Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 050548
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1248 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain chilly through the weekend, but only a few stray
snow showers are expected. Temperatures are expected to finally
moderate for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1235 AM EST, still quite breezy across the region, with
partly/mostly cloudy skies, with less clouds across portions of
the mid Hudson Valley. Clouds are moving southward on the
southern periphery of the upper level low, as diffuse upper
energy drops south.

Some flurries/light snow showers may be ongoing across higher
terrain areas of the southern Greens, Berkshires, and Taconics,
as well as portions of the eastern Catskills.

Expect areas of clouds/flurries to persist for another several
hours, with some clearing potentially developing closer to
sunrise within the Hudson River Valley.

Northwest winds will remain brisk through daybreak, with speeds
of 10-20 mph in most areas, with some gusts up to 30 mph
possible within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and
Berkshires. There could be some localized pockets of lighter
winds developing toward daybreak across the southern
Adirondacks, and portions of the mid Hudson Valley.

Low temperatures around daybreak mostly in the single digits and
teens, although could fall close to zero across portions of the
southern Adirondacks, especially within any sheltered valleys
where winds may become lighter.

Wind chills could drop as low as -15 to -19 F across higher
elevations of the southern Adirondacks, and between 5 above and
10 below elsewhere through daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper cut off low in SE Canada will continue to be nearly
stationary and sources of guidance/ensembles are trying to
resolve additional pieces of upper energy rotating around the
upper low that track south into our region, then rotate through
and exit, with varying opinions on the timing. The general
consensus is for one upper impulse to exit by midday Friday,
with another upper impulse dropping south again Friday evening
and night.

This upper energy should support more clouds and
isolated to scattered snow shower activity, mainly in the
southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie
Valley, as mean low layer flow through the boundary layer is
northwest to north northwest. So, lake effect moisture should be
confined to those areas. Highs Friday with continued breezy
conditions in the 20s to lower 30s with upper teens to around
20 northern areas.

Upper trough associated with the upper cut off low in SE Canada
amplifies a bit through Saturday with reinforcing cold air
across our region. Intervals of clouds and sun continue but the
winds should be less gusty. Highs in the 20s to lower 30s with
mid teens to around 20 northern areas.

By Sunday, the upper low and upper troughing just begin to lift
north and east as boundary layer temperatures just begin to
warm. There should be increasing sunshine as well. Highs in the
lower to mid 30s with mid to upper 20s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall, tranquil weather is expected through the period. Warmer
temperatures expected as we get into next week as upper-level
troughing over the region is replaced with upper-level ridging for
at least the first half of next week. A cold front may approach from
the west towards the end of the period, bringing the chance for
showers Wednesday night into Thursday.

We begin the period Sunday night under the influence of an upper-
level trough and chilly temperatures. A 1032 mb high is expected to
build into the region Sunday night in association with an upper-
level ridge approaching from the west. Given the relatively weak
pressure gradient and clear skies, expecting favorable conditions
for radiational cooling with temperatures expected to drop into the
single digits to near zero in the southern Adirondacks and single
digits and teens elsewhere across the region.

The 500 mb ridge is expected to move overhead Monday. The influence
of this ridge combined with that of surface high pressure should
allow for quiet weather and clear skies through most of the day.
Warm air advection and clear skies should allow for high
temperatures 5-10F warmer than those on Sunday, with mid 30s to mid
40s expected across the region. Some clouds are expected Monday
evening into Monday night in advance of an approaching 500 mb
shortwave. This shortwave could lead to a few isolated snow showers
across the southern Adirondacks Monday night into early Tuesday
morning, especially in the W/NW flow upslope favored areas. However,
given that this shortwave and the associated surface low are
expected to pass well to our north, expecting weak forcing for
ascent and therefore mainly dry conditions across the region
otherwise.

We are once again expected to be under the influence of high
pressure Tuesday into Wednesday as heights continue to rise Tuesday
into Wednesday with the shortwave departing to the north and east.
This should allow for high temperatures a few degrees warmer than
Monday. GFS MOS suggests high temperatures getting into the 50s in
portions of the Mid Hudson Valley Tuesday, although NBM MOS keeps
temperatures in the 40s. Considering that the GFS has support from
the Euro and CMC, have decided to lean warmer with high temperatures
in the 50s for the Mid Hudson valley and 40s elsewhere, except in
the higher terrain where temperatures may stay in the 30s.

Temperatures look to be even more spring-like next Wednesday, as we
will be directly under the upper-level ridge. The surface high
slides off the East Coast, resulting in southwesterly low-level
winds and continued warm air advection into the region. Models are
in good agreement that temperatures should climb into the 40s and
50s across the region, with the lower elevations of the valleys
potentially reaching the low 60s.

A cold front is expected to approach from the west near the end of
the period, but there is some uncertainty with regards to the timing
of this feature. The GFS is more progressive as usual, bringing a
chance for showers for Wednesday night and Thursday. The Euro is
slower with the progression of this front, and keeps us dry through
most of the day Thursday. Have therefore decided to compromise and
include a chance for showers late Wednesday night into Thursday. The
progression of this front will largely determine our weather for
Thursday. A slower progression of the front would allow for
temperatures in the low 60s Thursday for may of the valley
locations, while a more GFS-like solution with showers and increased
cloud cover would keep temperatures mainly in upper 40s to upper
50s. Regardless, there will be plenty of time to sort out the
details over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level trough located over eastern Canada continues to expand
southward across the Northeastern US.  Through the remainder of the
overnight hours, flying conditions should stay VFR, although periods
of bkn-ovc stratocu clouds around 5-7 kft will remain near
KGFL/KALB/KPSF for most of the overnight hours. KPOU should be far
enough south to just see sct clouds, if at all.  Gusty northwest
winds will continue; with sustained winds around 10 kts and some
gusts of 20-30 kts at times through the rest of the night.  Winds
may briefly diminish slightly towards daybreak, but will continue to
be fairly breezy.

During the day on Friday, flying conditions will continue to be VFR.
Clouds may decrease during the morning hours, but should increase
again by the late day hours around 4-6 kft.  Winds will continue to
be gusty from the west-northwest, generally sustained at 10 to 18
kts with gusts of 25-30 kts, especially for KALB/KPSF.

Winds may start to diminish slightly for Friday night.  Flying
conditions should remain VFR, with cloud coverage slowly decreasing
through Friday night.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the
weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a
dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through
Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly
steady through the weekend.

During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above
normal by later in the week. It should continue to be dry for
the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may
show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to
the expected melting of the snowpack.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Main/NAS
AVIATION...IAA/Frugis
HYDROLOGY...NAS


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