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153
FXUS61 KALY 050220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1020 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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As a storm system approaches from the west, rain will overspread
the area late tonight and continue through much of the day on
Sunday, with much cooler temperatures. Clouds will break for
some sun on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the
region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the
threat for showers returns to the region for Wednesday and into
the latter portion of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE...As of 1020 PM EDT, light rain showers and overcast
skies are moving into the region from the southwest, although
surface dewpoint depressions greater than 10 degrees persist
outside of the southern Mid-Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills;
even Poughkeepsie ASOS is still reporting an 11F dewpoint
depression as of 10 PM EDT. As the column saturates, light
precipitation will begin to reach the ground through the
overnight period and will continue for much of the day on Sunday
resulting in a soaking rain for most of the region. With only
minor updates made to the arrival time of rain showers
overnight, the forecast remains largely on track; see previous
discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0730 PM EDT]...At the surface, high pressure
(around 1030 hpa) is exiting off the coast of Maine and will
continue to slowly depart off to the east tonight. Meanwhile, a
slow moving frontal boundary is located over the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes and it will be heading towards the area for
tonight into Sunday.

Visible satellite shows a mostly cloudy sky over the region,
with the most breaks for far southern areas. Skies will continue
to be mostly cloudy through the evening with some occasional
breaks, but sky cover will start to lower and thicken for
tonight as the storm system approaches from the west.

A few light sprinkles and brief showers can be seen on radar
across central New York, with a few of these already sneaking
into the Adirondacks. Through the evening hours, a brief shower
can`t be ruled out for western areas, but most of the area will
be staying dry this evening, as the best forcing continues to
remain off to the west.

As the ridge axis continues to depart off to the east tonight,
warm advection thanks a southerly low level jet around 30 kts
will allow for a period of fairly steady rain showers to spread
towards the area for the late night hours. 18z HRRR suggest
this will be spreading across southern and western areas after
midnight and expanding northeast across the area for the late
night hours. Rainfall looks fairly light in intensity overall,
but all areas will be see rainfall by daybreak, with up to a
quarter inch of rainfall occurring by sunrise Sunday. Southerly
winds will be starting to pick up by the late night as well,
especially in the larger north-south valleys.

After another mild and comfortable day, temps will drop this
evening and will continue to fall for tonight with the rain
spreading into the area. Most areas will see lows in the mid to
upper 40s (some spots may bottom out right around 50).
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west, most of
Sunday looks to be fairly wet and damp with periods of showers
through the entire day, with the steadiest and heaviest rainfall
across northern and western areas. Temps will be held down and
steady due to the persistent clouds and precip, with most spots
being held into the lower to middle 50s through the day.
Overall, additional precip on Sunday will be one third to two
thirds of an inch of rainfall. While this won`t be enough to
cause any hydro issues (especially within greenup starting to
occur), it still make for some wet and soggy conditions
outdoors.

Although the steadiest precip will be done for Sunday evening,
some showers may still linger into Sunday night as the main
frontal boundary crosses the area from west to east overnight.
Otherwise, it will remain cloudy and damp with some patchy fog
and temps in the upper 40s.

On Monday, clouds will eventually break for some sun by the mid
to late morning hours. A stray shower or sprinkle is still
possible for some high terrain or eastern areas, but most spots
should be dry on Monday. Temps will be mild once again,
especially once the sun returns by Monday afternoon, when temps
should reach back into the 70s for valley areas. Quiet weather
will continue into Monday night, with skies becoming mainly
clear and lows falling into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will begin will high pressure and upper
level ridging close to the area on Tuesday. This should allow
for a nice day with plenty of sun and rather mild temps. Many
valley areas may reach into the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday
afternoon.

However, the quiet and pleasant weather will only be short lived,
as the ridge will be breaking down for the middle to latter
portion of the week. The first in a series of shortwaves will be
moving across the area on Wednesday. Guidance suggest a wave of
low pressure will be tracking over or just north of the area.
As a result, a period of showers is expected for Wednesday and
some thunder will be possible as well (especially southern
areas). It should still be fairly mild with temps in the 60s and
70s once again.

Behind this initial disturbance, additional storms are expected
to impact the region, as an upper level trough sets up over the
Northeast and disturbances rotate across the region. With more
wet weather expected for Thursday through the weekend, will
continue to go with chc to likely POPs each day. A few
additional rumbles of thunder are possible from time to time as
well, although it will depend on just how much instability is
available. Temps still look close to normal, with highs in the
60s and overnight lows in the 40s to near 50 through the late
week and no threat for any frost/freeze in areas where the
growing season has begun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions expected to initially prevail at
all terminals, before vsbys/cigs trend downward to MVFR and possibly
IFR late tonight into early Sunday morning as showers arrive.
Current cigs at 4-6 kft will slowly lower while coverage increases,
reaching MVFR levels and becoming ovc by around 10Z at ALB/GFL/POU
and possibly a few hours earlier, before 06Z, at PSF. Shower
coverage increases from southwest to northeast, with MVFR vsbys
during rain showers after 10Z Sun along the Hudson Valley, and by 12-
14Z farther east at PSF. Cigs may continue to trend downward,
possibly reaching IFR levels after 15Z Sun. MVFR/IFR conditions
within rain showers will then continue through the remainder of the
period to 00Z Mon.

Southeast winds around 10-15 kt are expected throughout the period
at all terminals. Occasional gusts of 15-20 kt are additionally
possible at ALB/PSF. Late in the period, after 15Z Sun, winds will
begin to shift slightly out of the south to southeast. Low-level
wind shear may approach 30 kt out out of the south-southwest across
the region after 12-15Z Sun, but is at this point expected to remain
below thresholds.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Picard
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Picard