Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 031800 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 100 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will bring widespread rain showers to the area today as well as strong gusty winds. A cold front will bring cooler air and kicking off lake effect snow showers this evening. Yet another system will bring a chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday, with more unsettled weather for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1230 AM Update... The cold front has moved into the region as well as the showers along it. This is a quick moving system and will be through within the next few hours. Some peak gusts have reached 40 kts in western NY and PA. A wind advisory continues for portions of the Finger Lakes region. This afternoon and evening will remain gusty, but winds do become weaker into the overnight hours. 930 AM Update... Rain showers are now east of I-81 and continue to move out of the region with the warm front. Some areas of light showers are present behind the main band. Otherwise, dry conditions will be present until the cold front moves through later today. Skies are overcast though there is one thin band of clearing moving through which could give some areas a brief peek of the sun. For this update, PoPs were touched up based on latest radar and CAMs guidance, which is handling the warm front and dry conditions following it fairly well. The HRRR and NBM was blended in with the previous forecast which did reduce PoPs behind the front even more. The rest of the forecast was doing fairly well and needed little change. 420 AM Update... A warm front will be crossing the region this morning with light rain showers pushing across the area from southwest to northeast. As of 3 am this morning, very dry remained in the low levels ahead of the surface warm front, with dew point depressions greater than 15 degrees in some locations. The dry air has made it tough for any rainfall to hit the ground this morning and even with strong returns on RADAR, mostly VIRGA is being observed with just a few sprinkles in some locations. The low levels will eventually saturate later this morning as the surface warm front pushes through and this will produce that period of light rain that will cross the area from around sunrise this morning to about 10 am. The main impacts this morning have been the strong southerly winds aloft at 50 to 60 knots. Although a stable inversion is in place, some stronger wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph have occurred with downsloping in the Finger Lakes Region and also a few stronger gusts have been able to break through across higher terrain areas as well. However, gusts will be stronger later today after the inversion is erased when the cold front comes through. A wind advisory is currently in effect to account for the winds associated with the cold front later this afternoon. The cold front will also bring a round of moderate to heavy rain showers. There is limited instability, however the CAMs are still indicating a decent convective line just ahead of the cold front, similar to the line of showers that pushed through earlier this week. This line will likely produce some brief localized stronger wind gusts, possibly as high 50 mph. After FROPA, colder air pushing in will initiate lake effect snow bands to develop this evening. It is interesting that the latest CMCReg (which usually has the best handle on lake effect) has shifted the heaviest snow a bit further south, into the NYS Thruway Corridor, but at this time it looks unfavorable for an organized band to develop. Forecast soundings are showing quite a bit directional shear, so this is what is going to make it tough for any bands to organize and persist over the same spot for an extended period of time. Thinking that any lake effect snow showers will be more transient and cellular. Also, mid- level moisture is limited, and model sounding inversion heights are around 1.5 km AGL. However, the water temperature is 45F to 46F for Lake Ontario, and when taking into the account the water temp in BUFKIT, the equilibrium layer rises to 2 km. Still not fantastic for heavy lake effect snow, but more favorable than what the non-adjusted forecast soundings suggest. Long story short...a few inches of accumulation will be possible from Lake Ontario in Northern Onondaga and Oneida County, and the messy/widespread lighter Lake Erie bands elsewhere, perhaps grazing the Twin Tiers. The lake effect snow showers will come to an end Sunday morning as ridging builds back into the area. However, temperatures will remain chilly on Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure over the region today will move eastward tonight giving way to a cold frontal boundary and low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes Tuesday. Under the high pressure system skies are expected to be mostly sunny with temperatures getting into the 40`s. However, clouds and southerly winds Monday night will be on the increase. As a result, low temperatures look to be early in the evening before rising throughout the night. Enough lift and moisture looks present for some spotty light precipitation by daybreak Tuesday. Thermal profiles and initial dry air in place suggest some of this may be in the form of a wintry mix, though any accumulations would be very light. Temperatures Monday night rise through the 30`s then push 50 Tuesday with the continued southerly winds. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Modeling lead by the GFS/GEFS has continued to trend to a stronger - PNA index for the middle and later half of the week for several consecutive runs. Despite the -NAO/EPO setup which would bring in cold air, the PNA looks to be the dominant factor holding true winter weather at bay through the long term. This is modeled with a fairly large and dominant southeastern US mid- level ridge. That would slow the approach of the cold front and potentially stall it out over our region through the middle of the week. Fortunately, model and ensemble QPF is on the lighter side and spread out over a few days keeping shower chances around. Still a large temperature spread through Thursday within the ensembles. While the forecast has been nudged a bit over the blended model guidance for now with temperatures, a large ensemble spread still remains. Generally 40`s and low 50`s for highs Wednesday and Thursday with warm overnight lows. The front is modeled to be east of the region by Friday. However, some ensemble guidance hints at another low pressure system tracking from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. A colder airmass should filter into the region knocking temperatures back down into the 20`s and 30`s. As a result, indicated a low chance for rain and snow from this with the bulk of solutions keeping precipitation south of our region. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front will quickly move through the region over the next few hours. This front brings rain showers and strong wind gusts. Some peak gusts of 40 kts were observed west of the region. Visibilities may be reduced as the rain moves through. SYR and RME will be MVFR while the other terminals are in Fuel Alt due to lower ceilings. BGM could see brief periods of IFR ceilings as well. Once the front moves through, winds will remain gusty but will become weaker throughout the overnight hours. Lake effect showers also develop behind the frontal passage bringing additional rain showers to CNY this evening. The rain transitions to snow showers. SYR and RME would most likely see restrictions from this lake effect precipitation. Brief periods of restrictions could be possible at ITH, ELM, and BGM if the bands stretch over these terminals. The lake effect comes to an end prior to sunrise, though some lingering snow showers may be possible at RME. Conditions are expected to become VFR after 06z at the NY terminals except at RME. Lingering lake clouds could keep ceilings longer than what guidance is suggesting. AVP will not be impacted by additional precipitation once the front moves through, so VFR conditions are expected by 00z. Besides the strong gusty winds for most of this period, there will be some low-level wind shear at AVP and RME for the first few hours in this TAF period with speeds around 45 kt. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible with periods of rain showers and gusty winds.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ015>018-022- 023. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...BTL/MPK

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