Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000 FXUS64 KAMA 021126 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 526 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions are expected to continue at all three TAF sites through 12Z Wednesday. Southwest to south winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 25 knots after 20Z to 22Z today and then diminishing again to around 10 to 20 knots after 00Z Wednesday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 156 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night An upper ridge will prevail across the Panhandles today through Wednesday and Wednesday night providing the forecast area with warmer and continued dry conditions today through Wednesday night. Skies are expected to remain mainly clear except for possibly some high level clouds. A surface trough to the lee of the Rockies today across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico will deepen and allow for increasing southwesterly winds near 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts over the western and northern parts of the forecast area with mainly 10 to 20 mph or 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts across the remainder of the Panhandles. A surface low in southeastern Colorado tonight will track south into northeastern New Mexico Wednesday and allow for a cold front to drop southeast into the Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northwest Texas Panhandle. With the frontal boundary in the vicinity of the Panhandles Wednesday, the pressure gradient should be more relaxed and the winds much lighter. Schneider LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday night... Thursday into Friday there will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms with the next upper level system to impact the combined Panhandles, mainly the northeast half. Winter weather will not be expected with this system as temperatures will be warm in comparison with most recent events. Friday will be cooler with a slight warming trend through the rest of the period. Wednesday evening a closed H5 low pressure system will come on shore in southern CA. This low is progged to propagate NE and end up over CO by Thur afternoon. There will be some PVA with divergence aloft down stream of the trough axis that will introduce some showers and possibly thunderstorms over the FA Thur afternoon into evening. A surface low will set up in SE CO during the afternoon as well with a surface trough extending southward. This surface trough will create a pseudo-dryline down the center of the forecast area mid afternoon, separating dewpoints in the teens to the west from mid to upper 30s to the east. MLCAPE east of this boundary will be in the 100 to 400 J/Kg range adding the possibility of some thunderstorms, mainly in the far eastern combined Panhandles. This instability will move east out of the area late Friday night as the Pacific front propagates east as the surface low moves to the southeast. The H5 low will start to take a southeasterly track with some moisture wrap around keeping light showers possible into early Friday. As the surface low moves off to the southeast winds will shift to the north with an associated cold front early morning. Going into the afternoon winds will be increasing into the 20 to 25 mph range as the pressure gradient tightens up behind the front. These northerly winds will keep Friday a bit cooler, in the mid 50s, compared to the upper 60s and lower 70s on Thursday afternoon. Saturday, slight ridging will occur once this system Thursday night into Friday leaves the area. Expecting afternoon temperatures to return to the 60s on Saturday then lower 70s on Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will trend warmer going into Monday as well with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area Monday morning. Hoffeditz FIRE WEATHER... Today... A surface trough to the lee of the Rockies today across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico will deepen and allow for downsloping southwesterly 20 foot winds to increase to around 15 to 20 mph or 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 35 mph this afternoon. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be as low as 7 to 10 percent. Max RFTI values today will be near 2 to 3 from the western and southwestern Texas Panhandle north and northeast across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles. The RFTIs today will be primarily relative humidity-driven. Will call for elevated fire weather conditions today from around 12 PM to 6 PM for the Oklahoma Panhandle and all but the eastern and southeastern Texas Panhandle. Schneider && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 11/36

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