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744
FXUS61 KBGM 200724
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
324 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and cooler weather today before temperatures really warm
up for this weekend into next week where day time highs will
rise into the 90s with muggy conditions. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible as a warm front lifts back into the region this
afternoon and overnight and then again tomorrow afternoon into
Sunday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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330 AM Update...

With a cold front through the region along with a trough
digging in briefly, temperatures will be cooler with NW flow
bringing in lower dew points this afternoon. Given that there is
colder air aloft and maximum solar heating, there will still be
thunderstorms that will be able to develop this afternoon,
mainly in the Southern Tier and southward where there is better
low level moisture and surface convergence. Coverage of storms
will be isolated at best so chances of precipitation were kept
below 25%.

The cooler weather does not last long strong ridging builds in
tonight into Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight
into Saturday morning as warm air advection strengthens behind
the departing trough and building ridge. Forecast soundings show
very good shear this afternoon and overnight, with 40 to 50
knots though mid level lapse rates are weak and dry air from
5,000 feet to 10,000 feet will make it hard to get any strong or
deep updrafts. Still with the shear, a few of these elevated
storms could develop some small hail in the overnight hours.

Saturday is when the heat and humidity begins to return with
850 mb temperatures rising to near 20 and surface dew points
creeping back up into the mid to upper 60s. There is uncertainty
how far north the ridge will build as being on the edge of the
ridge could mean more thunderstorms in the area especially later
in the day.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

Will be watching shower and thunderstorm potential in this period,
along with developing hot and humid conditions by Sunday.

With Saturday having rising heights aloft as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the region, a strong shortwave
disturbance is modeled to ride over the top of the ridge heading
into Saturday night and Sunday morning. Therefore, most of
Saturday looks dry with just an isolated late day pop up storm
possible across Central NY. It will be partly sunny, a bit more
humid and warm with highs in the 80s areawide. As the above
mentioned shortwave rolls across southern Canada Saturday night,
a strong warm front will push through at the surface for our
area. Mixed layer instability increases markedly overnight as a
strong Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) arrives; mid level lapse rates
approach or perhaps exceed 8.0C/Km with the northwest flow over
the top of the building ridge. This is a classic setup for fast
moving complexes of thunderstorms, so this will be something to
watch closely (especially CNY) Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

By Sunday afternoon any lingering morning convection or
clouds dissipate... and temperatures and heat indices on the
rise. Highs will likely range from the upper 80s to mid-90s
Sunday afternoon, with dew points 70-75, and getting peak heat
indices in the low 90s to low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Main story in this period will be the extremely hot and humid
conditions, with possible record high temperatures early in the
week. Very warm to hot conditions continue midweek, with
increasing shower and thunderstorm potential.

Temperatures continue trending higher with a deeper ridge over
the area. Monday and Tuesday look to be the peak of the heat
wave, with temperatures expected in the low to mid 90s, and
dewpoints in the high 60s to mid 70s, resulting in heat indices
of mid 90s to mid 100s. Overnight lows only dip into the
70s. These hot daytime and muggy nighttime temperatures will lead to
major/locally extreme HeatRisk over the region. As confidence
continues to increase Extreme Heat Watches may eventually be needed.

The center of the upper level ridge/high drops south Wednesday into
Thursday. This will open the door for showers and thunderstorms to
move through our area on the norther periphery of this feature.
Temperatures gradually decrease, but it will still be very warm to
hot on Wednesday with mid-80s to low 90s expected, with generally
80s expected for highs by next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR cigs have developed behind the departing area of low
pressure across most of the NY terminals. ELM and AVP have had
their cigs raise to VFR and will likely mostly stay at VFR
through the rest of the night. Cigs will scatter out shortly
after sunrise at the rest of the terminals with VFR conditions
expected 15Z onward through 6Z tonight. There is a small chance
that thunderstorms could develop in the Southern Tier and South
this afternoon with ELM, BGM, and AVP potentially seeing a storm
near the terminal after 19Z though coverage is sparse.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday... Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.

Saturday night...Overnight thunderstorms possible, especially
over NY with associated restrictions.

Sunday thru Tuesday...High pressure with VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG