Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000 FXUS63 KAPX 261740 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 140 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain today...some gusty thunderstorms possible this afternoon? - Rain changes to snow this evening with some lake effect snow showers possible overnight. - Windy and mild today with temperatures dropping tonight with passage of a cold front. - Nuisance lingering showers Wednesday into Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 989mb surface low is a bit nw of AUW/Wausau WI, lifting ne-ward in the direction of MQT. A cold front extends southward, down the length of IL. A stalled warm front is in its typical position, just south of the Straits. Surface dew points are rising near or into the 40s south of this boundary, with s to sse surface winds. Ese winds across eastern upper MI, with temps (and dew points) stuck in the upper 30s. Somewhat better rainfall rates are seen this morning in easter upper MI, and with some elevated showers in nw lower. Elsewhere, windswept drizzle is common. It is /not/ a nice-looking morning outside the window. Sporadic showers and/or drizzle will continue, up until the cold front goes thru (and even after). But the front is the primary focus for convection and more organized/enhanced rainfall rates. There`s a lot of wind just off the surface; observed 12Z APX sounding had 50kt southerly winds less than 1500ft off the surface. We are overcast for now; a few small breaks are seen in central Lake MI, but more so in southern WI and parts of IL. We won`t get a lot of SbCape today, but it won`t take much to result in a wind threat (see SPC day 1 outlook products). For now, feel it is somewhat more likely for this instability to be realized in the south half of lower MI. Recent HRRR hourly progs keep 250+ J/kg just to our south. Overall, the above is in agreement with the most recent day 1 outlook from SPC. The severe threat is higher downstate than here, but isn`t zero here. Any development of SbCape here would also coincide with gustier synoptic winds, as any vertical mixing would mix into stronger winds aloft. Will be keeping a close eye on wind trends as the day proceeds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Full-latitude split long wave trough encompasses basically the western 2/3 of North America...with several short waves rotating through the mean trough position. Primary short wave trough/closed low lifting northeast from the central Plains into the midwest...with a couple smaller features over New Mexico/west Texas. Another southern branch low was off the mid Atlantic coast blocked by an expansive downstream closed high over the central Atlantic. Positive tilt northern branch short wave trough centered over southern Saskatchewan. Axis of deeper moisture extends from the western Gulf into Wisconsin/Upper Michigan (+2 to +3 sigma precipitable water anomalies)...with a narrow surge of low level moisture across the lower/mid Mississippi Valley aided by a 70- 80kt low level jet across Mississippi/western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky. 850mb temperature have warm 18C in the last 24h off the APX sounding. 994mb surface low over central Iowa early this morning...warm front extends northeast across northern Wisconsin and through the Straits of Mackinac. Cold front trails south into western portions of Missouri/Arkansas. Band of rain stretches from Lake Superior south across Lake Michigan and adjacent land areas and into Illinois/ Indiana and the lower Ohio Valley. Rain is ahead of the main upper dynamics/dry conveyor belt and along the precipitable water axis... aided by jet coupling across Wisconsin/Michigan. Still a good bit of drier air in the lower/mid levels per 00z APX/DTX soundings. Central Plains short wave trough lifting northeast today across the Great Lakes...which in turn will bring the surface low across Wisconsin this morning. Pressure falls starting to increase over the surface low so the idea of a few millibars of deepening as it tracks into Wisconsin is quite reasonable. This will put northern Michigan well into the warm sector of this cyclone before a cold front sweeps across Michigan later this afternoon/evening. This will switch winds around to the southwest and allow colder air to sweep across Michigan overnight. Primary Forecast Concerns: Periods of rain today...some gusty thunderstorms possible this afternoon?: First band of rain will continue to progress across northern Lower Michigan this morning...back edge of the rain band should arrive by mid morning though expect more scattered showery precipitation behind this initial wave along leading edge of dry slot (more convective instability). As for thunderstorm potential ahead of approaching cold front...mid level drying behind initial rain band this morning opens a window for some diurnal heating. How much is the question as there is a fair bit of cloud cover upstream. May only end up generating a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE...but given strong kinematic fields in place and a mostly unidirectional wind profile aloft which supports some bowing segments there is a damaging wind threat for any convection that develops. Best time period looks to be in the 2pm to 9pm range...ending from west to east with cold front passage during the late afternoon/evening. Rain changes to snow this evening with some lake effect snow showers possible overnight: Once the cold front and any attendant precipitation departs to the east this evening...cold air and low level moisture wrap into the forecast area. Little secondary dynamic PV anomaly swings across the area later this evening and may squeeze out some more light rain/drizzle...then a transition to more lake convection as 850mb temperature sink toward -10C on Lake Michigan with southwest boundary layer flow. Windy and warm today with temperatures dropping tonight with passage of a cold front: As mentioned earlier expect upstream surface low to strengthen a few more millibars this morning which will further tighten up the pressure gradient across Lower Michigan. This should start to ramp up the gusts at least south of the Straits around daybreak...east/southeast wind component off a long fetch of Lake Huron is keeping temperatures colder across eastern Upper and the tip of the mitt...which is going to make it more difficult to pull momentum down even with increased mechanical mixing/turbulence as the sustained winds pick up. So will not initially go too wild with the wind gusts across eastern Upper (more in the 20 to 30 mph range to start after 12z)...then increasing later this morning to 25 to 35 mph. Across northern Lower higher probabilities (at and above 50 percent) for gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range across northern Lower. Can`t rule out some gusts reaching advisory criteria for northern Lower this morning (45mph)...perhaps even with some of the initial rain moving in with dry low layers and evaporative cooling potential. Strongest wind gust potential expected through midday though winds will remain up through the day. As the cold front crosses Lower Michigan during the late afternoon/evening hours push of cold advection (better mixing/isentropic downsloping plus some isallobaric component) should result in a second round of stronger wind gusts post-cold front (30+ mph gusts...strongest gust potential within 2 hours of cold front passage). As for high temperatures... northwest Lower Michigan starting out the day in the lower to mid 50s but given large dew point spreads expect temperatures to drop into the 40s once the rain arrives. But as the precipitation becomes more spotty during the late morning/early afternoon temperatures expected to rebound back into the 50s away from any cooling influence from onshore flow. Temperatures behind the cold front tonight expected to drop back into the 20s except along the northeast Lower shoreline where lows are expected to be closer to freezing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Strengthening southerly flow through the length of the MS Valley...ahead of strong punch of PV beneath left exit region of 160+kt upper jet and attendant dry slot over the Mid MS/MO Valley...on downstream side of broad, anomalous (-3 standard deviations) troughing over the western/central US. 992mb surface low over NW IA. Loose BCZ stretching northward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...and beyond this, into Hudson Bay and central Quebec. Cold, dry air oozing southward in the wake of this system...as cold front wraps around from surface low, through northern TX, and up the lee of the Rockies. Excellent moisture transport as warm conveyor belt strengthens, with pwats exceeding 1.5in over the lower MS Valley, where another surface cold front denotes the better moisture, and bears abundant convection...while pwats ramp toward an inch up into the Upper Midwest along waning surface warm front. Nice plume of stratiform rain stretches northward into the Upper Great Lakes as of 3z, largely staying over WI and Lake MI attm. Vort max and attendant surface reflection pinwheel across the region today into tonight...with troughing being reinforced going into Wednesday...as a another niblet slips through from central Canada. This should keep lingering showers (most likely snow) going through Wednesday/Wednesday night, especially in SW flow areas. Expecting rising heights and generally improving conditions Thursday...as troughing finally exits, and pressure gradient finally weakens. Despite ridge axis approaching from the west...we may remain just enough under the influence of exiting troughing to keep nuisance clouds, and maybe a few flurries, around going into the end of the work week. Primary Forecast Concerns: NUISANCE LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... Really not a ton to write home about regarding midweek. Looks like PV niblet swinging through could boost lingering LES chances Wednesday afternoon/evening, particularly in SW flow areas...though overlake instability will be marginal, even from 925mb...with some potential for it to fluctuate around or just above "useful". Will hold onto the idea of keeping nuisance snow showers around through Thursday...particularly across the EUP as some deeper moisture pivots in from the northwest with a weak disturbance. Anticipate a shift back to NW flow lake effect over this area later Thursday into Thursday night. All this being said...right now, not seeing any strong signals for accumulation, with some probabilistic guidance struggling to signal even 0.1 inches of snow over a 24hr period, especially after Wednesday morning...though the "best" chances (maybe 20 percent or less) are most favored over the EUP into the Tip of the Mitt where southwest flow /could/ have a better shot at perpetuating lake effect flurries. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridge axis should be nearly overhead to start the extended on Friday...and for now, anticipate things to be relatively quiet in the region...until warm advection brings the next shot of precipitation (form unclear attm) to the region going into Friday night/Saturday. For now...there remains a fair bit of uncertainty as to how this will evolve, depending on how strongly ridging builds into the Upper Midwest late week. A stronger ridge would have a better shot at suppressing any northern stream activity far enough north to preclude it from adding anything to the fray over northern Michigan...though this idea may also keep temperatures from warming too dramatically (as they might ahead of a slightly more amplified system). Still think there is a shot at some precip attempting to slip in from the southwest Saturday into perhaps Saturday night. For now...signals point toward a relatively benign early spring day for Easter Sunday and the last Sunday of March...with high pressure trying to slip into the region from the north. Naturally...still a lot of details to be worked out, so stay tuned. Beyond this...will be watching for some additional activity to try to move in for the end of the extended...as we go into April...with longer-range signals pointing toward a seasonably cool and potentially active period for a change. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
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Cold front crosses the region this afternoon/evening, with veering winds and continued precip chances. A mix of conditions presently, but mostly MVFR in northern lower, and IFR up at CIU. Some further improvement will occur this afternoon in northern lower MI, and CIU will improve to MVFR. However, lower cigs will work back in later tonight, MVFR for most and perhaps IFR in spots. Gusty s-sse winds now will veer sw late today.
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&& .MARINE... Gale Warnings will remain up on most nearshore zones through today... have extended the warning for the Lake Michigan zones south of Grand Traverse Light through tonight with concerns for another round of gales behind a cold front passing through this afternoon. Winds will remain gusty and waves choppy so many areas will require Small Craft Advisories Wednesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>349. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-344>346. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...JPB SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...JZ MARINE...JPB

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