cold front situated north of the St Lawrence dives southward overnight where enhance upslope conditions could bring some additional light snows into the Greens and Berks. Any accumulations appear rather light. Prev Disc... The next upper level impulse and Arctic cold front will pass through the most of the forecast area tonight. It will be pushing through Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties at sunrise tomorrow morning. There won`t be much moisture with this boundary, but a few light lake- enhanced or upslope snow showers are possible for the far western Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks southern Vermont and the northern Berkshires. A coating to an inch of snow is possible for these areas, with the highest amounts across the mountains. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with a northwesterly breeze for tonight and lows falling into the teens and 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A large upper level low, nearly stationary across eastern Canada, will be have an influence on our weather for the rest of the Short Term period. The only significant weather looks to be windy conditions Thursday afternoon and evening. Model soundings indicate mixing tomorrow afternoon will lead to northwest winds mixing down from aloft with gusts to around 40 mph. Best chance for the strong winds is between 3pm and 9pm tomorrow. With the northwest flow in place, we`ll see the air mass gradually cooling through Friday night. Skies should mainly be partly cloudy, but weak impulses will be moving around the low. Can`t totally rule out a few lake effect snow showers for far western areas but the northwest flow trajectory will keep the bulk of this activity over central NY, or flurries elsewhere as some clouds cross the area with each impulse. Daytime temps look to be below normal, in the mid 20s to mid 30s (a few colder readings over the Adirondacks) and lows will be in the single digits and teens. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long-term weather forecast period will continue to feature quiescent weather with an uptrend in temperatures going from colder than normal levels to warmer than normal levels. We start off the long-term period Saturday with broad cyclonic flow overhead. Mid to upper level impulses will rotate around this upper level trough overhead. Given that low level moisture will be limited, these impulses will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area on Saturday with maybe a few scattered snow showers/flurries especially over the higher terrain west of the Hudson Valley Saturday afternoon. Clouds and any lingering flurries will become less numerous during the day on Sunday as the upper level trough departs to our east. Temperatures will be slightly milder compared to Saturday, but still colder than normal on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday will feature continued tranquil conditions, but with day-to-day increases in temperatures as higher heights/upper ridging and a large 1032 hpa surface high pressure system builds in from the central U.S. For the period, temperatures will trend from colder than normal levels to warmer than normal levels. High temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s on Saturday will transition to high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s by Wednesday (cooler higher elevations). Low temperatures in the teens Saturday night/Sunday morning will transition to low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s Wednesday night/Thursday morning (cooler higher elevations). && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions currently, however, as moisture increases this should allow for those ceilings to lower into MVFR tonight. Question is if/when does snow showers or light snow evolve. Seems the best chance would into KPSF with favorable upslope conditions and approaching cold front from the north where we will place -SHSN in the TAF at this time beginning around 06 UTC. Elsewhere, a VCSH or a TEMPO group was used as we watch trends closely. As this frontal boundary drops south of the region around sunrise Thursday, winds will quickly shift and increase from the north with occasional gusts well into the 20kt range. Flight conditions are expected to be VFR. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro issues are anticipated through early next week. After today, temperatures look to be below normal through next Monday with only light precipitation. Milder temperatures and some snow melt is expected by the middle of next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/BGM NEAR TERM...SND/BGM SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...BGM/Speciale HYDROLOGY...SND

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