-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190129
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
929 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier yet cloudy tonight into Friday morning before another
cold front ushers in more showers Friday afternoon and night. We
turn breezy and cooler for the weekend with some rain or even
snow showers possible on Saturday. A dry stretch finally ensues
Sunday through Tuesday with cool temperatures trending milder
through the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor changes with the mid evening update. Previous below.



Early this evening we are watching some drizzle move through
the region. So expanded the coverage of drizzle with this
update. A general dreary night is still expected. Previous
discussion below.


Heading into tonight, any partial clearing early on will
quickly fade behind cloudy skies as Canadian high pressure
continues to build into northern New England. Despite the
increased low-level moisture, guidance maintains a mainly dry
forecast tonight as our washed-out warm front lifts eastward and
upper level ridging and mid-level dry air build into further
into the Northeast. However, some pockets of drizzle may linger,
especially in NE PA and the Catskills, at least through
Midnight as low-level southeast flow upslopes the terrain.
Otherwise, we will not see a large diurnal change tonight given
clouds. Overnight temperatures only cooling into the mid to
upper 30s in the Catskills, Mohawk Valley and NE PA with low to
mid 40s in the Southern Tier, Fingers Lakes, and towards
Syracuse.

Cloudy skies continue tomorrow with temperatures turning milder
in comparison to today with much of the region warming into the
50s to low 60s as shortwave ridging continues overhead. Upstream
we have a closed upper level low positioned north of the Great
Lakes with its associated occluded sfc low near the Hudson Bay.
An attendant cold front will be tracking eastward from the Ohio
Valley into the Northeast. A few weak shortwave embedded in the
southwest flow aloft look to allow a secondary sfc low to
develop along the thermal/moisture gradient as the front
reaches west/central NY. Overall moisture is not very impressive
but with the secondary sfc low will likely provide additional
forcing for showers to continue and spread into the Twin Tiers,
the Finger Lakes eastwards towards the Catskills, NE PA, and
the Mohawk Valley. Best chance for showers looks to be tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow evening and have maintained widespread
chance POPs with even likely POPs west of I-81 by 18 - 21 UTC.
Overall QPF is light with around a tenth expected. Higher
amounts ranging 0.25 - 0.40 inches expected in Oneida County
where some lake enhanced moisture can contribute to increased
QPF.

The boundary looks to weaken as it reaches the Catskills Fri
night with the thermal and moisture gradient becoming less
defined. The boundary may slow down overnight so have
maintained slight chance and low end chance POPs east of the
Susquehanna River into the southeast Catskills. Otherwise,
clearing should ensue behind the front as westerly flow ushers
in a drier air mass. Overnight lows turn cooler dropping into
the mid to upper 30s with low 40s in valley areas thanks to some
radiational cooling. Winds become a bit elevated behind the
front becoming sustained 5 - 12kts overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Expect a chilly weekend as our large scale upper level closed
low tracks towards the Hudson Bay with associated secondary
shortwaves dig into the Northeast. For Saturday, weak high
pressure in the morning will exit to the east as a secondary
cold front will be on the approach for the afternoon thanks to
a more potent shortwave trough tracking through Ontario into the
Northeast. There is some mid-level moisture with the front and
combined with additional lake moisture, a few afternoon rain
showers are possible and we maintained slight chance POPS to low
end chance POPs. We placed the highest POPs near and north of
the NY Thruway into the southern Tug Hill and for the northern
Fingers Lakes given closer proximity to Lake Ontario. Best chance
for showers will be in the afternoon as the front pushes through
the region from northwest to southeast. After temperatures rise
into the upper 40s to low-mid 50s by early to mid-afternoon, west
to northwest winds turn gusty in the wake of the front reaching
up to 20-25kts with temperatures cooling into the 40s by sunset.
Deterministic guidance is not too enthused with QPF generally
under a tenth of inch given the incoming front should just
generate isolated to scattered showers with some locally higher
amounts from lake enhancements possible. The 500hPa cool pool
associated with the incoming shortwave is rather impressive
nearing -25C to -30C so would not be surprised if some sleet or
graupel is mixed in the rain showers, especially late afternoon
as temperatures cool into the 40s.

Clearing skies continues Saturday night with westerly winds
staying a bit breezy overnight as large scale highs pressure
centered in the Central Plains will builds eastward. It will be
a chilly night with temperatures cooling into the low to mid 30s
thanks to some radiational cooling.

We close out the weekend with high pressure maintaining mainly
sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures for Sunday as
northwest flow continues aloft. High temperatures will stay cool
given ongoing cold air advection only warming into the low to
mid 50s...cooler in the upper 40s in the Catskills. Westerly
winds will stay breezy as yet another shortwave and reinforcing
cold front track through Ontario into northern New England. The
winds will make it feel a bit cooler despite the sunshine as
deep boundary layer mixing support gusts up to 20-25kts once
again. Winds gradually weaken overnight but stay a bit elevated.
Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 30s under clear skies.
Leaned on the cooler end of guidance for Sunday night lows
given the more favorable raditional cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunshine and pleasant spring temperatures are in store for
Monday as large scale high pressure stays in control. West to
northwest winds remain a bit breezy for the first half of the
day but trend downwards during the afternoon as high pressure
shifts into New England. As some weak return southwest flow
ensues, high temperatures should trend warmer compared to the
previous few days with highs reaching into the mid to upper 50s
with even low 60s in NE PA and valley areas within the Twin
Tiers.

Pleasant and even milder weather ensues for Tuesday as southwest
return flow ushers in an even milder air mass with temperatures
trending into the upper 50s with more of the region reaching
into the low to even mid-60s.

Another cold front looks to impact the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday with chances for rain returning. Still uncertainty on
the exact timing of the front and moisture fields but
maintained widespread chance and even likely POPs given good run
to run consistency on this system occurring and decent moisture
fields and thermal gradient along the boundary. The parent
shortwave is rather potent and guidance shows it taking on a
negative tilt as it tracks into Ontartio but there remains
discrepancies on its exact track. Despite the strong forcing,
this system looks fast moving and progressive so any hydro
issues appear unlikely. Drier and cooler conditions return for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly Fuel Alt to IFR restrictions continue this evening at
RME/ITH/ELM due to light showers and drizzle lingering over our
region. SYR/BGM can expect to see Below Alt Mins that may last
well into the early morning period, especially at BGM. South
easterly flow over AVP will most likely keep ceilings bouncing
between MVFR and Fuel Alt tonight. Otherwise conditions will
begin to slightly improve to Fuel Alt/MVFR soon after sunrise
at all terminals. Another round of showers is expected to move
through tomorrow afternoon. This will again bring possible IFR
restrictions for ELM/ITH/BGM at the end of the period.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering restrictions in the morning; perhaps a brief
VFR window, then more restrictions as rain showers arrive in
the afternoon and evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs possible
for CNY terminals in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...ES