Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS63 KKRF 221410
ESGBBL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
512 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BIG BLUE R AT SURPRISE NE NO.2
SRPN1               7.0  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LINCOLN CR AT SEWARD NE 3WNW
SWDN1              15.0  17.0  20.0    <5    8   <5    6   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE R AT SEWARD NE
SWRN1              18.0  22.0  27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:W FK BIG BLUE R AT DORCHESTER NE 6NW
DRGN1              15.0  22.0  24.4    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE R AT CRETE NE 2S
CRTN1              21.0  25.0  31.0    <5   13   <5    6   <5   <5
:TURKEY CR AT WILBER NE 3W
WLBN1              12.5  16.0  21.0    <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TURKEY CR AT DEWITT NE 2SE
DEWN1              23.5  25.0  27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE R AT BEATRICE NE
BEAN1              18.0  26.0  32.0    <5   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER AT BARNESTON NE
BARN1              20.0  27.0  33.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE R AT MARYSVILLE KS
MRYK1              35.0  38.2  43.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT DEWEESE NE 4SE
DWEN1              10.0  16.0  17.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT FAIRBURY NE
FRBN1              18.5  20.0  23.0    <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT HOLLENBERG KS
HBGK1              19.0  19.4  45.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILL CR AT WASHINGTON KS 1ESE
WSHK1              18.0  19.0  35.0    <5    7   <5    6   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT BARNES KS 4NE
BANK1              16.0  23.0  39.0    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE R AT BLUE RAPIDS KS
BLRK1              26.0  52.0  68.0     8   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLACK VERMILLION R AT FRANKFORT KS
FKFK1              19.0  27.5  40.5     7   17   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211712/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:BIG BLUE R
SRPN1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.6/    2.2/    2.6/    3.0

:LINCOLN CR
SWDN1       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.3/    6.7/    8.3/   10.4

:BIG BLUE R
SWRN1       1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    2.6/    3.4/    5.7

:W FK BIG BLUE R
DRGN1       2.2/    2.2/    2.3/    2.4/    4.4/    7.1/    8.3

:BIG BLUE R
CRTN1       7.8/    7.8/    7.8/    8.1/   10.2/   13.8/   16.9

:TURKEY CR
WLBN1       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.1/    4.7/    8.0/    8.4
DEWN1      10.1/   10.1/   10.1/   10.1/   12.3/   14.1/   15.1

:BIG BLUE R
BEAN1       3.2/    3.2/    3.3/    3.5/    5.0/    7.6/   10.2

:BIG BLUE RIVER
BARN1       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    4.0/    5.4/    8.7/   12.5

:BIG BLUE R
MRYK1      13.0/   13.0/   13.0/   13.6/   16.0/   19.7/   23.0

:LITTLE BLUE R
DWEN1       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    3.7/    5.2/    6.7
FRBN1       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.6/    8.8/   10.9/   14.7
HBGK1       1.3/    1.4/    1.5/    2.2/    3.9/    6.6/   10.3

:MILL CR
WSHK1       1.6/    1.7/    1.8/    2.4/    4.6/   12.8/   15.0

:LITTLE BLUE R
BANK1       3.9/    4.0/    4.1/    5.4/    6.5/   11.0/   14.2

:BIG BLUE R
BLRK1      14.3/   14.3/   14.4/   16.5/   18.9/   24.4/   29.7

:BLACK VERMILLION R
FKFK1       2.8/    2.8/    2.9/    3.2/    9.2/   16.6/   22.6
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211712/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:BIG BLUE R
SRPN1       1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3

:LINCOLN CR
SWDN1       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1

:BIG BLUE R
SWRN1       1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3

:W FK BIG BLUE R
DRGN1       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2

:BIG BLUE R
CRTN1       7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6

:TURKEY CR
WLBN1       1.6/    1.4/    0.7/    0.7/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6
DEWN1      10.0/   10.0/   10.0/   10.0/   10.0/   10.0/   10.0

:BIG BLUE R
BEAN1       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:BIG BLUE RIVER
BARN1       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1

:BIG BLUE R
MRYK1      12.9/   12.9/   12.7/   12.6/   12.6/   12.6/   12.6

:LITTLE BLUE R
DWEN1       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0
FRBN1       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0
HBGK1       1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1

:MILL CR
WSHK1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4

:LITTLE BLUE R
BANK1       3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5

:BIG BLUE R
BLRK1      13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   13.9

:BLACK VERMILLION R
FKFK1       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$