-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
930
FXUS64 KAMA 032031
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
331 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Morning clouds have begun to clear out, with partly cloudy skies
being observed for the northern and western Panhandles, while the
southeastern TX Panhandle remains cloudy. Starting to see on
satellite a cumulus field trying to grow vertically in eastern New
Mexico near Tucumcari, and to a lesser extent the Texas
Panhandle, suggesting some instability that is still inhibited by
a cap. With much of the afternoon left, it`s becoming more
plausible that the cap could be breached in eastern New Mexico and
the western Panhandles and at least a few thunderstorms will be
able to develop later as the dryline mixes east. If so, MLCAPE
values between 1000- 2000 J/kg are possible in the western
Panhandles along with 30-40 kts effective shear, suggesting any
thunderstorm will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. A tornado can`t be ruled out in the western Panhandles
later in the afternoon through the early evening, but seems
unlikely at this time. It`s possible that any thunderstorm that
can develop would begin to weaken as it moves into a more stable
airmass in the central Texas Panhandle this evening. There is a
signal that additional thunderstorms will be able to develop in
the Oklahoma Panhandle this evening but the signal is rather weak
among the CAMs.

Tonight, a squall line is expected to develop in western Kansas
along a cold front. Current expectation is that it will produce an
outflow boundary that advances ahead and chokes off the access to
unstable air and weakens before it reaches the Oklahoma Panhandle.
However, this cold front will make its way through the Panhandles
tonight, and it`s possible that a moderately strong and moist
southerly LLJ will ascend above the cold front and help develop
showers and thunderstorms. If so, there may be enough elevated
instability for the threat of overnight large hail. With that said,
the CAMs are not at all excited about the potential for rain tonight
while the global models are. NBM seems to be siding with the global
models by giving 50-80% PoPs. Feel as though this is too aggressive
right now given CAM agreement and underwhelming upper-level support,
thus have decreased PoPs to generally 20-50% tonight.

Tomorrow, the Panhandles will be behind the cold front and the
surface winds turn from easterly to southeasterly. Clouds should
once again be prevalent across the area but perhaps may break up
some in the afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach western
Texas in the afternoon, but it appears the better forcing for ascent
and moisture will be located to the south of the Panhandles. There
is a chance that some rain and embedded thunder will make its way up
into the southern Texas Panhandle as a result of some more
significant thunderstorm activity outside of the CWA, but for now,
it doesn`t look to be a widespread rain event or much of a
beneficial rain event. Once again, NBM is quite aggressive with the
PoPs tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Have opted to
decrease the rain chances in general, especially in the northern
Panhandles tomorrow evening. Still feel PoPs are still too high
tomorrow night but will leave it for now.

Vanden Bosch
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Lingering slight chance to chance pops Sunday morning will quickly
diminish from west to east by afternoon as the upper level shortwave
trof moves east of the region.

Attention then turns to a much stronger upper level low pressure
storm system slated to move across the central and northern Rockies
and adjacent plains Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered
by the latest short and medium range models indicates more of a
dry, windy, and warm scenario for most of the OK and TX Panhandles.
The far eastern zones may retain just enough moisture for a long
enough time frame ahead of the eastward moving dryline Monday
morning into the afternoon hours to warrant a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms. NBM pop values for that area look
reasonable and were included in the grids. Winds may approach or
exceed advisory criteria across parts of the western and central
sections on Monday due to the rather steep pressure gradient. Dry
weather and above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, followed by passage of another cold front Wednesday
night which will lead to cooler temperatures on Thursday. Medium
range models and associated ensembles are in reasonable agreement
and were accepted.

02
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR to MVFR ceilings are present over KAMA and KDHT but should
gradually rise through the afternoon to VFR. A thunderstorm is
possible at KAMA and KDHT later this afternoon through tonight,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.
Low-level wind shear is expected briefly at KGUY just ahead of the
cold front, from 06z to 09z. A cold front moves in tonight and
changes winds to the north. A return to MVFR ceilings is possible
at KAMA in the morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Depending on how much rain falls through the weekend and where
such rainfall occurs will dictate any fire weather concerns early
next week. Based on latest numerical weather model guidance and
rainfall forecasts, elevated to critical fire weather conditions
may develop across much of the western and central sections of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday due to strong
winds and low relative humidity values along with the possibility
of dry fuels and little greenup in locations that have not had
much rain during the past several weeks.

02
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                50  68  51  74 /  30  30  60  20
Beaver OK                  48  70  49  75 /  50  20  40  30
Boise City OK              42  65  44  76 /  40  10  20  20
Borger TX                  51  72  52  78 /  20  30  50  20
Boys Ranch TX              49  71  50  80 /  20  20  50  20
Canyon TX                  49  69  51  75 /  30  30  60  20
Clarendon TX               53  68  53  72 /  30  40  60  30
Dalhart TX                 44  68  45  76 /  20  10  40  20
Guymon OK                  45  68  47  75 /  40  10  30  20
Hereford TX                50  69  51  77 /  20  30  60  20
Lipscomb TX                51  69  51  75 /  40  30  60  30
Pampa TX                   51  68  51  74 /  20  30  60  30
Shamrock TX                54  69  53  73 /  40  40  60  40
Wellington TX              55  71  54  73 /  40  50  60  40
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52