Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000 FXUS63 KARX 050427 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1027 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 239 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Another quiet, sunny, seasonably warm day across the region today as high pressure remained in control. Early afternoon temperatures were generally in the 40s, though areas north of I-94 were struggling to get out of the 30s being closer to the cool high. Once again the main forecast concern in the short term will be potential fog/stratus development. For tonight, model soundings show some slightly enhanced winds just above the surface and some mid-level clouds, both of which would preclude fog development. In addition, the normally aggressive HREF shows much lower probabilities for visibility reductions tonight as compared to previous nights. For Friday, some slightly cooler air aloft will be creeping in, but even so, we`ll remain seasonably warm with highs in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s again. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 The warming trend continues through the long term as upper level ridging gradually slides eastward, with 850 mb temperatures across the area getting back above 0 C by Sunday. In fact, the NAEFS mean suggests 4+ C would be possible somewhere at least near the area Sunday, which would be good for near the 90th percentile of climatology. High temperatures will in turn be on the rise, with guidance suggesting widespread 50s on Sunday and further increases into the early to middle part of next week. That said, event the high end of guidance has been too cool for the past few days, especially Wednesday when several places topped out several degrees above even the 95th percentile of guidance (a few spots were higher than the overall maximum). Therefore, have continued upward trend from guidance through Wednesday. Latest guidance would suggest Tuesday will be the warmest day quite a few places hitting 60 degrees and the higher end of the EPS suggesting mid 60s for some. Otherwise, still looking dry through at least Monday and probably Tuesday, despite some weak shortwave energy sliding through just east of the forecast area on Saturday and to the north on Sunday. The Sunday energy will also be dragging a weak surface boundary through, but still not enough to produce any precip...maybe just some increased cloud cover. Still looking likely that we see rain sometime late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, but still a fair amount of spread on exact timing. The general idea is that large scale upper level troughing will start to move into the western CONUS and some weak energy will spin up a surface low over northeast Colorado. Resultant strengthening southerly flow and warm air advection along with moisture transport pointed into the area could lead to some shower development Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, a surface boundary will be sagging southward toward the area and a stronger bit of shortwave energy will be ejecting out of the desert southwest and the aforementioned surface low will move through the forecast area Wednesday, bringing more widespread showers. Most guidance also shows several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, so will probably have a few rumbles of thunder as well. Could see some light snow on the back side as the system departs Wednesday night, though some guidance holds on to precip into Thursday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 VFR conditions will continue with little change in overall conditions. Surface ridge centered over Wisconsin with light flow and relatively dry air. Some moisture in mid levels is leading to development of some mid layer ceilings again tonight but those should move on out Friday morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS/CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Shea is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.