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677
FXUS61 KBGM 110811
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
411 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in the rain showers is expected this morning,
before additional showers move in from the west this afternoon
and evening. Additional scattered showers are expected Sunday
through the middle of the upcoming week, before a brief break in
the unsettled weather is expected later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 AM Update:

Our region is sandwiched between two shortwaves this morning.
However, with plenty of low level moisture present, cloud cover
remains along with some areas of drizzle. There is some partial
clearing in some spots (particularly across the Finger Lakes
Region as well as the Poconos-Catskills), but those areas are
quickly filling in with fog (especially in the valleys). Any fog
will dissipate by mid-morning.

Another shortwave dropping through the Great Lakes region will
bring a resurgence of rain shower activity by this afternoon.
Diurnally-driven instability aided by cold air aloft will
introduce the chance for some thunder by later this afternoon
into this evening, mainly for areas west of I-81. Although not
as cool as yesterday, today will still feature below normal
temperatures with highs only topping out in the mid 50s to near
60 (normal highs this time of the year are in the mid 60s to
lower 70s).

The shortwave becomes a stacked low tonight into Sunday as it
moves over the area. This will bring more rain showers to the
area during this timeframe. This low moves east of the area by
Sunday evening which will allow for showers to gradually taper
off. Aside from the showers, another cool and cloudy day is in
store for Sunday with high temperatures only in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
410 AM Update

This period starts off briefly quiet Sunday night, with dry weather
and partly cloudy skies. It will be seasonably cool, with lows in
the upper 30s to mid-40s in most locations. Outside chance for some
patchy frost in the colder valleys of the Catskills, but not enough
confidence to include in the forecast grids at this time.

It then becomes somewhat more active on Monday, as a surface front
slides into central NY from Ontario. At the same some, mid and upper
level ridging will be building over the Mid-Atlantic. This will
cause the surface front to stall, likely somewhere over Central
NY...but the exact location/position is unknown. Along this front
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop. At this
time, further south toward the Wyoming Valley looks to stay dry,
under partly sunny skies. High temperatures will range from the mid-
60s to low 70s Monday afternoon. The stalled front remains along the
northern periphery of the Mid-Atlantic ridge Monday night. This will
keep showers in the showers in the forecast, especially from the
Twin Tiers north into Central NY. Milder with lows in the upper 40s
to 50s Monday night.

The weather then becomes much wetter/more active Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Moisture advection increases on a southwesterly flow
into the region. This is in response to a developing low pressure
system over the Ohio Valley that will move slowly east-northeast
Tuesday night. Exact details remain uncertain, but it could start
off somewhat dry earlier on Tuesday over NE PA and the Southern Tier
before periods of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms move in
from the west along the occluded frontal boundary. Rain overspreads
the region Tuesday afternoon and continues Tuesday night. The latest
trends are for a stronger, slower moving low pressure system with
higher rain amounts for our area...but exact totals are unclear.
Seasonable with highs 65 to 75 and lows in the 50s areawide.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
410 AM Update

Main notable trend for this forecast update was to slow down
the upper level low, which brings higher chances for more
showers and isolated thunderstorms all day Wednesday and perhaps
even into Wednesday night now. The 00z GFS showed this trend,
along with the 00z CMC and the 00z ECMWF was now the slowest,
with the low centered over south- central PA early Wednesday
evening. The 00z ECS also showed plenty of precipitation lingering
over the forecast area all day Wednesday. With this in mind,
started to trend PoPs higher than what the 01z NBM was showing...
but in collaboration with neighboring offices decided to still
cap PoPs below likely thresholds on Wednesday. If this latest
trend continues in the guidance, PoPs would continue to rise on
Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

Most of the guidance still dries us out for Thursday, with the 00z
ECMWF being an outlier in keeping the upper level low close enough
for showers over the eastern half of the CWA. Went back to the 01z
NBM for the official forecast Thursday, which kept it dry and mostly
sunny with mild temperatures in the 70s.

There remains uncertainty and spread in the guidance for Friday;
especially in regards to how fast the next weather system will push
into the area from the Ohio Valley. For now, stayed close to the
NBM, which gives increasing shower chances in the afternoon.
Temperatures stay steady, with highs in the low to mid-70s and lows
in the upper 40s to mid-50s each night.

The next trough and weather system will be over the eastern US
heading into the start of next weekend. This kept more shower
chances in the forecast, with temperatures holding at seasonable
levels.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions have once again been a bit slower than originally
anticipated to move in as of 06Z, but the expectation is that
widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions will move in over
the next few hours, along with occasional IFR restrictions. It
is uncertain if these restrictions will be more from low
ceilings or visby restrictions from patchy fog/mist. KAVP is
expected to remain VFR.

A return to VFR is expected at all terminals by the late
morning/early afternoon, before additional MVFR restrictions
start to move in from the west this evening with the next batch
of showers.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may bring
intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through
the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions possible in
between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG