-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
896
FXUS61 KALY 050537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
137 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As a storm system approaches from the west, rain will overspread
the area late tonight and continue through much of the day on
Sunday, with much cooler temperatures. Clouds will break for
some sun on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the
region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the
threat for showers returns to the region for Wednesday and into
the latter portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Radar and observations indicating showers with
measurable rainfall have made it into parts of the eastern
Catskills and Mid Hudson Valley, so have sped up the arrival of
likely PoPs in this area. Fairly sharp gradient along the
northern edge of the showers, so areas from around I-90
northward will remain dry for the next few hours before showers
arrive. The steadiest rainfall will develop prior to sunrise
across the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks, with a low level
S-SW flow. Overall, just some minor adjustments to the forecast
through the rest of the night.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1020]...Light rain showers and overcast skies
are moving into the region from the southwest, although surface
dewpoint depressions greater than 10 degrees persist outside of
the southern Mid-Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills; even
Poughkeepsie ASOS is still reporting an 11F dewpoint depression
as of 10 PM EDT. As the column saturates, light precipitation
will begin to reach the ground through the overnight period and
will continue for much of the day on Sunday resulting in a
soaking rain for most of the region. With only minor updates
made to the arrival time of rain showers overnight, the forecast
remains largely on track.

At the surface, high pressure (around 1030 hpa) is exiting off
the coast of Maine and will continue to slowly depart off to the
east tonight. Meanwhile, a slow moving frontal boundary is
located over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes and it will be
heading towards the area for tonight into Sunday.

As the ridge axis continues to depart off to the east tonight,
warm advection thanks a southerly low level jet around 30 kts
will allow for a period of fairly steady rain showers to spread
towards the area for the late night hours. 18z HRRR suggest
this will be spreading across southern and western areas after
midnight and expanding northeast across the area for the late
night hours. Rainfall looks fairly light in intensity overall,
but all areas will be see rainfall by daybreak, with up to a
quarter inch of rainfall occurring by sunrise Sunday. Southerly
winds will be starting to pick up by the late night as well,
especially in the larger north-south valleys.

After another mild and comfortable day, temps will drop this
evening and will continue to fall for tonight with the rain
spreading into the area. Most areas will see lows in the mid to
upper 40s (some spots may bottom out right around 50).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west, most of
Sunday looks to be fairly wet and damp with periods of showers
through the entire day, with the steadiest and heaviest rainfall
across northern and western areas. Temps will be held down and
steady due to the persistent clouds and precip, with most spots
being held into the lower to middle 50s through the day.
Overall, additional precip on Sunday will be one third to two
thirds of an inch of rainfall. While this won`t be enough to
cause any hydro issues (especially within greenup starting to
occur), it still make for some wet and soggy conditions
outdoors.

Although the steadiest precip will be done for Sunday evening,
some showers may still linger into Sunday night as the main
frontal boundary crosses the area from west to east overnight.
Otherwise, it will remain cloudy and damp with some patchy fog
and temps in the upper 40s.

On Monday, clouds will eventually break for some sun by the mid
to late morning hours. A stray shower or sprinkle is still
possible for some high terrain or eastern areas, but most spots
should be dry on Monday. Temps will be mild once again,
especially once the sun returns by Monday afternoon, when temps
should reach back into the 70s for valley areas. Quiet weather
will continue into Monday night, with skies becoming mainly
clear and lows falling into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will begin will high pressure and upper
level ridging close to the area on Tuesday. This should allow
for a nice day with plenty of sun and rather mild temps. Many
valley areas may reach into the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday
afternoon.

However, the quiet and pleasant weather will only be short lived,
as the ridge will be breaking down for the middle to latter
portion of the week. The first in a series of shortwaves will be
moving across the area on Wednesday. Guidance suggest a wave of
low pressure will be tracking over or just north of the area.
As a result, a period of showers is expected for Wednesday and
some thunder will be possible as well (especially southern
areas). It should still be fairly mild with temps in the 60s and
70s once again.

Behind this initial disturbance, additional storms are expected
to impact the region, as an upper level trough sets up over the
Northeast and disturbances rotate across the region. With more
wet weather expected for Thursday through the weekend, will
continue to go with chc to likely POPs each day. A few
additional rumbles of thunder are possible from time to time as
well, although it will depend on just how much instability is
available. Temps still look close to normal, with highs in the
60s and overnight lows in the 40s to near 50 through the late
week and no threat for any frost/freeze in areas where the
growing season has begun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 06Z Monday...A frontal system approaching from the west
will bring occasional rain to the TAF sites through most of
Sunday.

As of 130 AM EDT, band of mainly light rain currently extends
from eastern Catskills into mid Hudson Valley/NW CT, affecting
KPOU. This light rain will continue slowly expanding northeast
through daybreak, encompassing all TAF sites by 12Z/Sun.
Initially, the rain will be light with VFR Vsbys and VFR to MVFR
Cigs. Cigs will then lower to low MVFR through most of Sunday,
with areas of IFR possible, especially within any heavier
pockets of rain, and also across some higher terrain areas.
Vsbys will vary between VFR and MVFR, although some IFR Vsbys
could occur within any moderate rainfall.

Steady rain should taper off from west to east between roughly
22Z/Sun-03Z/Mon. Some lingering showers/drizzle and areas of fog
will be possible in the wake of the steady rain tonight through
early Monday morning, with MVFR/IFR Vsbys and IFR Cigs likely.

Winds will be mainly southeast to south at 8-12 KT through
Sunday, with some gusts up to 20-25 KT, especially at KALB.
Winds will become south to southwest and decrease to 5-10 KT
later Sunday evening.

Low level wind shear is possible at any TAF sites where winds
decrease to less than 10 KT Sunday afternoon. At this time, it
appears winds at the TAF sites will remain above this level, so
no low level wind shear has been indicated at this time, however
trends will need to be watched for possible subsequent
inclusion.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Picard/JPV
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...KL