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124
FXUS61 KALY 070713
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
313 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Very humid and hot today with chances for showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy downpours and gusty
winds mainly in the western Mohawk Valley and western and
southern Adirondacks as a cold front slowly sinks out of
Canada. Additional showers are possible south of I-90 as the
remnants of tropical cyclone Chantal track into the mid-
Atlantic. Muggy and very warm again tomorrow with additional
showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy downpours
mainly south of I-90 as our cold front continues slowly tracking
southward.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Key Message:

- Dangerous heat expected from the Capital District into the
  Mohawk Valley and Upper Hudson Valley today due to the
  combination of high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
  and very humid conditions.

- Areas of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms likely in the
  Southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley later this afternoon
  into this evening. Localized flooding possible where heavy
  rain can repeatedly impact a given area and locally damaging
  winds possible should storms become strong to severe.

Discussion:

We start the day under mainly sunny skies as broad ridging
persists over the Northeast while a cold front positioned well
to out north in southern Canada slowly tracks southward. Latest
water vapor and IR imagery also shows the remnants of tropical
cyclone Chantal rapidly weakening as it tracks northward into
VA and the mid-Atlantic. Southwest flow aloft will advect cirrus
clouds from Chantal northeastward into the our region this
morning and especially this afternoon so expect sun to fade
behind thickening cirrus. Otherwise, it will be uncomfortably
humid today as PWATs rise to 1.5 - 2.25 inches and dew points
reach into the upper 60s to low 70s. The combination of high
humidity, sufficient insolation and weak capping will easily
allow instability to develop across the region through the day
with ML CAPE values rising to 1.5k to 2k J/kg by this afternoon.
In addition, 850hPa isotherms again ranging +17C to +18C will
result in daytime highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s.
When combined with the high humidity, expect dangerous heat
index values or "feel-like" temperatures reaching into the mid
to upper 90s. Highest confidence for heat index values to reach
or slightly exceed the 95F criteria is in the Capital District,
Mohawk Valley, and Upper Hudson Valley where we issued the heat
advisory. Sensitive populations should limit strenuous outdoor
activities and drink plenty of water, even if not thirsty, to
stay hydrated. Areas further south in the mid-Hudson Valley were
close to the criteria but given increased cloud coverage and
shower potential from the remnants of Chantal, held off on heat
advisories there.

There will be two main regions to monitor for potential heavy
rain/localized flooding and thunderstorm development. The first
area will across the western and southern Adirondacks into the
western Mohawk Valley later this afternoon (18 - 21 UTC) into
early evening. Our cold front sinking out of southern Canada
will be very slow moving and therefore will give ample time for
this region to destabilize in response to the high humidity and
insolation. In fact, there is good consensus that such conditions
should generate SB CAPE values exceeding 2k J/kg. By the time
the front approaches by mid to late P.M and erodes any minimal
cap, high res guidance shows thunderstorms/areas of heavy rain
quickly becoming focused along the boundary given weak deep
layer shear values around 20-25kt oriented parallel to the
front. With high FZ heights/warm cloud depths 13-14kft and high
PWATs ~2", heavy downpours can easily occur and could
train/repeatedly impact over an area as cloud layer winds remain
parallel to 850hPa winds. The HREF shows a broad region of
30-50% probabilities for 3-hrly QPF amounts to exceed 1 inch
between 18 - 00 UTC oriented along the front and these
probabilities extend into parts of the western Mohawk Valley.
WPC expanded its slight risk (level 2 of 4) in its Day 1 ERO
across the Southern Tier into parts of Oneida County but stops
right at the Herkimer County border where the marginal risk
(level 1 of 4) continues. This makes sense as 3-hrly flash flood
guidance is quite high at 2.25 - 3 inches so any flooding
impacts should be limited to the typical trouble spots/poor
drainage and urban areas. Regardless, we will maintain a close
eye on potential localized flooding late this afternoon into
this evening. A few storms could grow upscale enough to result
in localized damaging winds mainly from wet microbursts given
DCAPE values >500 J/kg but with forecast soundings showing mid-
level lapse rates limited to 5.5 - 6C/km, any strong to severe
storms should be isolated. SPC expanded its marginal risk (level
1 of 5) in its Day 1 Convective Outlook to cover more of the
southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley but given the late
arrival of the front, severe storms should be isolated.

The second area to monitor for heavy downpour potential will be
south of I-90 mainly in the eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley
and NW CT/southern Berkshire where moisture streaming ahead of
the remnants of Chantal may result in disorganized areas of
rain and embedded isolated thunderstorms. While the remnant
circulation of Chantal will continue to quickly become sheared
out and remain well to our south crossing into the DelMarVa,
southwest flow aloft will direct leftover weak troughing towards
southern New England. Sufficient weak forcing ahead of the
trough combined with mid- level moisture within a region of very
high PWATs (ranking among the highest values in the 30 yr CFSR
model climo) looks to result in a few areas of rain and
thunderstorms with heavy downpours certainly possible given high
warm cloud depths ~13-14kft that can easily support efficient
warm rain processes. While there is rather good consensus on
showers reaching our southern zones, there is discrepancy on the
resultant QPF. The HREF probabilistic guidance shows nearly 50%
chance that 3-hrly QPF exceeds 1 inch this afternoon while QPF
spread from the NBM during this window is limited to between 0
and 0.25". The potential for heavy rain is certainly there given
the moisture rich environment but weak forcing may limit the
coverage. WPC maintained a broad brushed marginal risk in its
Day 1 ERO that includes these southern zones. We maintained the
heavy rain potential wording in the forecast for this afternoon
into the early evening and given very weak flow through the
column <20kts, localized flooding may occur from slow moving
storms or where storms repeatedly impact.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Coming soon.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Coming soon.
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.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 06z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through much of
the night with just a few mid and high clouds around. Scattered low
ceilings in the MVFR range will be possible at KPSF/KPOU early this
morning, along with patchy fog at KGFL. However, confidence for both
these impacts are low due to guidance backing off on low stratus
development, and stronger surface winds limiting fog coverage. Going
into the daytime Monday, expect continuation of VFR conditions with
the exception of KPOU/KPSF/KALB where PROB30 groups have been
maintained for a low potential for afternoon showers and storms.
COnfidence for showers/storms at KGFL is low at this time as
majority of guidance weakens the storms before entering the
vicinity, but this may be adjusted in later TAFs. Late in the
period, MVFR ceilings will be possible at all terminals with the
approach of a frontal boundary from the northwest, but impacts
should hold until after 08/06z. Winds will be around 5 kt from the
S/SE tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt tomorrow with gusts up to 15-20
kt during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ038-040-041-043-049-050-052-053-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.
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SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speck