Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000 FXUS63 KAPX 191856 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 256 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 ...Much colder air arrives... High impact weather potential: Another freeze expected across our vulnerable fruit growing areas of northwest lower Michigan tonight. Lingering gales. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Sharp shortwave trough rotating across the northern Great Lakes early this afternoon, with its attendant surface low pressure pivoting east across northern Ontario. Cold front extends south from this low, making steady east progress across Lake Huron. Gusty west winds ushering in a shot of much colder air behind this front, with falling temperature into the 30s across the western Great Lakes (with wind chill values several degrees colder yet). While most widespread and organized showers have now exited off to our east, burgeoning lake processes and "wrap around" moisture are resulting in increasing snow shower activity across the snow belts of central and western upper Michigan. Winter-like airmass will continue to spill into the area tonight...bringing more hard freeze concerns and light lake effect snow showers as it does so. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Main emphasis is on temperature trends, attendant freeze concerns, and light lake effect snow potential tonight. Details: Expect lake effect snow showers to increase in coverage and intensity into the snow belts of eastern upper Michigan later this afternoon and evening as H8 temperatures fall into the negative teens across Lake Superior and synoptic moisture contribution increases. Limited inversion heights (just a bit over 5kft) and a relatively short window for most organized snow showers (best parameters exit east quickly later this evening) should keep snow amounts light, on the order of an inch or two. Much less favorable conditions across Lake Michigan, with more limited synoptic contribution, even lower inversion heights, and a noted inverted-v signature on guidance derived soundings. Can`t rule out a few lake effect snow showers into northwest lower Michigan, but both coverage and intensity will be minimal. Much more impactful concern tonight will be temperatures. Despite completely unfavorable radiational cooling conditions with gusty winds and lake clouds, simple magnitude of cold air advection will result in temperatures falling below freezing across the area (wind chill readings in the teens and 20s!). Freeze warning already issued for our vulnerable fruit growing areas along the northwest lower coastline. Unfortunately, next couple night look as cold, if not even a few degrees colder. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 High impact weather potential: Freeze conditions possible. Broad upper-level troughing will continue over the Great Lakes region although surface high pressure will build into the forecast area along with drier air. This will produce mostly quiet weather throughout this forecast period...with partly to mostly cloudy skies and cool weather as a generally north to northwesterly wind continues to usher in cooler air from Canada. With -10 to -12C still at 850mb, lingering moisture, and lake temperatures around 3C, we can expect lake clouds to be a nuisance through at least late Wednesday. Thursday will get a bit warmer as warmer air begins to wrap around the top of the ridge and spill into northern Michigan. As mentioned above, mostly north to northwesterly flow will continue to usher in cold temperatures through Wednesday, producing daytime temperatures well below normal for this time of the year...some locations will continue to run about 10-15 degrees below normal, only reaching into the mid 30s to low 40s. Temperatures will continue to only reach into the low 20s to low 30s at night...with the possibility of getting colder if clouds diminish and winds stay down in intensity. Will have to protect sensitive vegetation since a lot has blossomed and/or bloomed already...which is way too early, we still have a lot of cold nights in store for the next several weeks. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 A rather progressive weather pattern will continue, but no "big storms" at the moment. Forecast models are in fairly good consensus of northern Michigan seeing more dry weather with mostly high pressure overhead and only a couple of periods with a weak disturbance moving through, producing some chances of precipitation. More seasonable temperatures should return for the long term forecast period as a more southerly flow develops. Overnight temperatures will drop into the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 MVFR to low end VFR CIGS will be common through tonight, with much colder air and growing overlake instability, possibly leading to scattered lake effect rain and snow showers that would primarily impact TVC/PLN. No serious VSBY impacts expected from the showers. Some improvement in cigs is expected heading through Tuesday morning. Gusty west to northwest winds expected to continue through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 A tight pressure gradient and unstable over-water thermal regime will continue to bring advisory and low end gale force winds to the nearshore waters tonight...with some advisory winds lingering right through Tuesday. Expect wind speeds to decrease below advisory levels Tuesday night as the pressure gradient slackens. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for MIZ020-021-025-026-031-099. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ348-349. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>347. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-344>346. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341-342. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ322. GALE WARNING from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321. && $$ NEAR TERM...MB SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...MB MARINE...MB

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