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099
FXUS61 KBGM 071838
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
238 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Sunny and dry weather expected this afternoon but a warm front
moving in tonight brings the threat for showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Tomorrow, a cold front moves
through with the threat for a few isolated strong storms in the
late morning and early afternoon. Cooler and showery weather is
expected late week into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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230 PM update...

Sunny skies with a pocket of dry air moving through aloft
evident in water vapor imagery has caused dew points to fall
with day time mixing. Winds are fairly light but relative
humidities have fallen to around 30 percent for much of the
region. Deeper moisture is trying to make its way in from
central PA so NEPA is fairing a bit better with RH this
afternoon. Tonight, a warm front lifts in with clouds increasing
as well as a threat for some rain showers and elevated
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings do get up near 1000 J/kg of
elevated CAPE and with 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, there is a
small threat for some hail though hail size overnight should
stay sub severe with CAPE being skinny.

Tomorrow is looking a bit more interesting as there is a weak
elevated mixed layer moving through in the morning to early
afternoon where mid level lapse rates get up over 7 C/km with
0-6 km shear near 70 knots associated with a jet streak moving
overhead. Some of the CAMs do get to have over 1000 J/km of
surface based CAPE in the afternoon with little capping. Despite
there being good lapse rates and weakly capped surface based
CAPE is the lack of a trigger at the time we have the
ingredients in place for severe storms. There is a 500 mb
vorticity wave moving through northern NY so right now the NY
thruway corridor has the best chance at seeing a stronger storm
in the afternoon with large hail and wind being the main threat
if a storm can get going. Decided to keep at least a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the grids for tomorrow afternoon as
any outflow from storms farther away could trigger storms to
develop later in the day despite no mid level triggers.

Wednesday night is looking cooler with a cold front dropping
south and skies clearing and dry air advecting in at lower
levels of the atmosphere. With stronger boundary layer winds,
temperatures were not lowered below model guidance yet but if
there can be some decoupling, good radiational cooling will
cause temperatures to fall below forecasted values.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday
evening. Low pressure north of the Ohio Valley will slowly move
east through the night, and a few showers may work into western
parts of the CWA before dawn Thursday. This low looks to track
into western PA Thursday, after which its track becomes a little
more uncertain. Either way, rain showers will spread south to
north across NEPA and CNY, north of a warm front draped across
the Mid Atlantic. Precip will linger across the area Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Forecast confidence goes off the rails in the long term. Low
pressure will likely be located somewhere in eastern NY or NEPA
Friday morning, with rain showers continuing. The GFS slowly
lifts the low north towards the Saint Lawrence Valley, while the
ECMWF is far weaker and progressive. Ensembles suggest a wide
range of possible solutions between Friday afternoon and
Saturday evening in terms of precip chances. Kept lower-end
PoPs for Friday Night into the first part of Saturday as we may
end up in a break between systems. The next system looks to
bring another round of rain showers to the area later Sunday,
pushing east of the area Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through at least 0Z this evening before
showers and possibly thunderstorms move in tonight after 6Z. Dry
air initially will prevent cigs from falling until the time that
the rain arrives at the terminals. BGM and AVP have the best
chance at seeing IFR cigs as there are better odds of better
moisture arriving later in the night. There is some instability
as the showers move through so thunder is possible but
confidence is too low to include in the TAF yet. Heavy rain
showers were added for the best estimated timing of the
potential thunderstorms. Tomorrow, winds pick up and drier air
moves back in with VFR conditions returning to all terminals by
18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon... isolated yet gusty thunderstorms
possible with associated restrictions.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Periods of showers with some
restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region,
especially Thursday-Friday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...AJG