Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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744 FXUS61 KBGM 200724 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 324 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy and cooler weather today before temperatures really warm up for this weekend into next week where day time highs will rise into the 90s with muggy conditions. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as a warm front lifts back into the region this afternoon and overnight and then again tomorrow afternoon into Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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330 AM Update... With a cold front through the region along with a trough digging in briefly, temperatures will be cooler with NW flow bringing in lower dew points this afternoon. Given that there is colder air aloft and maximum solar heating, there will still be thunderstorms that will be able to develop this afternoon, mainly in the Southern Tier and southward where there is better low level moisture and surface convergence. Coverage of storms will be isolated at best so chances of precipitation were kept below 25%. The cooler weather does not last long strong ridging builds in tonight into Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight into Saturday morning as warm air advection strengthens behind the departing trough and building ridge. Forecast soundings show very good shear this afternoon and overnight, with 40 to 50 knots though mid level lapse rates are weak and dry air from 5,000 feet to 10,000 feet will make it hard to get any strong or deep updrafts. Still with the shear, a few of these elevated storms could develop some small hail in the overnight hours. Saturday is when the heat and humidity begins to return with 850 mb temperatures rising to near 20 and surface dew points creeping back up into the mid to upper 60s. There is uncertainty how far north the ridge will build as being on the edge of the ridge could mean more thunderstorms in the area especially later in the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 320 AM Update... Will be watching shower and thunderstorm potential in this period, along with developing hot and humid conditions by Sunday. With Saturday having rising heights aloft as an upper level ridge begins to build over the region, a strong shortwave disturbance is modeled to ride over the top of the ridge heading into Saturday night and Sunday morning. Therefore, most of Saturday looks dry with just an isolated late day pop up storm possible across Central NY. It will be partly sunny, a bit more humid and warm with highs in the 80s areawide. As the above mentioned shortwave rolls across southern Canada Saturday night, a strong warm front will push through at the surface for our area. Mixed layer instability increases markedly overnight as a strong Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) arrives; mid level lapse rates approach or perhaps exceed 8.0C/Km with the northwest flow over the top of the building ridge. This is a classic setup for fast moving complexes of thunderstorms, so this will be something to watch closely (especially CNY) Saturday night into Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon any lingering morning convection or clouds dissipate... and temperatures and heat indices on the rise. Highs will likely range from the upper 80s to mid-90s Sunday afternoon, with dew points 70-75, and getting peak heat indices in the low 90s to low 100s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 320 AM Update... Main story in this period will be the extremely hot and humid conditions, with possible record high temperatures early in the week. Very warm to hot conditions continue midweek, with increasing shower and thunderstorm potential. Temperatures continue trending higher with a deeper ridge over the area. Monday and Tuesday look to be the peak of the heat wave, with temperatures expected in the low to mid 90s, and dewpoints in the high 60s to mid 70s, resulting in heat indices of mid 90s to mid 100s. Overnight lows only dip into the 70s. These hot daytime and muggy nighttime temperatures will lead to major/locally extreme HeatRisk over the region. As confidence continues to increase Extreme Heat Watches may eventually be needed. The center of the upper level ridge/high drops south Wednesday into Thursday. This will open the door for showers and thunderstorms to move through our area on the norther periphery of this feature. Temperatures gradually decrease, but it will still be very warm to hot on Wednesday with mid-80s to low 90s expected, with generally 80s expected for highs by next Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR cigs have developed behind the departing area of low pressure across most of the NY terminals. ELM and AVP have had their cigs raise to VFR and will likely mostly stay at VFR through the rest of the night. Cigs will scatter out shortly after sunrise at the rest of the terminals with VFR conditions expected 15Z onward through 6Z tonight. There is a small chance that thunderstorms could develop in the Southern Tier and South this afternoon with ELM, BGM, and AVP potentially seeing a storm near the terminal after 19Z though coverage is sparse. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions. Saturday night...Overnight thunderstorms possible, especially over NY with associated restrictions. Sunday thru Tuesday...High pressure with VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...AJG