Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 172358 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 758 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in across eastern New York and western New England tonight with diminishing winds and cold conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue for the remainder of the weekend. A weak disturbance will bring in some clouds to open the work week with unseasonably cold conditions continuing. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 745 pm, backdoor cold front pushed southward across the forecast area over the last several hours, giving a jump start to the falling diurnal temperature trace in some spots as winds shifted from NW to NE. Frigid wind chills in the single digits and teens from the Capital District on north and across the higher terrain early this evening as winds remain elevated in the wake of the front with high pressure well off to the northwest in southwestern Quebec. Tweaked current temps and winds to better reflect current conditions. Will have to continue to watch temps as decoupling may result in a quick drop, though the surface high is not in an ideal spot for radiational cooling. Previous discussion... An upper level trough will continue to impact the region. A cold front will continue to move south and east of southern NY and New England this afternoon. A few flurries and snow showers will linger across the southern Greens and western Adirondacks with some dustings of snow possible, but the clouds will gradually clear with the subsidence in the wake of the front. The winds have been gusty this afternoon due to deep mixing from 3-5 kft AGL and a strong sfc pressure gradient in place. Gusts to 38 kts were noted at KAQW, 41 kts at KALB and KPSF this afternoon. The winds should gradually subside late this afternoon and early this evening with the sfc anticyclone building in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Ontario. Clear skies, light to calm winds coupled with the snow pack will promote ideal radiational cooling conditions with lows falling into single digits north and west of the Capital District with a few below zero readings in the southern Greens, and southern Adirondacks, with low to mid teens mainly from the Tri Cites south down the mid-Hudson Valley and across NW CT. Tomorrow will feature fair and dry weather with the sfc high building in overheard. The winds will be much less than today, but temps will be colder than normal by 10 to 15 degrees with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the valleys, except in the mid Hudson Valley, and southern Litchfield CTY where some mid and upper 30s are possible. Expect teens to mid 20s over the mountains. Some mid and high clouds will increase from the south and west during the afternoon ahead a warm front, weak clipper low and associated mid level short-wave passing from northwest to southeast over the lower Great Lakes Region into west-central PA. All and all, a cold and dry day to close the final weekend of astronomical Winter.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will be building into the region in the wake of a cold front on Monday. A low pressure system will be moving across the Carolinas on Tuesday and it may be close enough to spread some clouds across our region, although any precipitation from this system will remain to our south. Overall the short term period looks to stay cold with windy conditions during the day both Monday and Tuesday due to a fairly strong pressure gradient across the region. Lows Sunday night will be mainly 5 below to 15 above zero with highs on Monday in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Lows Monday night will be in the single digits and teens with highs on Tuesday in the mid 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As we inch closer to mid-week, models are now closing in. The consensus is that the storm will stay far enough south that we will get nothing. In fact, the 12Z runs of both the GFS and ECMWF have the northern edge of precipitation down around New York City. The system is also faster, affecting the mid-Atlantic entirely on Tuesday. The first clue that this would actually be a miss for us was the result of the 00Z GFS run. It was the first 00Z GFS run that kept the whole system well south. The 12Z NAM brings things a little closer, but still keeps all activity well south of at least the Capital Region. Going with the Superblend, we are high and dry all the way from now until the end of next week. A ridge of high pressure which will become organized from James Bay to the Gulf Coast during mid-week will make its way slowly east. On Saturday, it will stretch from James Bay to Florida. The result for us will be the greatest amount of sunshine during this period being on Saturday. High temperatures will initially increase slightly day-to-day in the lower terrain, then steady off. The snow-covered high peaks will remain just under the freezing mark. Highs Wednesday will range from around 30 degrees in the higher the upper 30s down the Hudson Valley through the southern zones. By Saturday, highs will range from the upper 20 in the high peaks to the lower 40s or so down the Hudson Valley. Normal highs and lows at Albany are in the upper 40s and upper 20s, consecutively. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Mainly clear skies expected through the TAF period under subsident northwesterly midlevel flow. A few to scattered midlevel clouds may develop Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions should prevail. Winds shifted sharply from the northwest to the northeast earlier this evening at KALB/KGFL as a backdoor cold front tracked through. As a ridge of high pressure noses in, expect wind speeds of around 10 kt early in the TAF period to diminish and become light and variable or light northwesterly after around 06Z. West-northwesterly winds should not be as high Sunday afternoon compared with Saturday, with mainly 8 to 14 kt expected with some gusts to 20 kt at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Sunday Night to Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... The Fire Weather season has officially begun across eastern New York and western New England. Despite this, snow cover is in place across much of the region, which will mitigate any potential fire weather hazards for the time being. High pressure will build in across eastern New York and western New England tonight with diminishing winds and cold conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue for the remainder of the weekend. A weak disturbance will bring in some clouds to open the work week with unseasonably cold conditions continuing. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week. A slow diurnal snowmelt is expected the next several days, where temperatures get above freezing during the day, and then fall below at night. The impacts on the waterways will be little to none with minimal, if any, rises. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Thompson/Wasula SHORT TERM...11/NAS LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...Wasula HYDROLOGY...11/NAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.