074
AXNT20 KNHC 072346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave over
the Bay of Campeche along 93W, south of 24N, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate
convection is from 18N to 20N between 93W and 96W, including
inland over Mexico. The system is forecast to drift slowly
northward for a couple of days while it interacts with a frontal
boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system
moves generally northward near or along the Mexican and Texas Gulf
coastline. This wave has a MEDIUM chance of tropical formation in
the next 48 hours, and a HIGH chance in the next 7 days. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1800 UTC, a stationary front
extends from 29N83W near Cedar Key, FL, to 1004 mb low pressure
centered in the NW Gulf near 27N94W. A recently formed stationary
front extends south and west from the low to the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 25N to 29N between 87W and 94W. Isolated
convection is occurring from 20N to 25N between 94W and 98W. N to
NE winds of 20-30 kt, with frequent gusts to 40 kt are occurring.
A reinforcing cold front has moved off the Texas Gulf Coast,
increasing the area of high winds across the western Gulf and
building seas to 9-15 ft. Sustained gale force winds are forecast
to begin offshore Veracruz, Mexico late tonight and continue
through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build to 10-16 ft
across these areas through early next week while the frontal
system lingers in the Gulf waters. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is nearly stationary along
42W, from 19N southward. 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave
axis near 12N42W. Convection is described in the monsoon
trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic is along 63W, from 21N
southward to eastern Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the vicinity of the
Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic just south of Dakar,
Senegal, near 14N17W and continues through aforementioned low
pressure near 12N42W to 11N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N to 15N between 23W and 29W, and from 10N to 15N between
34W and 46W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
TROPICAL WAVE in the Bay of Campeche and an ongoing GALE WARNING.

East of 90W, away from the influence of the GALE WARNING and
TROPICAL WAVE, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2-5 ft seas
are noted.

For the forecast, aside from the waters impacted by all of the
SPECIAL FEATURES, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a
TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of
Panama north to 11N between 78W and 83W. A weak subtropical ridge
allows for mainly gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with
the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to
affect the SW basin this evening. A tropical wave moving across
the Lesser Antilles will reach Hispaniola by Sun evening and then
continue to move across the central and western Caribbean through
mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the
south-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally
strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will
occur elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from an intensifying low pressure in
the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered showers in
this region. The remainder of the Atlantic is characterized by a
weak subtropical ridge, which allows for gentle to moderate
trades and 4-6 ft seas across the basin. Trades may reach locally
fresh speeds north of the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers will continue across
the northern and central Florida offshore waters through this
evening in association with a stationary front across northern
Florida. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary with gale
conditions N of 31N. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic
waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N
and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are
forecast through tonight. A cold front should emerge off of the
SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue
with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the
front is forecast to stall near 30N/31N through the middle of the
week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure over the central
tropical Atlantic could see gradual development while the system
meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through Monday and
then moves generally westward at about 10 mph through the rest of
next week. There is a LOW chance of development in the next 48
hours, and a MEDIUM chance of development in the next 7 days.

$$
ADAMS