National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 050335
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1035 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will push cold air across NY and PA through Friday.
Light lake effect snow showers will affect the region through
the weekend, before a warming trend begins on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1035 PM update...
Just some minor changes to overnight trends. Temperatures seemed
to be cooling off a little faster than expected in parts of
Southern Tier, but incoming cloud cover should slow down the
cooling a bit, so the overnight lows have been maintained. With
drier air in place, light lake effect snow showers look less
likely overnight, and dropped PoPs to the slight chance range,
before ramping back up again tomorrow.

235 PM update...

A powerful cyclone in the upper atmosphere will remain fixed
over Eastern Canada through the end of the week. This storm will
pull unseasonably cold air into NY and PA, generating snow
showers downwind of the lakes.

Very cold air, typified by a -15C 850mb isotherm dipping into
NYS, will cause temperatures to fall to between 8 and 12 degrees
along the Twin Tiers tonight. Gusty northwest winds will produce
near-zero apparent temperatures across the region with wind
chills between -5 and -10 degrees over Northern Oneida County.
Lake effect snow showers will produce a dusting to an inch of
accumulation, mainly near the Finger Lakes.

Despite a fair amount of sun Friday, temperatures will struggle
to break out of the 20s. With model guidance exhibiting a cold
bias on sunny days in recent weeks, we went a few degrees warmer
than model output temperatures. Weak lake effect snow showers
will continue.

Another shot of polar air will move across the region Friday
night. The lakes will become more active, with an inch or more
of snow accumulation possible over Upstate NY. Temperatures will
bottom out in the teens along the NY/PA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM Update

Cold northwest flow persists through the weekend with an upper low
situated over New England and the Canadian maritimes. Another couple
of shortwaves rotating through will reinforce chances for snow
showers Saturday and Saturday night, with our best chances downwind
of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes courtesy of some lake
enhancement. Soundings indicate a fairly deep layer in the snow
growth zone, so light snow accumulations will be possible across
most of central NY. However, higher totals in excess of an inch are
possible across the higher terrain southeast of Lake Ontario through
the southern Finger Lakes. A chance for additional lake effect snow
showers lingers behind the main wave for Sunday, though drier
soundings indicate that totals should be light before we dry out
entirely into the evening.

Expect an otherwise cold and breezy weekend with a tight pressure
gradient over the region as the upper low remains situated to our
northeast and high pressure slowly starts to build in from the
central US. Temperatures both days will peak in the 20s, perhaps
near 30F in the Wyoming valley, while morning lows drop into the
teens and even single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM Update

A surface high building in will keep in dry weather for the start of
next week before another shortwave grazing the area brings a chance
for some light rain and snow showers mainly north of the Thruway
Monday night. We quickly dry out again for Tuesday and Wednesday
with high pressure in control. Models start to bring in our next
chance at rain late Wednesday night as the ridge shifts eastward and
a deepening surface low tracks into the upper Great Lakes.

Otherwise, we will see quite a warming trend into next week.
Temperatures reach up into the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday before
falling back into the 20s and 30s overnight. Highs will be well into
the 40s across much of the area Tuesday and in the lower 50s across
the river valleys, and we will be even warmer for Wednesday with some
spots even making an attempt at the 60F mark. Expect lows Tuesday
night to be generally in the 30s, and the 30s and 40s Wednesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gusty winds will remain present through the majority of the
period for all terminals with gusts ranging 20 to 25 kts, with
some exceeding 25 kts. Light snow showers are possible at ITH
late tonight and into early Friday morning that could reduce
visibilities. Ceilings will fluctuate at all NY terminals but
will remain at VFR throughout the period.

Some scattered lake effect snow showers could bring some
occasional MVFR visibility restrictions to ITH Friday evening
and then to SYR and RME Friday night, but confidence is low to
include in this update.


Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Scattered lake effect snow showers
may bring occasional restrictions to all terminals.

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday night...Scattered snow showers may bring occasional
restrictions to SYR and RME.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MPH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...BTL