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668
FXUS61 KALY 081754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
154 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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.With a frontal boundary near the region, showers and
thunderstorms are expected into tonight, especially for southern
areas.  Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty winds
and heavy downpours.  While a few showers are possible again on
Wednesday, there will be a better chance on Thursday, as the frontal
boundary lifts back northward towards the area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Messages:

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for areas south and east of
  the Capital District today with the primary threat being strong to
  locally damaging wind gusts.

- All showers and thunderstorms will have the capability of
  producing locally heavy downpours which could lead to
  localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

- Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the Mid Hudson Valley with
  PM heat indices of around 95-100 degrees.

Discussion:

06z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching from
central Ohio northeast across much of New York state into
central Maine. This front has slowly been tracking south across
the region over the last 24 hours, as has lead to development of
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it through the
daytime yesterday. More of the same can be expected today, as
the front continues its slow movement south.

The cold front should be located across the southernmost CWA by
early afternoon, and will serve as the focus point for additional
shower/storm development again this afternoon and evening. Like
yesterday, there is a low threat of storms becoming severe thanks to
the very warm and humid air mass increasing instability and
water loading favorable for downdrafts/damaging winds. While the
greatest severe threat will remain further south into the Mid
Atlantic, the Storm Prediction Center does maintain a Level 1
(marginal) risk for much of the Mid Hudson Valley into northwest
Connecticut and western Massachusetts. That being said, remain
in line with previous thinking that the heavy rainfall threat is
greater given high PWATs and additional moisture from the
remnants of Chantal interacting with the slow moving front. WPC
maintains a Level 2 (slight) risk of excessive rainfall across
the Mid Hudson Valley into northwest Connecticut, where a Flood
Watch has been coordinated with surrounding offices due to the
threat of subsequent urban and poor drainage flooding from the
heavy rain.

Despite the cloud cover, it will be quite warm and humid once
again today, especially nearer to the front across the Mid
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut where moisture will pool
leading to higher dewpoints. Have coordinated a heat advisory
for these locations as peak heat indices climb to around 95-100
degrees this afternoon/early evening.

Even though the front will sag south of the area, our weather
will remain active for the reminder of the short term period as
we remain locked in near zonal to southwest flow aloft, which
will be filled with several weak shortwaves and disturbances.
The next highest chance for widespread precip will come Thursday
with a shortwave passing just to our north with a renewed surge
of moisture into the area.

Highs will range from the mid 70s (terrain) to upper 80s/near 90
(valleys) today and Wednesday, with slight improvement to the mid
70s (terrain) to low 80s (valleys) Thursday. Lows over the period
will also gradually decrease to the upper 50s to upper 60s by
Thursday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- Active weather persists into early next week with oppressive
  heat remaining at bay.

Discussion:

While each day will not be a washout by any means (it will be more
dry than wet), daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to persist into this weekend and early next week as we
remain in a shortwave filled southwest to zonal flow pattern aloft.
Our best shot at a precip-free day looks to be Saturday as ridging
briefly builds into the area before getting shunted back south
Sunday.

Thankfully, the oppressive heat will remain at bay with daily highs
in the 70s/80s and overnight lows in the 50s/60s, though it will
feel muggy at times with dewpoints in the 60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon with mostly dry weather present across eastern New
York and western New England. In fact, for KALB, it should remain
dry throughout the entirety of the 18z cycle with the threat for
showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold frontal boundary
displaced well to the south and the threat for some light showers in
association with an upper level disturbance displaced to the north.
That does mean, however that showers are possible for KGFL, KPOU,
and possibly KPSF. A brief period of light showers looks probable at
KGFL this evening between 22-02z, but other than ceilings lowering
into MVFR thresholds, little impact is expected. The same goes for
KPSF where light showers are possible between 05-08z. However, there
is more confidence in the precipitation at KGFL than at KPSF so a
TEMPO was added there and a PROB30 at KPSF. KPOU has the greatest
likelihood of showers with embedded heavy downpours this evening
with the aforementioned frontal boundary nearby. Though there is
some uncertainty in this element of the forecast due to model
differences in shower depiction, moderate confidence exists that
between 02 to 04z, moderate rain could impact the terminal. This
would likely force MVFR ceilings and visibility during this TEMPO
period. Upon the conclusion of precipitation this evening and
tonight, conditions gradually return to VFR by the end of the 18z
period. Winds will remain northerly to northeasterly throughout this
cycle with sustained speeds generally falling below 10 kt with
occasional gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon especially at KALB.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ065-066.
MA...None.
VT...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Gant/Speck
AVIATION...Gant