Tropical Weather Discussion
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530 AXNT20 KNHC 122152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Heavy Rainfall Over Florida: A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf of America. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated from near 24W to 27N, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, reaching from 04N to 18N. Scattered to numerous showers are within about 180 nm either side of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward, moving westward around 20 kt in the past several hours. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 32W and 45W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from near SW Haiti southward to north-central Colombia, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis over water. Another tropical wave extends from the NW Caribbean near 84W southward to across far eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and central Costa Rica, moving westward around 10 kt. This wave is helping to enhance convection over nearby area of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near El Mamghar, then curves southwestward through two 1014 mb lows near 12N22W and 11N40W to 07N45W. The ITCZ continues from 07N45W to 06N48W to 08.5N55.5W. Any nearby convection is described in the tropical wave section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough analyzed in the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N to 28N between 85W and 89W. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high at the northeastern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds prevail for the rest of the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of 91W, and 2 to 3 ft across the remainder. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf, accompanied by active weather. At the same time, a weak high pressure area located over the eastern Gulf will move toward the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1024 mb Bermuda High sustains a trade-wind regime for the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas at 6 to 9 ft are present in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail from 11N to 20N in the western Caribbean. Mainly moderate winds and 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Some widely scattered showers are noted in the eastern and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh E winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras through the middle of the week, pulsing to locally strong Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail NW portions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds are causing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection off northeastern Florida. An upper- level low is producing scattered moderate convection east of the Bahamas from 22N to 30N west of 62W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning of this discussion for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb at 31N37W to beyond central Florida. Gentle E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are present north 22N and west of 60W, and from 27N to 31N between 25W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades are elsewhere from 11N to 31N east of 50W, locally strong near the coast of Africa. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in primarily NE swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the area of low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the NW zones Tue through Wed. $$ Lewitsky