Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 141912 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 14 2021 Updated for Tropical Wave Along 14W in the E Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Two is located near 35.0N 73.7W, or 90 nm E of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, as of 1500 UTC. Sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the central pressure is 1006 mb. Currently, the depression is moving NE at about 18 kt. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. A large mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Please refer to the latest products issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. For marine information, please refer to products issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at www.ocean.weather.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 14W just off the coast of Africa from 17N southward, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between the coast of Africa and 20W. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W and from 20N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No convection is noted near the wave axis at this time. The axis of a tropical wave approaching the Leeward Islands is near 61W from 16N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the wave axis west to 67W in the eastern Caribbean. The axis of a tropical wave is along 84W from 17N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean and Central America south of 17N between 80W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near Guinea- Bissau to 11N16W to 08N30W to 06N41W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N41W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 04N to 12N between 20W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad low pressure area of 1009 mb is centered near 19N95W over the Bay of Campeche, accompanied by a surface trough extending from 23N97W through the low to 19N91W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche south of 22N. A surface trough extends from the northern Florida Peninsula near 30N83W across the northern Gulf to 29N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of this trough across the eastern Gulf. As of 1700 UTC, satellite data indicates the outflow boundary has dissipated. A ridge of high pressure extends from the SW N Atlantic across Cuba to the across the central Gulf to the central Texas coast. Light to gentle W winds are noted north of 25N, with light to gentle NE south of 25N in the western Gulf, and light to gentle SE winds south of 25N in the E Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or less across the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of Mexico into mid-week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has a potential to slowly develop during the next few days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system begins to move slowly northward. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh to winds in the S central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south central Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. The eastern Pacific extension of the monsoon trough stretches across central Costa Rica to the SW Caribbean along 10N to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between the coast of Colombia and 78W. For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave that entered the E Caribbean this morning will cross the central Caribbean mid-week, then the western Caribbean at the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Two. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend across the Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula. Ridging dominates the basin, anchored by the Azores High north of the area. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted south of 22N and west of 40W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds noted elsewhere west of 35W. A tight pressure gradient west of the African coast south of the Canary Islands supports strong NE winds from 16N to 28N east of 25W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the Atlantic waters, except 7 to 10 ft seas in the area of fresh to strong winds. A large area of Saharan dust covers the tropical Atlantic westward to eastern Caribbean. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and Sahara Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature. For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Two will move northeast away from the area and the U.S. early this week. A ridge of high pressure along 28N will sink southward and weaken today. Winds will be fresh to locally strong north of 28N through the early part of the week as pair of cold fronts move by north of the area. $$ Mahoney

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