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485
FXUS61 KALY 212346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
746 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
impact parts of the region late tonight into early Sunday morning
with some heavy downpours. In the wake of this, dangerously hot
and humid conditions are expected to develop across the entire
region for the rest of the weekend into early next week. Another
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be possible by the
middle of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

- Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible late
  tonight into early Sunday morning, especially for areas north
  and west of the Capital District.

- Hot and humid conditions will begin on Sunday afternoon. Heat
  Advisories remain in effect for valley areas due to an
  increased for heat-related health impacts.

Discussion:

As of 348 PM EDT...A surface warm front is located southwest
of the region and this will be lifting northward for late today into
tonight. A large MCS can be seen on satellite imagery over the
Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. Lightning detection is showing
plenty of strikes over the area as well. This activity will be
heading eastward and will be getting close to the region for
later in the overnight.

Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the
region, with just some cu and passing cirrus. The cumulus clouds
don`t have much vertical growth to them at this time. Based on
current radar and satellite and latest CAMs, it should stay
precip-free through the evening with limited forcing in place.

With a west-southwest flow aloft, temps have been rising. 850
hpa temps started out close to +10 C according to this morning`s
12Z KALY sounding, but should be rising to +18 to +20 C by late
tonight behind the departing warm front.

While it should be dry through the late evening hours, chance
for precip will increase for the late night and into the early
morning hours on Sunday. CAMs are showing differing solutions
regarding the exact track and evolution of convection during
this time period. The MCS has been holding together through the
entire day today and it is expected to continue into tonight, as
model soundings show there should be sufficient instability
aloft. Although there will likely be a surface inversion late
tonight, there should be an unstable environment aloft, with
MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. CAMs (including the 3km HRRR)
show lots of shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts as this
complex moves through the region. At this point, it appears
northern and eastern areas have the best chance of seeing this
activity, mainly somewhere in the 4 AM to 10 AM time period. The
elevated instability could allow for plenty of thunder and even
some hail, although it`s hard to say if winds will be able to
break through the surface inversion. At this point, a quick
heavy downpour and some lightning seem like the most likely
scenario, but can`t rule out some isolated wind damage or hail.
SPC maintains a marginal risk for much of the area (some parts
of the Adirondacks are in the a Slight Risk).

Behind this complex, skies should quickly become partly to
mostly sunny for Sunday afternoon as a strong upper level ridge
takes over. There is a very low chance for additional convection
to develop, but the lack of a trigger, warm temps aloft and
strong ridging should help mitigate this potential. The morning
rainfall will help boost the low-level moisture, making
dewpoints very high in the low to mid 70s. With the very warm
temps aloft, max temps will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s across
much of the region. Some heat index values will exceed 95
degrees in valley areas, so Heat Advisory continues for lower
terrain areas. Heat-related health impacts are anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Dangerous heat will continue Monday into Tuesday. Feels-like
  temperatures could approach 110 degrees in some valley areas
  Monday and/or Tuesday.

Discussion:

The strong upper level ridge is expected to hold across the
region for Sunday Night through Tuesday. 598 dm ridge will be
centered just southwest of the area over the mid Atlantic
States. 850 hpa temps will be +20 to +22C and full sunshine is
expected for both Monday and Tuesday. The extreme heat will
allow for valley areas to see high temps well into the 90s. With
dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will be as high as
100 to 110 degrees in valley areas, so a Extreme Heat Warning
has been issued for the Hudson Valley. The latest NBM
probability shows about a 25% chance of the max temperature reaching
100 degrees at KALB on Monday and around a 50% chance on
Tuesday. This hasn`t occurred since September 1953, so this
would be a big deal if it happens. Have also gone with a Heat
Advisory for much of the area, including many high terrain areas
on both Monday and Tuesday. Heat impacts are likely, especially
since overnight lows will remain elevated in the 70s in valley
areas, so little relief is expected during the overnight and
dewpoints will stay unusually high.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper level ridge will start to get squashed down during the
long term period. It will stay be fairly warm on Wednesday temps
near 90 in some valley areas, but cooler weather is expected for
Thursday and Friday as upper level heights start to fall and
temps aloft drop. Highs will only be in the 70s to low 80s for
Thursday and Friday with more clouds around. There could be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day during the long
term period as upper level disturbances slide across the
northern side of the ridge, especially Wednesday and Friday. Too
early to say if any strong storms are expected, but certainly a
potential if enough shear and instability were to overlap.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions continue through 06z for all TAF sites. For KPOU,
VFR conditions are forecasted to continue through the TAF
period as shower activity is forecasted to remain to the north
and east.

For KGFL and KALB, confidence is highest for this TAF site to
see rain showers between 06z and 09z where conditions could
become a mix of MVFR/IFR which has been included in a TEMPO
group. After 09z, forecast confidence is still below 30
percent for the potential of thunderstorms to move through
between 09z and 13z bringing IFR conditions so kept mention of
thunderstorm activity in PROB30 groups. For KPSF, mentioned the
rain shower activity between 9z and 12z. After 12z, forecast
confidence is still below 30 percent for thunderstorm activity
so kept mention between 12z and 14z in a PROB30 group. Between
14z and 18z, conditions return to VFR and a few lingering high
clouds remain.

Kept mention of LLWS for all TAF sites between 06z and 14z.
Stronger wind gusts up to 30 knots could occur in thunderstorms
overnight into tomorrow morning. Winds become southerly for
tomorrow afternoon with periodically gusting between 12 and 19
knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for June 23 and June 24:

June 23
Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1888
Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 1965
Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1894

June 24:
Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1943 Poughkeepsie, NY:
Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 2013
Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1914

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ038>041-043-
     048>050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ038>040-047-048-051-054-058-063.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ041-043-049-050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ042-082.
MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ015.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Webb
CLIMATE...Speciale