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000
AXNT20 KNHC 092334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 02N-06N between 15W-20W. Scattered showers are within 180
nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb high is centered just south of W Cuba near 22N82W. 5-
15 kt return flow is over the western Gulf of Mexico, while SW
to W winds of 10-15 kt prevail east of 90W.  A cold front will
reach the northern Gulf of Mexico on tonight, then stall and
weaken across the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night.
Southerly winds will increase across the basin during this
weekend. Another cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday. The cold front will extend from the Florida
Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Monday. Patchy zones
of smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce
the visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in the Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N76W. Scattered
showers are over N Colombia, E Panama, and the SW Caribbean. 10-
20 kt trade winds prevail over the Caribbean, with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia, and weakest winds near the
surface high over W Cuba.

Modest high pressure over the central Atlantic and extends W-SW
to the southern Bahamas. This pattern will support nightly
pulses of strong ENE winds near the coast of Colombia through
the end of the week. Fresh winds will pulse over the Gulf of
Honduras tonight, then pulse strong each night through the
weekend. Moderate long-period northerly swell will affect the
waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Sun.

Moist southerly flow is expected to increase gradually, across
parts of Central America and Colombia. Large-scale atmospheric
conditions are forecast to become favorable for enhanced
convective precipitation, from Thursday through the middle of
the next week. These ingredients appear to be favorable in order
to be possible to promote locally heavy rainfall in parts of
southern Costa Rica, Panama, western Colombia and northwestern
Ecuador, during this time period. Western Colombia may receive 1-
2 inches of rain per day, with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches
per day, for the next 3 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 29N
between 65W-72W due to a cold front N of the area along 33N.
A 1019 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 25N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the E Atlantic N of 28N
between 31W-36W due to an upper level low. A 1023 mb high is
centered over the E Atlantic near 38N27W.

Strong SW winds are expected over the W Atlantic through
tonight, ahead of a frontal system approaching the northern Gulf
of Mexico. This cold front will move across the region Fri
through Sat night. Southerly winds will increase east of Florida
Sun through Mon as a developing low pressure system moves off
the eastern U.S.

$$
Stripling