412
AXNT20 KNHC 032329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jun 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
24W, from 14N southward to 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the south end
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 09N13W and extends southwestward to near 06N16W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N21W, where it is broken by a
tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes at 04N27W, and extends to
05N40W to 03N51W. No significant convection is occurring near
these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends over the east-central Gulf. This trough
along with an upper level low supports numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection in the far E Gulf generally to the E of
86W, including the Florida Straits. A second surface trough
extends through the central Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds prevail over the northeastern and eastern
Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the
basin. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves
westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas
across the western and south-central Gulf through Fri between a
trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is aiding in the development of scattered
moderate convection across portions of the NW Caribbean W of 81W
and N of 15N. A ridge of high pressure is N of the Caribbean
waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds over
much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the central
Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough
seas will continue across most of the Caribbean into late week,
then diminish slightly at the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends over the NW waters off northern Florida,
and a cold front extends just north of the Florida border along
31N. These features as well as an upper level low support numerous
moderate convection across the waters S of 30N and W of 72W. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical and subtropical
waters. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across
areas S of 20N and W of 35W, as well as N of 20N between the W
coast of Africa and 50W. NE winds are locally strong in between
the Canary Islands and off the coast of Morocco. Moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere across the
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move SE of
Bermuda tonight, then drift E across the NE waters through late
this week. A surface trough along the SE U.S. coast will bring
showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida over the next couple of
days. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate. A tight pressure
gradient will lead to fresh to strong winds pulsing nightly
offshore Hispaniola through Fri.

$$
ADAMS