-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
422
FXUS61 KBGM 152359
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
759 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region
through Tuesday. A weather system over the Mid-Atlantic then slowly
drifts our way, bringing more clouds, scattered showers and slightly
cooler temperatures midweek. A return to high pressure, dry and
mainly sunny weather is expected for the end of the workweek into
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...

Made the usual tweaks to temperatures and dew points using
current observations. Otherwise conditions continue to remain
dry this evening.

220 PM Update...

Quiet, early fall weather will continue dominate the near term
period. Just some scattered mid level cumulus clouds popping up this
afternoon over the region, and there is a 5-10% chance for an
isolated shower over the Catskills; otherwise remaining dry and warm
with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s into this evening.

Cumulus clouds fade away after sunset, giving way to mainly clear
skies overnight as temperatures cool back into the 50s. Light and
variable winds with a 1028mb ridge of high pressure over the region
will bring another round of valley fog to the area.

The valley fog dissipates by 9-11 AM Monday morning, then a
return to mostly sunny conditions are expected. A large upper
level ridge remains over Central NY and Northeast PA through the
day, the the surface high still over the area, or just off the
New England coast later in the day. Expect dry weather, light
easterly winds and warm temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s
once again.

Not much changes for Monday night, as a slightly weaker 1025mb
surface high remains over southern New England, extending west into
our region as well. There is some hint of more scattered to broken
mid/high level clouds potentially moving north into our area
overnight. Still thinking there will be valley fog forming, but if
the high clouds end up more extensive than currently forecast this
would put a damper on the fog formation. Consistent overnight lows
in the 50s to near 60 expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
100 PM Update...

High pressure will continue to reign supreme on Tuesday, keeping
conditions warm and dry. Clouds will increase from south to
north through the day as a low pressure system develops over the
SE USA. Temps Tuesday will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s
across the region.

We start to see a pattern change on Tuesday night as a closed
low moves out of the SE US and into the Ohio River Valley and
the ridge slides to the NE. The latest guidance has shifted a
bit from previous runs, keeping the ridge closer to the area,
which in turn limits the spread north of rain showers Tuesday
night and Wednesday.  Both the deterministic and ensemble runs
of the GFS and Euro are showing this trend, which keeps the best
chance for PoPs over NEPA through Wednesday night. Continued
slight chance to low end chance PoPs spreading north into the
Mohawk Valley given the uncertainty with how the ridge and
closed low will interact. QPF amounts are forecast to be low,
with up to 0.25in expected over NEPA and lower amounts in CNY.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s.

Wednesday night, the closed upper low stops its progression
north and begins to slide back to the ESE into the Virginias.
While doing this, a lobe of energy breaks away from the main low
and develops a secondary low pressure center off the NJ coast.
By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, the secondary
low center will become the primary center as the upper trough
opens and the majority of the precipitation moves off the
southern New England Coast. Because this development is
relatively new and confidence is low, kept low end chance/slight
chance PoPs across the area through Wednesday night. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 PM Update...

Showers could linger in NEPA and the Catskills on Thursday as
the surface low off southern New England slowly moves eastward.
Recent guidance shows a ridge quickly building into the region
from the north Thursday afternoon or evening. This should dry
out the region Thursday night through Saturday. However, the old
adage is that one can never trust guidance`s handling of a
closed upper low. The Euro and GFS are differ in how the low
develops, but both show it moving SSE and the ridge building in
from the north. Timing is still unsure with the ridge so kept
slight chance PoPs over Southern Tier, NEPA and Catskills
through Friday morning. Conditions should dry out by then and we
will see dry weather through Saturday. Temps should be
seasonable through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions with scattered mid level clouds over central NY
will persist into the evening hours. Valley fog is expected to
develop again tonight, with the worst impacts at ELM as usual.
Expect onset time of restrictions around 04Z, with 1/4SM vis
prevailing by around 09Z. Light fog also possible at RME, but is
expected to avoid all other terminals.

VFR conditions will return between 13Z and 15Z.

Winds will be light and variable up to around 5-7 kts through
the period.

.Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; valley fog possible
with visby restrictions at KELM.

Wednesday and Friday...Increasing chances for showers and
possible restrictions, especially Southern Tier and NEPA
terminals. Low confidence.

Friday...Mainly VFR expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM/MPH