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617
FXUS61 KALY 071826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
226 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms impact the region
this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon resulting from a slow-moving
cold frontal boundary and remnant moisture from Tropical Depression
Chantal. Humid conditions also continue into tomorrow, though
oppressive heat, after today, is not likely for the foreseeable
future. A brief break in precipitation for most Wednesday will be
followed with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the remainder of the week as an unsettled pattern
ensues.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Key Message:

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the
  Southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley this afternoon with
  the primary threat being strong to locally damaging wind
  gusts.

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for areas south and east
  of the Capital District tomorrow with the primary threat being
  strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

- All showers and thunderstorms expected today and tomorrow will
  have the capability of producing locally heavy downpours
  which could lead to localized ponding of water in poor
  drainage areas.

Discussion:
A cold front shifting south and east from southeast Canada, in
tandem with an upper-level shortwave traversing the Great Lakes,
will be the causing factor of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and into this evening in the Southwest Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms well ahead of the highly weakened circulation of
what is now Tropical Depression Chantal will also be ongoing
from around the Capital District, south, and east throughout the
afternoon and into the evening.

Isolated instances of severe thunderstorms will be possible
within the Southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valleys late this
afternoon and into this evening as plenty of sunshine throughout
the day today, along with a very moist antecedent airmass, has
allowed the ease of atmospheric destabilization in these areas.
An anticipated 1500 to nearly 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE and consistent
elevated instability around 1500 J/kg will intersect modest
mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km and 20 to 25 kt of 0-6km
shear this afternoon and into this evening. Unidirectional flow
parallel to the incoming boundary with aforementioned modest
shear could promote some organization of storms into linear
convective systems, but slow storm motion could also promote
cell mergers even where linear modes don`t initially develop.
Anomalously high moisture and DCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will
promote strong to potentially severe wind gusts within these
storms as the primary threat, though these factors, along with
tall, skinny CAPE profiles, indicate locally heavy downpours as
being likely as well. Where storms train and/or move slowly over
urban or poor drainage areas, localized ponding/minor flooding
will therefore be possible. Meanwhile, though a highly unstable
environment due to the very moist conditions, thunderstorms
won`t be as probable to the south where moisture racing ahead of
TD Chantal has generated showers over the last couple hours.
This is primarily due to the more extensive cloud cover that has
been present throughout the day and the much weaker forcing
around. That said, with the excessive amount of moisture,
heavier downpours are certainly possible south and east of the
Capital District through this evening as the remnants of Chantal
inch closer.

The aforementioned cold frontal boundary will slowly traverse
the region through tonight, becoming positioned just to our
south by tomorrow morning. With multiple low pressure
perturbations developing along this boundary, becoming
stationary to our south tomorrow, additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow especially in the
afternoon. However, latest CAMs have begun to show the boundary
pushing farther to our south, therefore keeping most of the
convection also to our south. There are also timing
discrepancies in the latest CAMs with some showing convection
developing in the late afternoon and others not until early to
the middle of the evening. With extensive cloud cover around, it
could be hard for strong thunderstorms to develop, but with
similar indices around in comparison to today, the SPC
maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow for
areas south and east of the Capital District. Strong to locally
damaging winds will be the primary threat once again, though
with even more moisture around than today courtesy of the
remnants of Chantal within closer reach, the threat for locally
heavy downpours and subsequent urban and poor drainage flooding
is arguably a greater threat than gusty winds.

Showers may linger into early Wednesday morning with the stalled
boundary remaining relatively stagnant, though its slight shift
southward, paired with geopotential heights aloft rising into a
brief zonal flow pattern will quickly put an end to any
persistent precipitation. Dry conditions, once reinforced, will
then remain in place throughout the day Wednesday before another
upper-level shortwave threatens additional showers for Thursday.
High temperatures throughout the short term will gradually
lower, becoming much less comfortable as moisture gradually
dwindles as well. Tuesday will be the warmest and muggiest day
of the period with highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s and heat
indices gracing the 90s in the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest
New England. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler in terms of
air temperature with much less humidity before Thursday "cools"
to the mid 70s to low and possibly mid 80s. Lows over the period
will also gradually decrease from the 60s to low 70s tonight to
the upper 50s to upper 60s by Wednesday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Upper level troughing extending south into the Northeast from a
closed low overhead will force the continuation of widespread,
light showers throughout the overnight Thursday. The development
of another surface low in the Mid-Atlantic region along the
lingering stationary boundary from earlier in the week will
allow showers to linger into the day Friday, especially along
and east of the Hudson River Valley as the upper trough begins
to depart to the east and the surface low to the south tracks
along the Long Island Coast into the western Atlantic. Shortwave
ridging then begins to build in across the region Friday evening
through Saturday atop high pressure at the surface, reinforcing
dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England.
But tranquility will not be long lasting as yet another frontal
system and upper level disturbance threaten to bring back
showers and thunderstorms for Sunday.

The extended period, though containing its fair share of less
than ideal weather conditions, does look to pass by without the
threat of additional periods of oppressive heat. Highs
will generally span the 70s and 80s with lows in the upper 50s
and 60s. And while the expected wet weather will maintain a
moist airmass, dewpoints do not look to reach the anomalous
levels they have recently.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Flying conditons are currently VFR across the region ahead of an
approaching cold front.  CAMs suggest a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms may approach KGFL beginning as early as 23z, so . will
include a PROB30 there.  Within any shower or thunderstorm, gusty
winds and brief shot of heavy rainfall (with MVFR and potentially
IFR conditions) are possible, but it would only last 30 minutes or
less. Otherwise, south to southwest winds will be 5 to 10 kts
through the rest of the day with sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft.

This line looks to fall apart as it approaches KALB/KPSF later in
the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. Will mention a VCSH
there, but won`t include a PROB30 for any thunder at this time.
Ceilings may gradually lower for tonight with MVFR conditions for
most sites by the late night hours.  Some IFR ceilings can`t be
ruled out at KGFL for the late night hours.

Ceilings should improve on Tuesday morning, but it may take until
the mid to late morning hours to improve to VFR.  West to northwest
winds will be around 5 kts on Tuesday.

Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038-040-041-
     043-049-050-052-053-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Frugis