Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 050335 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1035 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds will push cold air across NY and PA through Friday. Light lake effect snow showers will affect the region through the weekend, before a warming trend begins on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 1035 PM update... Just some minor changes to overnight trends. Temperatures seemed to be cooling off a little faster than expected in parts of Southern Tier, but incoming cloud cover should slow down the cooling a bit, so the overnight lows have been maintained. With drier air in place, light lake effect snow showers look less likely overnight, and dropped PoPs to the slight chance range, before ramping back up again tomorrow. 235 PM update... A powerful cyclone in the upper atmosphere will remain fixed over Eastern Canada through the end of the week. This storm will pull unseasonably cold air into NY and PA, generating snow showers downwind of the lakes. Very cold air, typified by a -15C 850mb isotherm dipping into NYS, will cause temperatures to fall to between 8 and 12 degrees along the Twin Tiers tonight. Gusty northwest winds will produce near-zero apparent temperatures across the region with wind chills between -5 and -10 degrees over Northern Oneida County. Lake effect snow showers will produce a dusting to an inch of accumulation, mainly near the Finger Lakes. Despite a fair amount of sun Friday, temperatures will struggle to break out of the 20s. With model guidance exhibiting a cold bias on sunny days in recent weeks, we went a few degrees warmer than model output temperatures. Weak lake effect snow showers will continue. Another shot of polar air will move across the region Friday night. The lakes will become more active, with an inch or more of snow accumulation possible over Upstate NY. Temperatures will bottom out in the teens along the NY/PA border. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 300 PM Update Cold northwest flow persists through the weekend with an upper low situated over New England and the Canadian maritimes. Another couple of shortwaves rotating through will reinforce chances for snow showers Saturday and Saturday night, with our best chances downwind of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes courtesy of some lake enhancement. Soundings indicate a fairly deep layer in the snow growth zone, so light snow accumulations will be possible across most of central NY. However, higher totals in excess of an inch are possible across the higher terrain southeast of Lake Ontario through the southern Finger Lakes. A chance for additional lake effect snow showers lingers behind the main wave for Sunday, though drier soundings indicate that totals should be light before we dry out entirely into the evening. Expect an otherwise cold and breezy weekend with a tight pressure gradient over the region as the upper low remains situated to our northeast and high pressure slowly starts to build in from the central US. Temperatures both days will peak in the 20s, perhaps near 30F in the Wyoming valley, while morning lows drop into the teens and even single digits. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 PM Update A surface high building in will keep in dry weather for the start of next week before another shortwave grazing the area brings a chance for some light rain and snow showers mainly north of the Thruway Monday night. We quickly dry out again for Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure in control. Models start to bring in our next chance at rain late Wednesday night as the ridge shifts eastward and a deepening surface low tracks into the upper Great Lakes. Otherwise, we will see quite a warming trend into next week. Temperatures reach up into the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday before falling back into the 20s and 30s overnight. Highs will be well into the 40s across much of the area Tuesday and in the lower 50s across the river valleys, and we will be even warmer for Wednesday with some spots even making an attempt at the 60F mark. Expect lows Tuesday night to be generally in the 30s, and the 30s and 40s Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Gusty winds will remain present through the majority of the period for all terminals with gusts ranging 20 to 25 kts, with some exceeding 25 kts. Light snow showers are possible at ITH late tonight and into early Friday morning that could reduce visibilities. Ceilings will fluctuate at all NY terminals but will remain at VFR throughout the period. Some scattered lake effect snow showers could bring some occasional MVFR visibility restrictions to ITH Friday evening and then to SYR and RME Friday night, but confidence is low to include in this update. Outlook... Saturday through Sunday...Scattered lake effect snow showers may bring occasional restrictions to all terminals. Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR expected. Monday night...Scattered snow showers may bring occasional restrictions to SYR and RME. Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP/MPH NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...HLC LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...BTL

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