Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 172324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 624 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean. These gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0300 UTC tonight from 11N-12.5N between 73W-76W, with seas reaching 11 ft. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 10N14W and extends to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to the coast of South America near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from south of 00N and west of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has emerged just off the Texas coast extending from a 1008 mb low near 30N94W to 26N97W, then across northeastern Mexico. Areas of low stratus and fog are within about 60 nm to the southeast of the front. Fresh northerly winds are prevailing north of the front. The remainder of the basin is under moderate to fresh southeast to south flow as a high pressure over the western Atlantic extends over the Gulf waters. The cold front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Monday, lift north toward the northern Gulf states Tuesday, before moving off the Texas coast again Wednesday and stalling over the NW Gulf through late week. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds north of the front over the north and central Gulf on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central Caribbean waters near Colombia. Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated fresh to strong southeast winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the remainder of the basin. Other than some quick moving-trade wind showers, no significant convection is noted across the basin as dry air in the mid-to-upper levels continues to dominate the region. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area. Strong to near-gale force winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean tonight through the next several nights. Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail across the Caribbean waters west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb surface high centered near 32N37W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern Atlantic. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Monday, then stall over the waters north of 27N Tuesday. The western part of the front will lift north by late Tue, while the eastern part is forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly return flow will prevail again by mid week. For additional information please visit $$ ERA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.