Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 091014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 23W south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 26W and 31W. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves westward across the eastern Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Please see the latest North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 43W south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 39W and 47W. A tropical wave axis is near the Windward Islands along 61W south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 78W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted N of 17N within 90 nm east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 11N21W to 09N28W to 11N35W to 10N54W. The ITCZ extends from 10N54W to 09N61W. Besides the convection described above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 50W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 28N85W, with a ridge axis extending across the northern waters. Overnight scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds N of 25N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N over the Bay of Campeche, where seas are 3-6 ft based on recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, seas are 3 ft or less. Recent satellite and lightning data reveal numerous strong thunderstorms over the SW Gulf, generally S of 21N and W of 94W. Gusty winds and locally rough seas are possible in and near stronger thunderstorms. High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to moderate winds across much of the area through the middle of next week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large area of fresh to strong trades persists across the central Caribbean, in the wake of a tropical wave that is analyzed near 78W this morning. Overnight scatterometer data showed near gale- force winds near the coast of Colombia. Available altimeter data indicates seas of 8 ft or greater have spread across the waters between Hispaniola and Colombia. Seas likely peak around 12-13 ft just off the coast of Barranquilla. Elsewhere, fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras region. Isolated thunderstorms are seen in recent satellite and lightning data over the eastern Caribbean offshore waters, as well as over the SW Caribbean to the north of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Near gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela early this morning and again tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will continue for the next several days. Winds and seas may increase over the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the middle of next week as a tropical wave crosses the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A relatively weak pressure pattern prevails across the subtropical Atlantic waters this morning. Weak low pressure continues to meander well offshore of Florida and the NW Bahamas near 29N73W, with isolated showers and thunderstorms noted in the vicinity of its surface trough. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N61W, and a series of weak surface troughs are located to the east of this high between 40W and 60W. No significant convection is occurring with any of these features. Moderate trades prevail across much of the central Atlantic waters S of 20N, where seas are generally 4-7 ft. Farther east, strong northerly winds are occurring off the coast of Western Sahara and Mauritania, with seas of 7-9 ft. Weak low pressure centered near 29N73W will remain nearly stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas through Mon, then dissipate by Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the middle of next week as a tropical wave crosses the region. $$ B Reinhart

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