Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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932 FXUS61 KBGM 241432 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1032 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large region of dry high pressure, will keep a mostly clear sky going through Friday, with warming temperatures. Increasing moisture and an approaching frontal boundary, will result in chances for showers or thunderstorms over the weekend, especially Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1030 am update... Steady as she goes with the forecast. Little or no modifications needed at this time. Satellite imagery late this morning shows clear skies area-wide, within a very dry regime. No changes anticipated this afternoon, as a weak back-door front over far northern NY and New England retreats eastward and further undergoes frontolysis. Observed 925-850 mb temperatures late this morning, along with the expectation of a little warm air advection this afternoon, support highs in the mid 70s-lower 80s range. Enjoy! Previous discussion... 315 AM Update... Quite a splendid dry and warm couple of late May days to start the forecast off, in the near term. Very broad and dry high pressure is now centered over the Ohio Valley yet its reach sprawls out over a huge area including our region. Despite clear sky and recent rains, air mass is still advecting in with dry mixing just off the surface and thus we are not getting the typical valley fog. It has taken until now for Sidney NY to even reach 5 mile visibility. Patches of very shallow valley fog may occur right around dawn in our most sheltered/deep cut valleys but vast majority will just have a clear crisp sunrise early this morning. After starting off at mid 40s-mid 50s, wall-to-wall sunshine will rapidly warm the dry air to mid 70s-near 80 for highs today. As is typical for this type of set up with abundant dry air above the boundary layer, dewpoints will likely crash below guidance values into mid 30s-mid 40s, which will produce relative humidity values down to only 25-35 percent range this afternoon. Not even the smallest hint of mugginess today. For tonight, the center of high pressure will shift to our south yet of course it will still dominate with clear sky. There might be just a little more success at some patchy fog in the valleys; overall not a solid fog night however. Lows will be mainly 50s. On Friday, with the high drifting off the Midatlantic Coast, we get into west-southwesterly warm air advection return flow that will boost temperatures into widespread 80s for all except the very highest elevations. Some spots could even touch upper 80s. Dewpoints will be just a tad higher, mostly in the upper 40s- lower 50s; still far from being humid. With deeper mixing to 800mb or so, daytime gusts will be frequently 15-20 mph. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM Update... High pressure will continue to move out to sea and give way to an approaching cold front by Saturday night. Warmth and moisture will be transported ahead of the front with enough instability Saturday afternoon for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to form with the peak heating hours. Temperatures should rise well into the 80`s after a muggier start around 60. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 315 AM Update... Sunday through Monday night: The cold frontal boundary will likely become a backdoor front and move east to west across parts of the region on Sunday then push through the entire region by Monday night. With the front drawing closer, it will serve as a trigger for more in the way of widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. If enough instability is realized, a threat for strong to severe storms would be present. However, with modeling showing convection earlier in the day now that window looks a bit narrower compared to the past few model cycles. Scattered showers and storms will likely linger into the holiday with the front still close by. Temperatures should start a slow cooling trend with highs falling back into the 70`s and clouds keeping lows up in the 60`s. The ensemble spread is actually increasing with the temperature forecast in this timeframe so these numbers could adjust a bit as we draw closer to the end of the holiday weekend. Tuesday through Wednesday: High pressure builds southeast into the region resulting in a likely dry period. Tropical moisture may start to increase Wednesday but given uncertainty and model differences held off any thunderstorm chances till after Wednesday at this time. Highs look to be around 80 with lows in the 50`s. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z Update... VFR as high pressure takes over the region. Despite clear sky and recent rains, valley fog formation did not manage to occur at the terminals early this morning, as air mass is very dry and there is mixing still going on immediately above the surface. After another day of drying out with sunny sky today, some continued winds just above the surface tonight again lends little confidence for any valley fog formation early Friday morning, thus it is not included in TAFs. Winds will be generally out of the northwest 4-8 knots today, then very light southwest to southeast or variable tonight. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...VFR. Saturday through Monday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions; highest chances on Sunday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MDP

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