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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 031800
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
100 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring widespread rain showers to the area
today as well as strong gusty winds. A cold front will bring
cooler air and kicking off lake effect snow showers this evening.
Yet another system will bring a chance of rain Monday night
into Tuesday, with more unsettled weather for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1230 AM Update...

The cold front has moved into the region as well as the showers
along it. This is a quick moving system and will be through
within the next few hours. Some peak gusts have reached 40 kts
in western NY and PA. A wind advisory continues for portions of
the Finger Lakes region. This afternoon and evening will remain
gusty, but winds do become weaker into the overnight hours.

930 AM Update...

Rain showers are now east of I-81 and continue to move out of
the region with the warm front. Some areas of light showers are
present behind the main band. Otherwise, dry conditions will be
present until the cold front moves through later today. Skies
are overcast though there is one thin band of clearing moving
through which could give some areas a brief peek of the sun.

For this update, PoPs were touched up based on latest radar and
CAMs guidance, which is handling the warm front and dry
conditions following it fairly well. The HRRR and NBM was
blended in with the previous forecast which did reduce PoPs
behind the front even more. The rest of the forecast was doing
fairly well and needed little change.

420 AM Update...

A warm front will be crossing the region this morning with
light rain showers pushing across the area from southwest to
northeast. As of 3 am this morning, very dry remained in the low
levels ahead of the surface warm front, with dew point
depressions greater than 15 degrees in some locations. The dry
air has made it tough for any rainfall to hit the ground this
morning and even with strong returns on RADAR, mostly VIRGA is
being observed with just a few sprinkles in some locations. The
low levels will eventually saturate later this morning as the
surface warm front pushes through and this will produce that
period of light rain that will cross the area from around
sunrise this morning to about 10 am.

The main impacts this morning have been the strong southerly
winds aloft at 50 to 60 knots. Although a stable inversion is
in place, some stronger wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph have occurred
with downsloping in the Finger Lakes Region and also a few
stronger gusts have been able to break through across higher
terrain areas as well. However, gusts will be stronger later
today after the inversion is erased when the cold front comes
through. A wind advisory is currently in effect to account for
the winds associated with the cold front later this afternoon.

The cold front will also bring a round of moderate to heavy rain
showers. There is limited instability, however the CAMs are
still indicating a decent convective line just ahead of the cold
front, similar to the line of showers that pushed through
earlier this week. This line will likely produce some brief
localized stronger wind gusts, possibly as high 50 mph.

After FROPA, colder air pushing in will initiate lake effect
snow bands to develop this evening. It is interesting that the
latest CMCReg (which usually has the best handle on lake effect)
has shifted the heaviest snow a bit further south, into the NYS
Thruway Corridor, but at this time it looks unfavorable for an
organized band to develop. Forecast soundings are showing quite
a bit directional shear, so this is what is going to make it
tough for any bands to organize and persist over the same spot
for an extended period of time. Thinking that any lake effect
snow showers will be more transient and cellular. Also, mid-
level moisture is limited, and model sounding inversion heights
are around 1.5 km AGL. However, the water temperature is 45F to
46F for Lake Ontario, and when taking into the account the
water temp in BUFKIT, the equilibrium layer rises to 2 km. Still
not fantastic for heavy lake effect snow, but more favorable
than what the non-adjusted forecast soundings suggest. Long
story short...a few inches of accumulation will be possible from
Lake Ontario in Northern Onondaga and Oneida County, and the
messy/widespread lighter Lake Erie bands elsewhere, perhaps
grazing the Twin Tiers.

The lake effect snow showers will come to an end Sunday morning
as ridging builds back into the area. However, temperatures will
remain chilly on Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the region today will move eastward tonight
giving way to a cold frontal boundary and low pressure system moving
into the Great Lakes Tuesday. Under the high pressure system skies
are expected to be mostly sunny with temperatures getting into the
40`s. However, clouds and southerly winds Monday night will be on
the increase. As a result, low temperatures look to be early in the
evening before rising throughout the night. Enough lift and moisture
looks present for some spotty light precipitation by daybreak
Tuesday. Thermal profiles and initial dry air in place suggest
some of this may be in the form of a wintry mix, though any
accumulations would be very light. Temperatures Monday night
rise through the 30`s then push 50 Tuesday with the continued
southerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Modeling lead by the GFS/GEFS has continued to trend to a stronger -
PNA index for the middle and later half of the week for several
consecutive runs. Despite the -NAO/EPO setup which would bring
in cold air, the PNA looks to be the dominant factor holding
true winter weather at bay through the long term. This is
modeled with a fairly large and dominant southeastern US mid-
level ridge. That would slow the approach of the cold front and
potentially stall it out over our region through the middle of
the week. Fortunately, model and ensemble QPF is on the lighter
side and spread out over a few days keeping shower chances
around. Still a large temperature spread through Thursday within
the ensembles. While the forecast has been nudged a bit over
the blended model guidance for now with temperatures, a large
ensemble spread still remains. Generally 40`s and low 50`s for
highs Wednesday and Thursday with warm overnight lows.

The front is modeled to be east of the region by Friday. However,
some ensemble guidance hints at another low pressure system tracking
from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. A colder airmass
should filter into the region knocking temperatures back down
into the 20`s and 30`s. As a result, indicated a low chance for
rain and snow from this with the bulk of solutions keeping
precipitation south of our region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will quickly move through the region over the next
few hours. This front brings rain showers and strong wind gusts.
Some peak gusts of 40 kts were observed west of the region.
Visibilities may be reduced as the rain moves through. SYR and
RME will be MVFR while the other terminals are in Fuel Alt due
to lower ceilings. BGM could see brief periods of IFR ceilings
as well. Once the front moves through, winds will remain gusty
but will become weaker throughout the overnight hours. Lake
effect showers also develop behind the frontal passage bringing
additional rain showers to CNY this evening. The rain
transitions to snow showers. SYR and RME would most likely see
restrictions from this lake effect precipitation. Brief periods
of restrictions could be possible at ITH, ELM, and BGM if the
bands stretch over these terminals.

The lake effect comes to an end prior to sunrise, though some
lingering snow showers may be possible at RME. Conditions are
expected to become VFR after 06z at the NY terminals except at
RME. Lingering lake clouds could keep ceilings longer than what
guidance is suggesting. AVP will not be impacted by additional
precipitation once the front moves through, so VFR conditions
are expected by 00z.

Besides the strong gusty winds for most of this period, there
will be some low-level wind shear at AVP and RME for the first
few hours in this TAF period with speeds around 45 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible with periods
of rain showers and gusty winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ015>018-022-
     023.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/MPK