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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211930
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
330 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional showers and some thunder move through this evening,
mainly across central New York. Staying warm Thursday and
Friday, with dry weather across most of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

Most of the area is seeing a brief period of sunshine, with
clouds and showers confined mainly to our northwestern zones
ahead of the approaching cold front. Under sunny skies,
temperatures have been able to quickly reach into the upper 60s
and lower 70s across much of the area. However, some spots have
been able to rise a couple degrees higher into the mid and
upper 70s, especially across the river valleys.

Otherwise, satellite and latest radar returns indicate a line
of weak convection developing out ahead of the cold front with
some weak instability, from the Finger Lakes towards western
Oneida county. Storm motion remains flow parallel,so these are
not expected to be able to push much more eastward into the
area. It won`t be until more towards 19 to 20Z, when the cold
front approaches from the northwest, that we start to see better
chances for showers and some thunder tracking across our area.
These again look most likely across the Finger Lakes and Mohawk
Valley, though some activity will be possible as far as the
Southern Tier and I-88 corridor. Shower activity largely winds
down after 23Z with the cold front weakening as it moves
eastward and any daytime instability waning.

Tonight, skies stay mostly cloudy with soundings staying moist
at lower levels. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out especially
in spots that can pick up on any rain showers. Otherwise, expect
a mild night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 50s and light
winds.

The front lifts northward again into Thursday with high pressure
centered across the mid Atlantic. This will allow most of the
area to turn partly sunny and dry, but depending on how far
north the front can track, some lingering cloud cover and even
a few spotty showers will be possible from the Finger Lakes
through the Mohawk valley region. Given fairly shallow nature
indicated by model soundings, showers should stay light.

Expect a pretty large temperature gradient from north to south.
Where clouds linger along and north of the warm front,
temperatures may only peak in the mid 60s. South of the front,
with a warmer airmass and peeks of sunshine, highs in the low to
mid 70s are expected. Another mild night is expected Thursday
night. Temperatures bottom out in the 50s, with more breaks in
the clouds across much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Dry weather with a warm southwest flow Friday. High temperatures
from the mid 70s in the Central Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
to upper 60s in the western Catskills are well above average.
A marine layer will be in NEPA and the Catskills giving them
more clouds especially in the morning.

A slow moving cold front will approach from the west Friday
night. Some showers will work into the area Friday night
especially late in CNY. Lows from the mid 40s north to mid 50s
south.

Saturday a chance of showers everywhere as the cold front pushes
southeast through the area in the morning. The best chance will
be in the morning in CNY. Not much forcing with only slowly
falling upper level heights and a flow nearly parallel to the
front. Colder air will move in so high temperatures will be much
cooler. High in the mid 50s most of CNY to mid 60s Wyoming
Valley and upper Delaware mainstem. Skies will be cloudy to
mostly cloudy.

Saturday night colder and drier air comes in from the northwest
ahead of high pressure in southeast Ontario. Skies become partly
cloudy as temperatures fall into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 pm update...
Little change. Unsettled with a chance of rain starting Sunday
night. Temperatures close to normal for late October.

420 AM Update
A nearly stationary boundary will be bisecting the area on
Sunday; this front may try to lift north slowly later in the
day. Latest guidance is trending drier for Sunday, but
increasing clouds as a mid level disturbance rides along the
aforementioned frontal boundary into our area from the Ohio
Valley. High pressure centered over Quebec will keep a
northeasterly flow of dry in the lower levels of the atmosphere
for our area. Seasonable cool with highs in the low to mid-50s
with a light northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Unsettled and wetter weather is then expected in the Monday,
Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. Several waves of low pressure
are forecast to ride northeastward along the nearly stationary
front...this will keep high chance to even low end likely PoPs
in the forecast. Eventually, toward later Tuesday or Wednesday a
deeper upper level trough will move east, bringing a cold front
through the area. This should allow the steadier rain or showers
to exit...however stronger cold air advection may kick off some
lake effect showers and clouds. Near to slightly above average
temperatures expected for this timeframe with highs in the
mid-50s to lower 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
After a brief period of VFR conditions this afternoon with much
of central NY and northeast PA experiencing sunny skies, a
weakening cold front moving through will bring in additional
restrictions into the late afternoon and evening. This will
bring in MVFR ceilings as well as a potential for some showers
to KRME, KSYR, and KITH from 20Z to 22Z, then restrictions move
back into KELM and KBGM between 22Z and 0Z. Some thunder will
also be possible at KRME, KSYR and even KITH, but with little
certainty, this would simply need to be handled with brief
amendments.

MVFR restrictions linger at KRME and KSYR into the evening
before ceilings finally lift to around 3500 to 5000 ft for the
rest of the forecast period. However, MVFR restrictions continue
across the rest of our terminals for most of the remainder of
the forecast period with a fairly moist lower level airmass. It
may not be until the early afternoon, when more breaks in the
clouds occur, that our remaining terminals can finally lift to
VFR.

As for winds, south/southwest winds at around 8 to 12 kts this
afternoon may gust up to 20 kts, but then winds shifting more to
the west fall back this evening and turn light overnight.

Outlook...

Midday Thursday through Friday...Generally VFR as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the region.

Friday night through Saturday...A cold front moves into the
region with a chance of showers and possible restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...mainly VFR.

Monday...Restrictions possible in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HLC
NEAR TERM...HLC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MJM/TAC
AVIATION...HLC/MDP