Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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710 FXUS61 KBGM 210521 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 121 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region over the weekend, bringing mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 805 PM update... Flurries have ended and clouds are beginning to dissipate in northwest flow. Decoupling will cause temperatures to drop off rapidly over the next few hours, but the models indicate lake flow will redevelop in the early morning hours, leading to an area of mainly cloudy skies downwind of the lakes. 4 PM update... Low level moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion has kept the local area under mostly cloudy/cloudy skies. This evening skies will gradually become mainly clear to partly cloudy with loss of daytime heating and low level drying. Overnight lows will range in the middle 20s to around 30. Saturday/Saturday night...Surface high pressure will gradually build east over the region during this period. Northwest flow will keep temperatures still below seasonal normals but moderation is expected on Saturday due to mostly sunny skies. Highs on Saturday will range in the middle 40s to around 50. Lows Saturday night will drop again in the middle 20s to around 30 due to clear skies and light winds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM Update... Seasonable and dry weather expected through the short term period. Weak northwest flow continues on Sunday as a surface high builds in from the west. Dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected, with light winds. High temperatures warm into the 50s. Some lower 60s are possible in the Wyoming Valley region of Northeastern Pennsylvania. Upper level ridge and surface high pressure build over the region Sunday night and Monday. Good radiational cooling setup will allow lows to dip into the upper 20s to mid-30s early Monday morning. Temperatures should recover nicely into the upper 50s to mid-60s by Monday afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Went above Superblend guidance for highs both Monday and Tuesday closer to the deterministic guidance...as surface winds turn southerly. High pressure remains in control of our weather Monday night into Tuesday morning. Clouds begin to increase from south to north during the afternoon hours on Tuesday as the next weather system slowly approaches from the Appalachians /Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures remain mild, with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s once again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 PM Update... The previously mentioned low pressure system will track up the east coast bringing clouds and rain showers starting Tuesday night. Maintained likely pops from the NY/PA border south prior to 12z Wednesday, and high chance pops further north across Central NY. Pops were raised to likely areawide on Wednesday (for rain showers) as guidance has come into better agreement on the timing of this system. Scattered rain showers may linger into Wednesday night as the low tracks into New England. Overnight lows remain mild, mainly in the 40s. Lower confidence in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Guidance is in general agreement that a broad upper level trough will remain in place over the Eastern US during this period. However, models disagree on the details during this time though. The GFS/CMC bring several additional systems quickly through the area...with periods of rain. Meanwhile, the latest 12z ECMWF brings in some shortwave, subtle ridging to our forecast area Thursday and Friday...keeping things dry. For now, used a blend of the latest guidance including the Superblend and WPC guidance. This gave a chance of rain showers for these periods. Daytime highs should be mainly in the 50s to around 60s...with overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions will remain VFR the rest of tonight and through the day Saturday. The chance for a broken MVFR deck early this morning is much less...so decided to remove mention of this in the latest forecast. High pressure keeps mostly clear skies through at least 06Z Sunday. Winds will be light and variable this morning and increase out of the northwest 7 to 11 kt with gusts 15 to 20 kt from 15Z-01Z before going light and variable Sat night. Outlook... Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. Tuesday night/Wednesday...Restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM SHORT TERM...BJT/MJM LONG TERM...MJM/MWG AVIATION...BJT/DJP

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