Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 052329 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 729 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry and sunny the rest of the work week ahead of chances for scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Becoming warmer this weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 715 PM update... Heat-induced shower activity over Northern Oneida County will collapse over the next 60 to 90 minutes as temperatures cool and instability weakens. Elsewhere, clear skies will remain the rule overnight, with dense fog forming in the river valleys after midnight. Temperatures will fall into the middle 50s by sunrise. 200 PM Update... A 250 mb trough moves through this afternoon with an 850 mb ridge building in. The 850 mb ridge will likely keep the region capped so PoPs have been mostly removed for this afternoon. A slight chance of thunderstorms were kept for the Catskills as an isolated thunderstorm or two could form over the higher peaks. Tonight, efficient radiational cooling once again leads to the formation of valley fog similar to this morning. Temperatures fall into the lower 50s. Temperatures and dew points will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow as the 250 mb rough moves east with an upper level ridge building in its place. While SBCAPE approaches 1000-1500 tomorrow, strong capping keeps us dry tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 135 PM Update... Southwesterly flow will promote seasonably warm temperatures and increasing low level moisture this weekend. A mid-level trof will slowly drift into a ridge established in the western Atlantic and weaken. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will yield moderate instability each afternoon. Low level forcing will be limited, but a convergence zone/weak quasi-stationary front is noted to the south of Lake Ontario on both days. This along with a potential for lake breeze boundary enhancement will promote scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms in central NY with more isolated activity across northern PA. Temperatures will be in the 80s each day with dewpoints in the lower-mid 60s. Lows generally in the 60s are expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 135 PM Update... After the passage of the weak upper level trof...brief ridging builds over the area on Monday before being replaced by deepening southwesterly flow ahead of another system digging into the upper Midwest. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the peak heating Monday afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, increasing warmth and moisture will become the featured weather conditions through the midweek with temperatures surging to the upper 80s, and probably lower 90s in valley and urban locations for Wednesday and Thursday. Heat indices will make a run for the mid 90s given projected dewpoints spiking into the lower 70s. Airmass thunderstorms seem possible each afternoon, with the best day for organization of storms being Thursday as models hint at this day having the best overlap of shear and instability...particularly across the northern portions of CNY. There is some discrepancy in the global models with timing of an upper trof moving in from the Midwest...so the details are rather uncertain. Suffice it to say, that either Wednesday, or Thursday look to be favorable for locally heavy rain producing thunderstorms each afternoon. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the period, except for ELM due to valley fog overnight. Fog could start as early as 06z at ELM, bringing IFR or worse restrictions. The best chance for fog remains between 08z and 12z where Below Alt Min restrictions are possible. As valley fog lifts out of the valleys, BGM could also see some restrictions in the morning. A TEMPO for MVFR visibilities was added to BGM due to this. Fog clears out by 13z at both terminals resulting in VFR conditions for the rest of the period. Winds will be light and variable through Friday morning. Then southwest winds will become slightly stronger Friday afternoon with gusts up to 12kts possible at ELM and ITH. Outlook... Friday Night...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Tuesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially during the afternoons and early evenings.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/HLC NEAR TERM...AJG/DJP SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...BTL

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