Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 031908 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 208 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak storm system approaching from the Upper Great Lakes will allow for some light snow showers over the Adirondacks today. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with mild temperatures this afternoon. Behind this weak system, colder and windy conditions will return to the region for tomorrow. Chilly and mainly dry conditions are expected for Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... Visible imagery shows clouds have only slowly increased today from north to south so southern third of the area remains sunny and mild with lower elevation temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds have become gusty, with some northwesterly gust of 20-25kts being observed. Radar shows no echoes. .Previous[0628]... Despite a chilly start (temps in the mid teens to mid 20s), temps should rise steadily through the day today. Westerly flow at the surface combined with a more moderate airmass aloft (850 hpa around -5 to -7 C) should allow for temps this afternoon to be closer to normal, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The next upper level impulse and Arctic cold front will pass through the region for this evening into tonight. There won`t be much moisture with this boundary either, but a few light lake- enhanced or upslope snow showers are possible for the far western Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks, mainly this evening just behind the frontal passage. A coating to an inch of snow is possible for these areas, with the highest amounts across the mountains. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with a northwesterly breeze for tonight and lows falling into the teens and 20s. With a large upper level low expected to be sitting and spinning across eastern Canada, upper level trough will be have an influence on our weather for the rest of the Short Term period. With the northwest flow in place, a colder air mass will be moving into the area for Thursday into Friday as 850 hpa temps fall down to around -15 C. Skies should mainly be partly cloudy and it looks dry for much of the area. Can`t totally rule out a few lake effect snow showers or flurries for far western areas (especially on Thursday and again on Friday night), but the northwest flow trajectory will keep the bulk of this activity over central NY. Daytime temps look to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s (a few colder readings over the Adirondacks) and lows will be in the single digits and teens. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term starts off with unseasonably chilly temperatures, as an upper level trough dominates the northeast U.S. with smaller scale disturbances potentially dropping southeast from Canada. However, significant height rises and low level southwest flow should allow temps to rebound to above normal levels by next Tuesday. For Saturday-Sunday, aforementioned upper level trough/cold pool remains anchored across the region, with a few upper level impulses potentially rotating southeastward. Cold temps aloft and some lift with any passing disturbances should bring some afternoon clouds, especially to higher terrain areas. Some snow showers/flurries may also occur, especially Saturday afternoon for higher elevations west of the Hudson River Valley. Clouds and any flurries may be less prevalent for Sunday afternoon, as height rises and subsidence develop. It will remain blustery and cold Saturday, with high temps ranging from the teens across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, to the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s in valley areas. Cold for Saturday night, especially across the southern Adirondacks where skies may become clear and wind diminishes; temps in this area may fall to around or below zero, with single digits and teens elsewhere. Very slight moderation for Sunday afternoon, with highs in the 30s for most valley areas, and 20s across higher elevations. Rising mid/upper level heights should promote subsidence and a warming trend for Monday-Tuesday. However, a weakening upper level disturbance amid warm advection could allow for a period of clouds Tuesday, especially northern areas, where a few flurries/sprinkles can not be ruled out. Otherwise, after a cold start on Monday with single digits and teens, expect afternoon temps to recover into the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s in valleys, and upper 20s to mid 30s across higher terrain areas. Monday night lows mostly in the 20s. Then milder for Tuesday, with highs reaching the 40s for most elevations below 1500 feet (possibly lower 50s in the mid Hudson Valley), and upper 30s to mid 40s above 1500 feet. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CIGs between 4-6kft will likely persist through 03 UTC before an arctic cold front sink southward from the Canadian border this evening. As it pass through GFL first followed by PSF and ALB between 03 and 06 UTC, CIGs may become MVFR dropping to 2-3kft. Given low confidence, we only show SCT025 during this period. We also continued to mentioned VCSH at these sites where brief light snow showers or flurries are possible. By 09 - 12 UTC, CIGs likely improve to VFR as skies clear with VFR conditions continuing through the end of the TAF period. Westerly winds this afternoon stay elevated between 5 to 15kts with gusts to 20kts. Once the arctic boundary arrives tonight between 03 - 06 UTC, winds will shift to the northwest before becoming north-northwest by 06 - 09 UTC. Winds will also strengthen to become sustained between 10 to 15kts with gusts to 20kts. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro issues are anticipated through the rest of the week. A northern stream disturbance will bring some light snow showers to the Adirondacks for tonight into Wednesday, otherwise, the rest of the area will remain fairly dry. No major storm systems are expected through the rest of the week and any additional light precip that does occur would be in the form of snow showers, which will have little to impact on rivers and streams. Temperatures should be close to normal for Wednesday, but mainly below normal for the rest of the week. Some snowmelt may occur during the daytime for valley areas as temperatures reach above freezing, but any melt will slow down or stop at night as temperatures fall back below freezing across the entire area. Due to the limited and diurnal nature of the melting, no flooding is expected, as any snowmelt looks to be rather slow and river flows won`t be increasing too rapidly at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/Frugis NEAR TERM...SND/Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Speciale HYDROLOGY...Frugis

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