Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 211011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 610 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 01N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 60 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 18W and 20W. Similar convection is also seen from 1.5N to 3N between 24W and 32W, and near the western end on the ITCZ from 3S to 1N between 36W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb located near 28N92W dominates the Gulf region. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the eastern Gulf where the most recent scatterometer pass indicates the presence of fresh W to NW winds, particularly N of 26N E of 87W. Light to gentle winds are seen near the high pressure while moderate to locally fresh return flow is observed W of 95W. The high pressure will remain across the Gulf waters through midweek before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW Gulf on Thu. A surface trough will develop near the NW Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours and drift westward across the SW Gulf where it will eventually dissipate during the morning hours. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will accompany this trough each night into the early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. Mainly low clouds with some shower activity are associated with the frontal boundary, forecast to dissipate today. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds flow are noted elsewhere across the basin. Mainly moderate northerly winds follows the front. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted per scatterometer data over the eastern and the south- central Caribbean, and also across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and the Tropical North Atlantic, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Trades will slowly diminish through Wednesday night, then increasing back slightly towards the end of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N72W, then continues SW across the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A band of showers with scattered showers and thunderstorms is related to the front. Part of this convective activity is currently affecting the central and SE Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front, and runs from 30N77W to near 25N80W. Some cloudiness with isolated showers is noted near the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are ahead of the front, forecast to reach from near 31N70W to the SE Bahamas today where it will stall and gradually dissipate. The remnants of the front will linger along 70W through much of the week. Farther east, another cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N36W and stretches southwest to near 22N41W where it begins to dissipate along 21N45W to 21N50W to 22N58W. This front is associated with a 1017 mb low pressure system that has just moved into the forecast area, and now is located near 30N42W. This system is generating scattered showers and isolated and thunderstorms. In addition, this low is producing gale force winds just N of the forecast region, and fresh to strong northerly winds over the forecast waters N of 27N between 42W and 48W based on recent scatterometer data. An altimeter pass indicates sea heights of up to 14 ft near the low center. The low pressure is forecast to meander near 26N50W over the next 48-72 hours. The associated cold front will dissipate over the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the north will keep an area of fresh to strong winds roughly N of 26N between 40W and 60W today and Mon. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. For additional information please visit $$ GR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.