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000 AXNT20 KNHC 041611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds may still be reaching gale force ahead of a cold front extending from 32N63W, which is just east of Bermuda, to central Cuba near 23N80W. The gales are confined to an area within 90 nm east of the front from 29N to 31N. There is a large cluster of thunderstorms active in this area currently, and even if sustained winds are only near-gale force, gusts to gale force are probably accompanying the thunderstorms. The main upper dynamics associated with the front are lifting northward, and the winds are expected to diminish below gale force through the late morning and early afternoon. Seas are likely 12 to 14 ft near the area of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N- 05N between 10W-20W, with an area of moderate convection noted from 00N-03N between 20W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1022 mb high pressure is centered over Louisiana, supporting moderate northerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas over the eastern Gulf, and gentle NE to E winds across the western Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas, except for lingering 2 to 4 ft off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The high pressure is building across the northern Gulf in the wake of a frontal boundary that move across the basin yesterday and last night. Part of that front is stalling across the Yucatan Channel currently. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the basin into Fri. A low pressure system is expected develop in the western Gulf early Fri, then deepen and move rapidly eastward across the Gulf through Sat. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sun through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is moving slowly across Cuba toward the far northwest Caribbean. The western part of this front is stalling across the Yucatan Channel. Light breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted across the northwest Caribbean ahead of the front. Ridging north of area behind the front is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the remainder of the basin, with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for strong winds and seas to 8 ft off Colombia. A dry pattern persists across the Caribbean, although a subtle, low-level trough is moving across the Windward Islands accompanied by scattered showers. No significant shower activity is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front over Cuba will move into the northwest Caribbean this afternoon and stall, then lift north of the area Fri. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun, stall from the Windward Passage to Belize by Sun night, then dissipate Mon. Winds will become fresh to strong across the Caribbean on Sun as the pressure gradient in the wake of the next cold front significantly tightens due to building high pressure north of the area. Seas will also build significantly across those portions of the basin with the increasing winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Attention remains focused on the deepening low pressure located near Bermuda. See the Special Features Section above for details on the ongoing Gale Warning associated with this low. A cold front reaches from 32N63W, which is just east of Bermuda, to central Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered thunderstorms are active within 90 nm east of the front, north of 27N. Aside from the area of gales listed in the Special Features section, fresh to strong SW winds are noted east of the front to 55W, north of 26N. Seas are 12 to 14 ft near the gale force winds, and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere north of 26N between 60W-75W. A broader area of NW swell with seas in excess of 8 ft cover the remainder of the area north of 21N between 35W-55W. Farther east, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N36W. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates this pattern is supporting a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds south of 20N, with 8 to 9 ft seas in a mix of shorter period trade wind related E swell and longer period NW swell. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the cold front from 32N63W across the central Bahamas to northern Cuba will weaken and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba Fri. Strong SW winds to near- gale force will proceed the front over the waters north of 29N today. Looking ahead, a developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night and Sun, possibly accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds, and dragging a cold front across the region Sun night and Mon. $$ Christensen

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