Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FGUS71 KALY 021158
ESFALY

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
758 AM EST Fri Apr 2 2021

...Flood threat is below normal for this time of year...

The spring flood potential is below for this time of year due to
much diminished, below normal snowpack.

A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does not
address the potential for ice jam flooding.

This is the seventh and final in a series of hydrologic outlooks
issued by the National Weather Service every two weeks...which
refers to the potential for flooding across eastern New York State,
southern Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield
County Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the
Hudson, Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from April 2nd through
the 16th.


...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS

The only remaining hydrologically significant snowpack in the
service area is in the highest elevations of the western Adirondacks
and southern Green Mountains. In those few remaining locations,
basin average snow depths top out around two inches with a paltry
liquid equivalent around half an inch.


...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, snowmelt
over the past two weeks has boosted 28 day streamflow averages
across western New England and eastern New York back to near normal
levels. Below normal levels remain across the Litchfield Hills of
Connecticut, as well as a few isolated below normal levels in the
Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson. Per USGS monitoring wells,
groundwater levels remain widely variable between above normal and
much below normal range.


...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

The threat for ice jams has ended for the season.


...WATER SUPPLY...

Snowmelt (and some rainfall) has continued to fill reservoirs across
the service area. New York City Department of Environmental
Protection (NYCDEP) water supply reservoirs have increased to 98.7
percent of capacity, which is 3.1 percent above normal storage
capacity.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels range
from just a tenth of a foot below normal at Sixth Lake to just over
six feet above normal at Great Sacandaga Reservoir. First Lake is
sitting about a half foot above normal, Stillwater Reservoir is just
over a foot and a half above normal and Indian Lake is nearly two
feet above normal.


...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The outlooks for 6 to 10 days (for April 7 to 11) and 8 to 14 days
(for April 9 to 15) call for above normal temperatures and near to
below normal precipitation for the service area.


...SUMMARY...

The spring flood potential is below normal due to a remaining
snowpack that is much below normal for this time of year.

Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook when necessary at
forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

This has been the final Winter/Spring flood outlook of the season.
Flooding can happen at any time of year - stay informed at
www.weather.gov/albany and follow us on Twitter @NWSAlbany

$$
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