Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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485 FXUS61 KALY 212346 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 746 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact parts of the region late tonight into early Sunday morning with some heavy downpours. In the wake of this, dangerously hot and humid conditions are expected to develop across the entire region for the rest of the weekend into early next week. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms will be possible by the middle of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Message: - Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight into early Sunday morning, especially for areas north and west of the Capital District. - Hot and humid conditions will begin on Sunday afternoon. Heat Advisories remain in effect for valley areas due to an increased for heat-related health impacts. Discussion: As of 348 PM EDT...A surface warm front is located southwest of the region and this will be lifting northward for late today into tonight. A large MCS can be seen on satellite imagery over the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. Lightning detection is showing plenty of strikes over the area as well. This activity will be heading eastward and will be getting close to the region for later in the overnight. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the region, with just some cu and passing cirrus. The cumulus clouds don`t have much vertical growth to them at this time. Based on current radar and satellite and latest CAMs, it should stay precip-free through the evening with limited forcing in place. With a west-southwest flow aloft, temps have been rising. 850 hpa temps started out close to +10 C according to this morning`s 12Z KALY sounding, but should be rising to +18 to +20 C by late tonight behind the departing warm front. While it should be dry through the late evening hours, chance for precip will increase for the late night and into the early morning hours on Sunday. CAMs are showing differing solutions regarding the exact track and evolution of convection during this time period. The MCS has been holding together through the entire day today and it is expected to continue into tonight, as model soundings show there should be sufficient instability aloft. Although there will likely be a surface inversion late tonight, there should be an unstable environment aloft, with MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. CAMs (including the 3km HRRR) show lots of shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts as this complex moves through the region. At this point, it appears northern and eastern areas have the best chance of seeing this activity, mainly somewhere in the 4 AM to 10 AM time period. The elevated instability could allow for plenty of thunder and even some hail, although it`s hard to say if winds will be able to break through the surface inversion. At this point, a quick heavy downpour and some lightning seem like the most likely scenario, but can`t rule out some isolated wind damage or hail. SPC maintains a marginal risk for much of the area (some parts of the Adirondacks are in the a Slight Risk). Behind this complex, skies should quickly become partly to mostly sunny for Sunday afternoon as a strong upper level ridge takes over. There is a very low chance for additional convection to develop, but the lack of a trigger, warm temps aloft and strong ridging should help mitigate this potential. The morning rainfall will help boost the low-level moisture, making dewpoints very high in the low to mid 70s. With the very warm temps aloft, max temps will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s across much of the region. Some heat index values will exceed 95 degrees in valley areas, so Heat Advisory continues for lower terrain areas. Heat-related health impacts are anticipated. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Dangerous heat will continue Monday into Tuesday. Feels-like temperatures could approach 110 degrees in some valley areas Monday and/or Tuesday. Discussion: The strong upper level ridge is expected to hold across the region for Sunday Night through Tuesday. 598 dm ridge will be centered just southwest of the area over the mid Atlantic States. 850 hpa temps will be +20 to +22C and full sunshine is expected for both Monday and Tuesday. The extreme heat will allow for valley areas to see high temps well into the 90s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will be as high as 100 to 110 degrees in valley areas, so a Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the Hudson Valley. The latest NBM probability shows about a 25% chance of the max temperature reaching 100 degrees at KALB on Monday and around a 50% chance on Tuesday. This hasn`t occurred since September 1953, so this would be a big deal if it happens. Have also gone with a Heat Advisory for much of the area, including many high terrain areas on both Monday and Tuesday. Heat impacts are likely, especially since overnight lows will remain elevated in the 70s in valley areas, so little relief is expected during the overnight and dewpoints will stay unusually high. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper level ridge will start to get squashed down during the long term period. It will stay be fairly warm on Wednesday temps near 90 in some valley areas, but cooler weather is expected for Thursday and Friday as upper level heights start to fall and temps aloft drop. Highs will only be in the 70s to low 80s for Thursday and Friday with more clouds around. There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms each day during the long term period as upper level disturbances slide across the northern side of the ridge, especially Wednesday and Friday. Too early to say if any strong storms are expected, but certainly a potential if enough shear and instability were to overlap. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions continue through 06z for all TAF sites. For KPOU, VFR conditions are forecasted to continue through the TAF period as shower activity is forecasted to remain to the north and east. For KGFL and KALB, confidence is highest for this TAF site to see rain showers between 06z and 09z where conditions could become a mix of MVFR/IFR which has been included in a TEMPO group. After 09z, forecast confidence is still below 30 percent for the potential of thunderstorms to move through between 09z and 13z bringing IFR conditions so kept mention of thunderstorm activity in PROB30 groups. For KPSF, mentioned the rain shower activity between 9z and 12z. After 12z, forecast confidence is still below 30 percent for thunderstorm activity so kept mention between 12z and 14z in a PROB30 group. Between 14z and 18z, conditions return to VFR and a few lingering high clouds remain. Kept mention of LLWS for all TAF sites between 06z and 14z. Stronger wind gusts up to 30 knots could occur in thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning. Winds become southerly for tomorrow afternoon with periodically gusting between 12 and 19 knots. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for June 23 and June 24: June 23 Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1888 Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 1965 Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1894 June 24: Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1943 Poughkeepsie, NY: Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 2013 Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1914 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ013. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ038>041-043- 048>050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ038>040-047-048-051-054-058-063. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ041-043-049-050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ042-082. MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ001- 025. VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ015. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Webb CLIMATE...Speciale