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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 031513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1013 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system approaching from the Upper Great
Lakes will allow for some light snow showers over the Adirondacks
today.  Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with
temperatures rising back closer to normal by the afternoon hours.
Behind this storm system, colder temperatures will return to the
region for Thursday. Chilly and mainly dry conditions are expected
for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...
Mid-morning visible imagery shows much of forecast area partly
to mostly sunny. Clouds across the western Mohawk Valley,
southern Adirondacks, Lake George area and windward slopes of
southern Vermont. Radar shows no echoes. Shortwave that is now
over upper Great Lakes expected to bring increasing clouds later
today. 7AM Albany balloon sounding shows a forecast max temp
around 41F, which supports current forecast high temps in low to
mid 40s in the Hudson Valley so no changes. Winds are
northwesterly aloft with 40kt winds below 5000ft on the
sounding, so with mixing this afternoon, we should see some
gusty northwest winds later.

.Previous[0628]...
With the nearby disturbance passing by to the north, IR
satellite shows plenty of mid level clouds over the northern
half of the area, with mainly clear skies to the south. Skies
will vary from partly to mostly cloudy through the day today,
with northern and high terrain areas having the most cloud
cover.

Despite a chilly start (temps in the mid teens to mid 20s),
temps should rise steadily through the day today. Westerly flow
at the surface combined with a more moderate airmass aloft (850
hpa around -5 to -7 C) should allow for temps this afternoon to
be closer to normal, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The next upper level impulse and Arctic cold front will pass
through the region for this evening into tonight. There won`t be
much moisture with this boundary either, but a few light lake-
enhanced or upslope snow showers are possible for the far
western Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks, mainly this
evening just behind the frontal passage. A coating to an inch
of snow is possible for these areas, with the highest amounts
across the mountains. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy with a northwesterly breeze for tonight and lows falling
into the teens and 20s.

With a large upper level low expected to be sitting and spinning
across eastern Canada, upper level trough will be have an
influence on our weather for the rest of the Short Term period.
With the northwest flow in place, a colder air mass will be
moving into the area for Thursday into Friday as 850 hpa temps
fall down to around -15 C. Skies should mainly be partly cloudy
and it looks dry for much of the area. Can`t totally rule out a
few lake effect snow showers or flurries for far western areas
(especially on Thursday and again on Friday night), but the
northwest flow trajectory will keep the bulk of this activity
over central NY. Daytime temps look to be in the mid 20s to mid
30s (a few colder readings over the Adirondacks) and lows will
be in the single digits and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term starts off with unseasonably chilly temperatures, as
an upper level trough dominates the northeast U.S. with smaller
scale disturbances potentially dropping southeast from Canada.
However, significant height rises and low level southwest flow
should allow temps to rebound to above normal levels by next Tuesday.

For Saturday-Sunday, aforementioned upper level trough/cold pool
remains anchored across the region, with a few upper level impulses
potentially rotating southeastward. Cold temps aloft and some lift
with any passing disturbances should bring some afternoon clouds,
especially to higher terrain areas. Some snow showers/flurries may
also occur, especially Saturday afternoon for higher elevations west
of the Hudson River Valley. Clouds and any flurries may be less
prevalent for Sunday afternoon, as height rises and subsidence
develop.

It will remain blustery and cold Saturday, with high temps ranging
from the teens across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks
and southern VT, to the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s in valley areas.
Cold for Saturday night, especially across the southern Adirondacks
where skies may become clear and wind diminishes; temps in this area
may fall to around or below zero, with single digits and teens
elsewhere. Very slight moderation for Sunday afternoon, with highs
in the 30s for most valley areas, and 20s across higher elevations.

Rising mid/upper level heights should promote subsidence and a
warming trend for Monday-Tuesday. However, a weakening upper level
disturbance amid warm advection could allow for a period of clouds
Tuesday, especially northern areas, where a few flurries/sprinkles
can not be ruled out. Otherwise, after a cold start on Monday with
single digits and teens, expect afternoon temps to recover into the
upper 30s to lower/mid 40s in valleys, and upper 20s to mid 30s
across higher terrain areas. Monday night lows mostly in the 20s.
Then milder for Tuesday, with highs reaching the 40s for most
elevations below 1500 feet (possibly lower 50s in the mid Hudson
Valley), and upper 30s to mid 40s above 1500 feet.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will approach from the north this afternoon, and
then settle southward across the TAF sites tonight.

Generally VFR conditions are expected through at least 03Z/Thu,
with Cigs mainly above 8000 FT AGL through this morning.

As a weak cold front approaches from the north, Cigs will drop
into the 4000-6000 FT AGL range from north to south between
16Z-20Z/Wed. These Cigs should persist into tonight, with a
chance for some MVFR Cigs as the front passes through (which
should be between 03Z-07Z/Thu from north to south). Best chance
for MVFR Cigs would be at KPSF after 03Z/Thu.

Isolated/scattered light snow showers or flurries may also occur
as the front passes tonight, with better chances at KPSF.

Light/variable winds will become west to northwest and increase
to 5-10 KT by late morning, with a few gusts of 15-20 KT
possible at KALB and KPSF. Winds will veer into the northwest to
north tonight as the front passes through, with speeds remaining
between 5-10 KT, although may briefly become light/variable at
KPOU.

Low level wind shear is possible through around 15Z/Wed at KPOU
and KPSF, as surface winds remain light/variable generally under
5 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL remain from the west at
30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro issues are anticipated through the rest of the week.

A northern stream disturbance will bring some light snow
showers to the Adirondacks for tonight into Wednesday,
otherwise, the rest of the area will remain fairly dry. No
major storm systems are expected through the rest of the week
and any additional light precip that does occur would be in the
form of snow showers, which will have little to impact on rivers
and streams.

Temperatures should be close to normal for Wednesday, but mainly
below normal for the rest of the week. Some snowmelt may occur
during the daytime for valley areas as temperatures reach above
freezing, but any melt will slow down or stop at night as
temperatures fall back below freezing across the entire area.
Due to the limited and diurnal nature of the melting, no
flooding is expected, as any snowmelt looks to be rather slow
and river flows won`t be increasing too rapidly at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...SND/Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...Frugis