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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 040223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
923 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will move across the region tonight. This
will bring variable cloudiness and allow for some light snow
showers over the higher terrain tonight. Behind this weak
system, colder and windy conditions will return to the region
for Thursday. Chilly and mainly dry conditions are expected for
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 915 PM EST...Regional radar mosaic depicts short wave was
approaching the Dacks with NY Mesonet webcams showing light snow
across northern Herkimer County. Reflectivities are rather light
and coverage rather scattered so did lower PoPs a bit with this
update across the Dacks. Otherwise, 00 UTC sounding depicts a
thick high RH layer between H800-850 layer which is also well
confirmed by the GOES nighttime microphysics channel. So we also
adjusted the sky coverage a bit more with this update too.
Temperatures have remained rather steady-state due to the cloud
coverage so also modified those hourly grids tonight.

As seen in the H2O vapor loop, weak impulse and mid level jet
around 60kts was approaching per satellite wind estimates. This
will likely keep the clouds in place and may bring about
additional light snow/snow showers to evolve tonight. This will
become more apparent as cold front situated north of the St
Lawrence dives southward overnight where enhance upslope
conditions could bring some additional light snows into the
Greens and Berks. Any accumulations appear rather light.

Prev Disc...
The next upper level impulse and Arctic cold front will pass
through the most of the forecast area tonight. It will be
pushing through Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties at
sunrise tomorrow morning. There won`t be much moisture with this
boundary, but a few light lake- enhanced or upslope snow
showers are possible for the far western Mohawk Valley, western
Adirondacks southern Vermont and the northern Berkshires. A
coating to an inch of snow is possible for these areas, with the
highest amounts across the mountains. Otherwise, skies will be
partly to mostly cloudy with a northwesterly breeze for tonight
and lows falling into the teens and 20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper level low, nearly stationary across eastern
Canada, will be have an influence on our weather for the rest of
the Short Term period. The only significant weather looks to be
windy conditions Thursday afternoon and evening. Model
soundings indicate mixing tomorrow afternoon will lead to
northwest winds mixing down from aloft with gusts to around 40
mph. Best chance for the strong winds is between 3pm and 9pm
tomorrow.

With the northwest flow in place, we`ll see the air mass
gradually cooling through Friday night. Skies should mainly be
partly cloudy, but weak impulses will be moving around the low.
Can`t totally rule out a few lake effect snow showers for far
western areas but the northwest flow trajectory will keep the
bulk of this activity over central NY, or flurries elsewhere as
some clouds cross the area with each impulse. Daytime temps look
to be below normal, in the mid 20s to mid 30s (a few colder
readings over the Adirondacks) and lows will be in the single
digits and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long-term weather forecast period will continue to feature
quiescent weather with an uptrend in temperatures going from colder
than normal levels to warmer than normal levels.

We start off the long-term period Saturday with broad cyclonic flow
overhead. Mid to upper level impulses will rotate around this upper
level trough overhead. Given that low level moisture will be
limited, these impulses will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies
across the area on Saturday with maybe a few scattered snow
showers/flurries especially over the higher terrain west of the
Hudson Valley Saturday afternoon.

Clouds and any lingering flurries will become less numerous during
the day on Sunday as the upper level trough departs to our east.
Temperatures will be slightly milder compared to Saturday, but still
colder than normal on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday will feature continued tranquil conditions,
but with day-to-day increases in temperatures as higher
heights/upper ridging and a large 1032 hpa surface high
pressure system builds in from the central U.S.

For the period, temperatures will trend from colder than normal
levels to warmer than normal levels. High temperatures in the mid
20s to lower 30s on Saturday will transition to high temperatures in
the lower to mid 50s by Wednesday (cooler higher elevations). Low
temperatures in the teens Saturday night/Sunday morning will
transition to low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Wednesday night/Thursday morning (cooler higher elevations).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions currently, however, as moisture increases this
should allow for those ceilings to lower into MVFR tonight.
Question is if/when does snow showers or light snow evolve.
Seems the best chance would into KPSF with favorable upslope
conditions and approaching cold front from the north where we
will place -SHSN in the TAF at this time beginning around 06
UTC. Elsewhere, a VCSH or a TEMPO group was used as we watch
trends closely.

As this frontal boundary drops south of the region around
sunrise Thursday, winds will quickly shift and increase from the
north with occasional gusts well into the 20kt range. Flight
conditions are expected to be VFR.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro issues are anticipated through early next week.

After today, temperatures look to be below normal through next
Monday with only light precipitation. Milder temperatures and
some snow melt is expected by the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...BGM/Speciale
HYDROLOGY...SND