Tropical Weather Discussion
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434 AXNT20 KNHC 240554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1013 mb low is located west of Miami, Florida near 26.1N80.9W at 24/0300 UTC. A surface trough extends from 29N80W to 24N82W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted across the western Atlantic and the eastern Gulf from 23N-27N between 79W- 82W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring over and near the Bahamas from 22N-30N between 74W-79W. This system has changed little in organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend. The low is forecast to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida through tonight and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance of development over the next 48 hours. Recent satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure, along with a tropical wave, located about 1100 miles east- southeast of the Windward Islands has become better defined. However, thunderstorm activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph. This system has a medium chance of development over the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W S of 21N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W S of 15N, moving W at 10 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is indicated by the recent ASCAT data near 10N45W. Scattered moderate convection is east of this wave from 09N-12N between 45W-48W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W S of 22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan Dust is limiting convection along this wave, and no significant activity is noted at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted near Cuba and Jamaica from 18N-21N between 77W-80W. There are also some showers right along the wave axis occurring in Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N26W to 08N51W. The ITCZ extends from 07N55W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 08N-12N between 23W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level low continues to linger over the western Gulf of Mexico near 28N93W with surface ridging across the eastern and central Gulf. A surface trough is near the mid-level low from 25N96W to 30N93W. Scattered showers are observed across the western Gulf from 23N-28N between 90W-97W. The low mentioned in the Special Features section is causing showers and isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf--see above for more details. The latest scatterometer data depicts light anti-cyclonic wind over most of the basin with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in the western basin. A surface trough over the NW Gulf will weaken tonight. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh south- southeast winds will continue across the waters west of 90W through the period, while mainly light to gentle winds continue east of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous strong convection is currently moving across the Windward Passage from 18N-21N between 73W-75W. Quick moving showers are seen moving across the Lesser Antilles along with the eastern portions of the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, relatively dry air is inhibiting convection. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds north of NW Venezuela and N Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades are observed across the rest of the basin. Fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean will increase in areal coverage over the weekend and into early next week. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night Monday through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for more information on the low over South Florida. Scattered moderate convection is seen across the central Atlantic as a mid-level disturbance moves eastward over the area. This convection is noted from 26N-31N between 53W-63W. Surface ridging covers the rest of the basin from a 1025 mb near 33N52W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeast winds across the W Atlantic. An area of low pressure near S Florida will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 72W the next few days. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue across the area. $$ AKR

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