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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 221738
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
138 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and sunny today, but continued cool weather will remain
over the region. Rain showers return to the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Dry and seasonable weather will finish out the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 AM Update...

Temps are in the low to mid 30s across the region, with a few of
the normal cold spots hitting the upper 20s. A small area of
clouds has drifted in from the north, stretching from Lake
Ontario into the Catskills. This should dissipate in the next
couple of hours, leaving clear skies for the rest of the day.
The forecast remains on track.

300 AM Update...

A few clouds across the area in what is a very quiet and cool
night. Temperatures currently range in the 30s across the area,
trending a little warmer than originally thought as it looks
like we are getting some more boundary layer mixing than
guidance suggests. Temps should fall a couple more degrees
before sunrise, bottoming out in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Today will see clear skies and NW flow as a high pressure
center moves overhead. The main weather feature to watch today
is RH in relation to critical fire weather chances. With very
dry air overhead and surface dewpoints in the teens to low 20s,
RH values should fall into the 20-30% range during the afternoon
hours. Winds will fortunately be light thanks to the center of
the high overhead, keeping critical fire weather conditons at
bay.

Monday night into Tuesday has some model discrepancy in relation
to how fast winds shift to the SW and advect in a warmer
airmass. Current thinking is a wind shift occurs in the mid-
evening hours, with warmer air moving in later in the night.
Overnight lows should fall into the mid 30s across the region,
warming in the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley first. Low 40s
should move in here before sunrise.

Tuesday will see quiet weather through most of the day ahead of
an approaching trough. Isobars pile up during the late morning,
increasing SW winds to 12-18mph gusting to 25mph. Strongest
winds will be over the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley.
Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s thanks to
strong advection from the SW wind. Rain showers are expected
move into the western counties during the early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update...

A 500 mb shortwave will move through for the start of the near
term. Overnight models have been a little faster and and a
little flatter with the amplitude of the through. Precipitation
still looks to move in from the west late Tuesday afternoon into
the evening though dry air in place initially will likely keep
precipitation from reaching the ground for the first few hours.
The bulk of the precipitation is expected overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. QPF was trimmed down a little bit with the
Southern Tier and southward likely getting less than a tenth of
an inch. Better forcing and terrain influence northward along
the Tug Hill is where locations could see up to half an inch of
precipitation.

With the amplitude of the trough less, the surface low that
develops will deepen less than previously modeled so winds are
less of a concern Wednesday into Thursday. 850 temperatures are
also a little warmer but still could fall to near -10C and
coupled with dry air and a surface high building in, efficient
radiational cooling Wednesday night will lead to a cold night
for late April. Lows look to fall into the mid to upper 20s for
most of the locations with sheltered valleys in CNY and
Catskills even falling into the low 20s and upper teens.

Thursday warms up quick with sunny skies and upper level
ridging starting to build back in. Highs will still be below
normal as weak flow at 850 mb will keep the colder air aloft in
place limiting heating. Thursday night will be another chilly
one but better return flow aloft with the departing high as well
as a little bit more wind in the boundary layer may help
moderate the radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM Update...

The long term is looking warm but a little unsettled. A long
wave trough sets up in the west with the Great Lakes region
seeing strong ridging. Several chances for lee cyclogenesis east
of the rockies late week into the weekend will help pump deeper
moisture into the east coast and with the SW flow aloft, there
is increased chances of seeing quick moving shortwaves so
chances of precipitation were kept high late week through the
weekend. Temperatures likely warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s
and even a low chances at seeing a few 80s by next Sunday if
there can be more sun. 850 temperatures will be rising back
above average with ensemble means up over 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Clear skies will persist into the evening hours, with high
clouds increasing late tonight into Tuesday morning. Clouds will
gradually thicken with lowering ceilings later in the afternoon,
but VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours.

Expect NW winds with a few gusts around 20 knots this afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will turn southerly
on Tuesday, and become increasingly gusty in the afternoon, with
gusts topping out above 25 knots at times.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in
the afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...AJG/MDP
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MPH