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276
FXUS61 KBGM 170007
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
807 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few isolated afternoon rain showers this afternoon but most
will stay dry. Calm and quiet weather under high pressure will
be present tonight through tomorrow morning. Unsettled
conditions return Friday afternoon as another area of low
pressure moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

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730 PM Update...
Forecast remains mostly on track, made minor changes to cloud
cover based on latest satellite and observations.

245 PM Update...
High level cloud clearing earlier today has allowed the sun to
heat the surface and allow some isolated rain showers to develop
this afternoon, mostly east of I-81. Most of these showers are
not reaching the ground, but a few stronger showers are getting
some rain/drizzle to the surface. This tracks given the dewpoint
depression across much of the region is about 15-20 degrees.
These showers will continue to stream from east to west across
the area this afternoon, directed by a low pressure system off
NJ that is pushing ENE flow across the region. Showers will
dissipate later this evening when we loose the surface heating
from the sun.

High pressure will build into the region tonight. With the low
spinning off the coast, the question is how much clearing may we
get with the suppression from the high battling the moisture
and cloud influx from the low. If we can see a few hours of
clearing, fog development will be possible again in the morning.
Guidance is somewhat all over the place with cloud cover, so
confidence is not very high on fog formation late tonight into
the morning hours. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s
across much of the region. Upper 40s will be present in the
higher elevations of t he Catskills.

Friday will start off wonderfully with partly cloudy skies and
temps climbing into the low 70s by noon. A shortwave trough is
expected to move into the region during the afternoon, bringing
rain showers and a slight chance of a rumble of thunder to the
Finger Lakes and western Twin Tiers into the evening. The
timing of the showers and how far east they will migrate is
still a little up in the air as the approaching low and
associated rain will have to fight dry air in place over the
region. Steady showers should be in the area by late afternoon,
spreading SW to NE through the overnight hours as the surface
low lifts to the NNE. Showers should lighten up and become more
scattered by daybreak. Rainfall amounts are expected to be
light, with up to 0.15in expected. Highest amounts should be in
the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be warm thanks to continuous
southerly flow, remaining in the upper 50s across much of the
region. Higher elevations of the Catskills will fall into the
low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
258 PM Update...

A shortwave trough will be departing the area early Saturday
morning. A broad upper low will move from the Ohio Valley into
Virginia and the Carolinas through the weekend, while a lopsided
ridge noses into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Still, some
weak instability will lead to widely scattered/disorganized and
light showers developing Saturday afternoon, with a slight chance
again on Sunday. Similar conditions will persist into Monday. High
temperatures will slowly climb each day through the 70s, with a few
valley locales approaching 80 on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
258 PM Update...

A weak shortwave trough will approach the are with showers mostly
dissipating Tuesday night. Southerly flow will bring warm/moist
air back into the region Wednesday, ahead of a second
disturbance and associated cold front Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
There are still some timing issues to work out in the extended
part of the forecast, with ensembles suggesting shower chances
will linger past Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

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VFR conditions persist at most terminals tonight with high
pressure building in. Some clearing is expected but there is
uncertainty on whether we will get enough clearing to allow
river valley fog to develop. Guidance hints at fog developing
at ELM/BGM for a brief period. Given the lack of confidence in
this, a TEMPO period was used for IFR conditions from 8-12z.

A marine layer may sneak in to AVP late tonight bringing a
chance of MVFR restrictions. Otherwise once possible restrictions
lift VFR conditions will be expected for the remaining period
at all terminals.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...ES