-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
324
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1108 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring mostly
cloudy skies with some passing showers tonight through Sunday
night, along with a few rumbles of thunder. The front stalls
south of the region Monday, before returning back northward
Monday night through Tuesday bringing additional showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will vary depending on the frontal
location, with unseasonable warmth on the south side of the
front, and more seasonable temperatures near and north of the
boundary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 10:45 PM EDT, light showers are exiting western New
England this evening with overall precipitation very light as
expected with NYS mesonet observations only showing a few
hundredths of rainfall thus far. The 00 UTC BUF and ALY
soundings show somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates at 6.7C/km
and 6C/km, respectively and guidance indicates that as the warm
sector spills eastward overtop the ridge axis so will weak
elevated instability. A few isolated to widely scattered showers
have developed in Central NY and will likely track eastward
overnight so we have maintained chance POPs over the entire
forecast area. We also added slight chance thunder mention given
the elevated instability and convective look to the upstream
developing showers. Also some CAMs suggest a few isolated storms
can spill into the region overnight. Any thunderstorm will be
capable of producing brief locally steady rain and lightning but
no severe weather is expected.

Otherwise, cloudy skies and slightly breezy south-southeast will
keep temperatures rather mild tonight in the 40s and current
forecast temperatures are on track.

Previous discussion [330pm EDT]...Band of light showers
associated with warm front aloft continues to slowly progress
eastward across central/western NYS. Rainfall rates are
generally less than 0.05 inches/hour. This initial band may tend
to weaken/decrease in coverage as it tracks farther east
through sunset, producing spotty light showers/sprinkles for
areas mainly west of the Hudson River.

Additional showers, currently forming across western NYS are
then expected to track eastward across the region later this
evening and overnight. As the low level jet strengthens, these
showers may tend to hold together better, moving across the
region from west to east between roughly 10 PM and 3 AM tonight.
Latest CAMS suggest some weak elevated instability develops
across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley after midnight, so a
few rumbles of thunder will be possible, possibly extending as
far east as the Capital/Saratoga region and Schoharie
Valley/eastern Catskills prior to daybreak.

Gusty south/southeast winds will continue through sunset,
especially at the leading edge of the rain showers, with some
gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Winds may then weaken once the
boundary layer moistens from the showers.

Low temperatures mainly in the 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Early morning showers are expected, especially near and south of
I-90, before some breaks in the clouds develop by mid to late
morning. Additional showers are then expected to develop close
to, or just south of the I-90 corridor during the afternoon
hours. Shower coverage should remain scattered, however it is
possible that multiple rounds of showers affect some of these
areas. Some elevated instability will also remain for areas near
and south of I-90, so will keep mention of isolated
thunderstorms, with best chances across the western Mohawk
Valley extending into Schoharie County and the SE Catskills.
Low confidence on Sunday high temperatures, as any areas of
clouds and showers will limit warming potential, despite
increasingly warm air aloft. Have sided with a slightly cooler
blend of MAV/MET MOS across the region for max temps, with 65-70
for most areas except warmer across the mid Hudson Valley.
However, should there be less shower coverage, much warmer max
temps are possible.

Cold front approaching from the north should bring additional
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms for Sunday night. This
front should settle southward into the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT
region by Monday afternoon. Mid level ridging sharpens over the
region with slightly drier air aloft building overhead. This
should decrease shower coverage on Monday, with only isolated
coverage expected across the SE Catskills/Mohawk Valley region
closer to the low level frontal boundary. Cooler air behind this
front should prevent temps from warming much for areas near and
especially north of I-90, with mainly 60s expected, with some
possibility for 50s depending on cloud cover. Areas near and
especially south of the boundary should reach the 70s, with some
possibility for temps approaching 80 in the mid Hudson Valley.

Boundary should then begin shifting back northward Monday night
as mid level ridge axis flattens and shifts east of the region.
This should allow for some showers/thunderstorms to move across
the region, favoring areas north of I-90 later at night where
overall mid level forcing appears greatest. Temperatures should
fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weakening cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, while
retreating warm front slows down and potentially stalls across
or just east of the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms
should become numerous Tuesday afternoon and night. Some showers
could linger into Wednesday along with low clouds as frontal
boundary weakens across the region. High temps Tuesday mainly in
the 60s to lower 70s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Wednesday high temps should reach 65-70 in valley
areas, and 60-65 across higher terrain areas, assuming some
breaks of sun develop late in the day. Should clouds and any
showers persist longer, cooler temps would prevail.

Models have trended slower with late week system, with stronger
ridging building off the eastern seaboard. Current forecast
still indicates chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
through Saturday, however if front continues to slow down,
coverage of showers could be much less, along with much warmer
temps for Thu-Fri. Current forecast has highs in the 70s for
most areas Thu-Fri, and 60s for Saturday, however much warmer
max temps are possible during this period should stronger east
coast ridging/slower frontal system occur.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers have overspread the terminals early this evening but
has been light enough that VFR ceilings and visibility have been
maintained at all terminals. A steadier batch of rain mainly 01
to 04 UTC will likely result in low end VFR ceilings with the
steady rain ending from west to east by 05 - 07 UTC. MVFR
ceilings look to develop by 04 - 09 UTC, mainly at GFL and PSF
with a few isolated showers returning, mainly at ALB and PSF,
during the pre-dawn hours (09 - 13 UTC) which may temporarily
lead to MVFR ceilings. A dry break then ensues by 12/13 UTC
through 20 UTC with MVFR ceilings gradually improving to VFR by
the 15 - 17 UTC.

Additional showers (potentially a rumble of thunder) are then
expected late in the TAF period, mainly 20 UTC SUN - 00 UTC
MON. Did not have enough confidence to include thunderstorms but
we will continue to monitor the potential.

South to southeast winds will remain sustained at 10-15KT with
some gusts 20 - 25 KT through 03 - 05 UTC before winds weaken a
bit, becoming sustained around 7 - 12kts. The winds increase
from the south to southwest at 5-10 KT by 15 - 18 UTC and remain
near 5-10kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale