395
AXNT20 KNHC 100525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 15N17W to 06N24W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N24W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ between 33W-47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted across the basin ahead of an approaching cold
front currently over Texas. Fresh to strong winds are pulsing
north of the Yucatan. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf with
4 to 6 ft in the central and western Gulf.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridging will begin to
shift southward tonight in response to a cold front that will be
approaching the far NW Gulf tonight into early on Fri. Ahead of
the front, moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the area,
except for gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over
the eastern Gulf. The cold front will move southeastward across
the basin, reaching from near southeastern Louisiana to South
Texas by Fri afternoon, from near Fort Myers, Florida to the NE
Mexico and South Texas border by early Sat, then stall from the
Straits of Florida to South Texas on Sun, then gradually weaken
with its remnants lifting back north as a warm front through Tue.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds will follow the front into Sat
evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico
continues across most of the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is centered NE of the Caribbean. This is
giving way to scattered showers across the islands of Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands, N of 16N and E of 72W.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is off the coasts of
Colombia and Panama along the monsoon trough, S of 12N.

Fresh to strong winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras with
seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of
the NW basin with 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted in the SE basin off the NE Venezuela coast. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the Caribbean. Seas range
3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will slowly shift
eastward through the weekend. The associated gradient will support
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and southeastern
Caribbean through the weekend. Winds may increase some early next
week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong east winds will continue to pulse
at night across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Looking ahead,
expect fresh to strong southeast winds over the northwestern and
south-central Caribbean off Colombia early next week, between the
high pressure over the western Atlantic and lowering pressure
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and over Colombia. These
winds may pulse to near-gale over the Gulf of Honduras by Tue
night. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western, scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving
off the NE Florida coast N of 29N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
over waters N of 26N and W of 60W. Surface ridging dominates the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high pressure near
29N61W. Light to gentle winds are noted under the influence of
the high from 22N to 31N between 45W and 75W.

An upper level trough extends over the central Atlantic along 58W.
A pair of surface troughs are analyzed along 48W and 58W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted east of the surface troughs N of 18N
between 37W-53W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are noted E of
55W to the coast of Africa. Seas range 5 to 7 ft across this
area.

For the forecast, the ridge pressure will shift slowly eastward
through Sat, ahead of a cold front that will approach from the
northwest. Expect fresh to strong south to southwest winds ahead
of the front tonight through late Fri between the northern Bahamas
and Bermuda. The front is expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast Fri night, then weaken as it moves east reaching
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by late Sat night. Winds
and seas will diminish into Mon as the dissipating front continues
to drift east of the area, and high pressure builds between the
Carolinas and Bermuda in the wake of front. Looking ahead,
southeast winds will increase and seas will build late Mon through
Tue night off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas, as the
high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next weak front that is
expected to move across the southeastern United States.

$$
ERA