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000
FXUS61 KALY 031908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
208 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system approaching from the Upper Great Lakes will
allow for some light snow showers over the Adirondacks today.
Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with mild
temperatures this afternoon. Behind this weak system, colder and
windy conditions will return to the region for tomorrow. Chilly
and mainly dry conditions are expected for Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
Visible imagery shows clouds have only slowly increased today from
north to south so southern third of the area remains sunny and
mild with lower elevation temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds
have become gusty, with some northwesterly gust of 20-25kts
being observed. Radar shows no echoes.


.Previous[0628]...
Despite a chilly start (temps in the mid teens to mid 20s),
temps should rise steadily through the day today. Westerly flow
at the surface combined with a more moderate airmass aloft (850
hpa around -5 to -7 C) should allow for temps this afternoon to
be closer to normal, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The next upper level impulse and Arctic cold front will pass
through the region for this evening into tonight. There won`t be
much moisture with this boundary either, but a few light lake-
enhanced or upslope snow showers are possible for the far
western Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks, mainly this
evening just behind the frontal passage. A coating to an inch
of snow is possible for these areas, with the highest amounts
across the mountains. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy with a northwesterly breeze for tonight and lows falling
into the teens and 20s.

With a large upper level low expected to be sitting and spinning
across eastern Canada, upper level trough will be have an
influence on our weather for the rest of the Short Term period.
With the northwest flow in place, a colder air mass will be
moving into the area for Thursday into Friday as 850 hpa temps
fall down to around -15 C. Skies should mainly be partly cloudy
and it looks dry for much of the area. Can`t totally rule out a
few lake effect snow showers or flurries for far western areas
(especially on Thursday and again on Friday night), but the
northwest flow trajectory will keep the bulk of this activity
over central NY. Daytime temps look to be in the mid 20s to mid
30s (a few colder readings over the Adirondacks) and lows will
be in the single digits and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term starts off with unseasonably chilly temperatures, as
an upper level trough dominates the northeast U.S. with smaller
scale disturbances potentially dropping southeast from Canada.
However, significant height rises and low level southwest flow
should allow temps to rebound to above normal levels by next Tuesday.

For Saturday-Sunday, aforementioned upper level trough/cold pool
remains anchored across the region, with a few upper level impulses
potentially rotating southeastward. Cold temps aloft and some lift
with any passing disturbances should bring some afternoon clouds,
especially to higher terrain areas. Some snow showers/flurries may
also occur, especially Saturday afternoon for higher elevations west
of the Hudson River Valley. Clouds and any flurries may be less
prevalent for Sunday afternoon, as height rises and subsidence
develop.

It will remain blustery and cold Saturday, with high temps ranging
from the teens across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks
and southern VT, to the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s in valley areas.
Cold for Saturday night, especially across the southern Adirondacks
where skies may become clear and wind diminishes; temps in this area
may fall to around or below zero, with single digits and teens
elsewhere. Very slight moderation for Sunday afternoon, with highs
in the 30s for most valley areas, and 20s across higher elevations.

Rising mid/upper level heights should promote subsidence and a
warming trend for Monday-Tuesday. However, a weakening upper level
disturbance amid warm advection could allow for a period of clouds
Tuesday, especially northern areas, where a few flurries/sprinkles
can not be ruled out. Otherwise, after a cold start on Monday with
single digits and teens, expect afternoon temps to recover into the
upper 30s to lower/mid 40s in valleys, and upper 20s to mid 30s
across higher terrain areas. Monday night lows mostly in the 20s.
Then milder for Tuesday, with highs reaching the 40s for most
elevations below 1500 feet (possibly lower 50s in the mid Hudson
Valley), and upper 30s to mid 40s above 1500 feet.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGs between 4-6kft will likely persist through 03 UTC before
an arctic cold front sink southward from the Canadian border
this evening. As it pass through GFL first followed by PSF and
ALB between 03 and 06 UTC, CIGs may become MVFR dropping to
2-3kft. Given low confidence, we only show SCT025 during this
period. We also continued to mentioned VCSH at these sites where
brief light snow showers or flurries are possible. By 09 - 12
UTC, CIGs likely improve to VFR as skies clear with VFR
conditions continuing through the end of the TAF period.

Westerly winds this afternoon stay elevated between 5 to 15kts
with gusts to 20kts. Once the arctic boundary arrives tonight
between 03 - 06 UTC, winds will shift to the northwest before
becoming north-northwest by 06 - 09 UTC. Winds will also
strengthen to become sustained between 10 to 15kts with gusts to
20kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro issues are anticipated through the rest of the week.

A northern stream disturbance will bring some light snow
showers to the Adirondacks for tonight into Wednesday,
otherwise, the rest of the area will remain fairly dry. No
major storm systems are expected through the rest of the week
and any additional light precip that does occur would be in the
form of snow showers, which will have little to impact on rivers
and streams.

Temperatures should be close to normal for Wednesday, but mainly
below normal for the rest of the week. Some snowmelt may occur
during the daytime for valley areas as temperatures reach above
freezing, but any melt will slow down or stop at night as
temperatures fall back below freezing across the entire area.
Due to the limited and diurnal nature of the melting, no
flooding is expected, as any snowmelt looks to be rather slow
and river flows won`t be increasing too rapidly at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/Frugis
NEAR TERM...SND/Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...Frugis