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388
FXUS63 KARX 131125
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
625 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smokey skies today and again on Monday from Canadian
  wildfires.

- Increased chances (40 to 60%) for widespread showers and
  storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Severe potential remains
  uncertain at this time.

- Cooler temperatures for the end of the week with highs in the
  70s and low 80s from Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Today-Monday: Mostly Dry, Smokey Skies

Northwest flow remains in place into early next week. As one
shortwave moved through Saturday, another passes through the
Upper Midwest today. Behind this wave a weak cold front will
gradually shift southeastward into central Minnesota this
afternoon. By the evening, it is expected to stall out just to
the northwest of our CWA. As a result, can`t rule out an
isolated shower or storm this evening in our northwestern
portion of the CWA, roughly from Mower County, Minnesota to
Clark County, Wisconsin. Depending on where exactly this
boundary stalls, a stray shower or storm could form Sunday night
into Monday morning along this boundary. Heading into Monday,
another boundary enters the region and shifts southward.
Depending on how strong and how far this boundary goes, will
determine where precipitation chances exist. Recent CAM runs
have the area of better theta e advection in central and
northeast Wisconsin. This would be the area where showers and
storms could form as the theta e advection isn`t as strong in
our CWA.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact the Upper
Midwest today and again on Monday. This will result in hazy
skies and some reductions in visibility. The best chances for
impacts to visibilities will be tonight through this afternoon
and again on Monday. With daytime mixing, the near surface
smoke impacts may not be as bad. Temperatures for today will be
near normal or slightly below normal due to the northwest flow,
with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Potential for Widespread Showers and Storms

Upper-level flow pattern shifts from northwesterly to
southwesterly allowing for a shortwave and resultant surface low
to move into the region. This wave will have a surface cold
front to help initiate a line of storms in central Minnesota
Tuesday afternoon. These showers and storms will shift southeast
during the day and if they hold together they could potentially
impact northwestern parts of our CWA Tuesday night. This front
will then position itself somewhere within our CWA on Wednesday.
Ahead of this front more storms will initiate in northeast Iowa
and southwestern Wisconsin. Severe potential with either of
these rounds of storms is too early to tell at this moment, but
if storms do fire, some could be on the stronger side.

Thursday-Sunday: Periodic Showers and Storms, Cooler

Uncertainty in the extended forecast as timing and location
differences of various shortwaves impact the rain potential
across the CWA. There is a slightly better signal for another
system next weekend as most ensembles have a shortwave trough
impacting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes but there are
discrepancies in strength, location, and timing of the trough
potentially impacting the region. Regardless of rain potential,
cooler weather is on the way as cooler air moves southward into
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest for the latter part of the
week. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the 70s
with some low 80s mixing in for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Main TAF concern is widespread wildfire smoke through the
morning hours. Associated MVFR-IFR visibility reductions can be
seen across the Upper Midwest at 13.12Z TAF issuance. Heaviest
smoke expected to shift east, eventually dissipating locally through
the afternoon into the evening. Reductions may remain through
Monday along and north of Interstate 94 primarily affecting
KMDZ locally.

Very low precipitation chances this evening primarily along our
northwestern periphery in southeast Minnesota and central
Wisconsin. Low precipitation chances along eastern periphery in
central Wisconsin Monday evening-night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...JAR