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467
FXUS63 KAPX 131049
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
649 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies and dry weather Today

- Gradual warming trend through mid week

- Next chances for rain arrive Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Current satellite and radar shows most showers have moved out of
northern MI this morning. Some clouds are lingering over eastern
upper, however skies over northern lower are becoming mostly clear.
Calm winds and lingering moisture will allow mist and some areas
of fog to form this morning.

Smoke from wildfires over western CAN will move over MI today. A
post frontal environment will bring the smoke and haze down to the
surface. Surface observations in WI/MN showed visibilities down to 2
SM due to haze yesterday. Due to this there is an Air Quality Alert
for all of MI today. Temperatures will be in the high 70s to mid 80s
today with west to southwest winds of 10 mph and occasional gusts up
to 15 mph. Lows tonight will dip into the 50s for most
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A trailing frontal boundary will attempt to move over northern MI
Monday, however building upper ridging and dry southwesterlies will
overcome this attempt - resulting in partly cloudy skies at best.
Temperatuers will be on the climb early this week, reaching into the
high 80s and low 90s by Tuesday.

A weak, convective driven, upper wave will advect deep gulf moisture
up towards the Great Lakes region mid week. This moisture will meet
up with a shortwave rotating through a broad upper trough over much
of CAN and the northern North American continent mid week. A quasi-
stationary W/E front will likely be draped over the Great Lakes
somewhere as a surface high tracks east over Ontario CAN and battles
with southwesterlies. If all of these features align, this could set
up repeated rounds of heavy rain along that boundary (mean ensemble
PWAT is > 1.5") Wednesday into Thursday. The question is 1) if these
features will align and 2) if they will align over northern MI.
Weaker confidence exists in the convective waves path, as things can
change quickly and possibly move that to the west or east of
MI. If that is the case, deep moisture will still return to MI
with the shortwave rotating through the broad upper trough - but
the window for repeated rounds of rain will be shortened. For
now, we can say (with confidence) that widespread clouds and
rain will return to the area mid week. There is large
disagreement on the forecast for the end of the work week and
into the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Another hour or two of BR/FG and any associated lower CIGs,
then VFR CIGs through today. Main question throughout today will
be the impact of the wildfire smoke overhead. Based on upstream
observations from yesterday, VIS reductions seem plausible,
with MVFR VSBYs mentioned at terminals. This will have to be
monitored and fine tuned. Otherwise, precipitation free weather
through the period with westerly winds today gusting 15 to 20KTs
at times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD