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000
AXNT20 KNHC 172324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
These gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0300 UTC
tonight from 11N-12.5N between 73W-76W, with seas reaching 11 ft.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 10N14W and
extends to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to the coast
of South America near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
from south of 00N and west of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has emerged just off the Texas coast extending from a
1008 mb low near 30N94W to 26N97W, then across northeastern
Mexico. Areas of low stratus and fog are within about 60 nm to
the southeast of the front. Fresh northerly winds are prevailing north
of the front. The remainder of the basin is under moderate to
fresh southeast to south flow as a high pressure over the western
Atlantic extends over the Gulf waters.

The cold front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through
Monday, lift north toward the northern Gulf states Tuesday,
before moving off the Texas coast again Wednesday and stalling
over the NW Gulf through late week. Expect fresh to strong
easterly winds north of the front over the north and central Gulf
on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
fresh to strong southeast winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the remainder
of the basin. Other than some quick moving-trade wind showers, no
significant convection is noted across the basin as dry air in
the mid-to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high
pressure builds north of the area. Strong to near-gale force
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean tonight
through the next several nights. Fresh to strong easterly winds
will prevail across the Caribbean waters west of 85W, including
the Gulf of Honduras, through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb
surface high centered near 32N37W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to
fresh winds over the central and Eastern Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Monday,
then stall over the waters north of 27N Tuesday. The western part
of the front will lift north by late Tue, while the eastern part
is forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly return flow
will prevail again by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA