Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 072336 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 736 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather will persist over the region through Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase heading into Monday and Tuesday, as a weak cold front slowly drags across the area. Humidity will then decrease later in the week with more seasonal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 630 PM Update... Reduced both precipitation chances and cloud cover for the overnight hours. The high clouds advecting in from the north have been thinner and not as great of coverage and most of the fair weather cumulus will dissipate after sunset. Only a few showers remain in NEPA. A small shower or two could pop up in the Southern Tier over the next few hours but not enough coverage or intensity to keep PoPs going. 330 PM Update... Convection has continued to be most concentrated in NE PA and into the Catskills, as expected, with diminishing coverage over central NY. Storms have been taking advantage of higher PWATs, with brief heavy downpours in PA, but with not much lightning given warm/moist soundings and relatively low cloud tops. Heading into the evening, we could still see a slight uptick in convective coverage over the Finger Lakes, but with weak forcing, it`ll remain isolated. Warm/moist airmass will remain in place heading into tomorrow. Dewpoint grids looked a little on the low side in NE PA, especially given the little boost in boundary layer and soil moisture from the current rain showers. Most valley locations look to hang on to upper-60s to lower-70s dewpoints, and NE PA will be least affected by cloud cover through the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will see an uptick tomorrow afternoon as upper level forcing improves with several weak shortwave troughs preceding a slow-moving cold front. The cold front will only drag itself into the western/northern parts of the CWA late Monday night, keeping the risk of precip lingering well into the night. Light winds aloft will limit any threat of severe weather, and locally heavy downpours will remain the main feature as PWAT values look to exceed 2 inches in places. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An elongated mid-level trough with a surface low pressure system and associated front will be the main weathermaker for the short term period. The surface low quickly move across the St. Lawrence river valley Monday night into Tuesday, slowly dragging a cold front into the region from the NW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along the front as it slogs its way across CNY. With the low quickly lifting to the NE out of the St Lawrence valley, the front becomes less progressive and is expected to stall out across NEPA and the southern Catskills. How far south the front moves will depend on how quickly the low races NE, taking the forcing with it. Models are starting to come together with the front settling somewhere between NEPA and SEPA. For this forecast package, the thinking is that the low will move off fast enough to stall the front out over NEPA. This allows for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms spreading from NW to SE as the day progresses, with areas across the Southern Tier, NEPA and the Catskills seeing the best chance for thunderstorms. Right now the mean flow will keep showers and thunderstorms somewhat progressive, as it is not a great set up for back building or training precip. Though given the orientation of the front relative to the mean flow, there is a chance multiple clusters of thunderstorms could move over the same spots with several hours passing between the storms. Highs on Tuesday will be drastically different depending on what side of the front you are on. The Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley will see highs in the mid to upper 70s while NEPA and the southern Catskills will reach the mid to upper 80s with the Wyoming Valley in the low 90s. Scattered showers and storms likely persist through Tuesday night, especially east of the front over NEPA into the Catskills as the front lingers over NE and Eastern PA. Lows are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Some guidance is trying to generate a surface low off the NJ coast along the stalled front on Wednesday, which if occurs would help enhance rainfall chances over the SE portion of the CWA. The 12z guidance has delayed this chance to later in the week as a strong upper level trough approaches the region. The front is expected to linger and slowly drift south, as seen in height falls across the area. Scattered rain showers are likely across NEPA and the Catskills Wednesday afternoon as convection from daytime heating interacts with the sagging front. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. Wednesday night, the precip will push off to the SE as the front moves out of the area. Lingering showers may hang around the Catskills and Poconos until the late overnight hours. Lows are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An amplified upper level trough will dig into the Great Lakes Thursday, developing a mid-level closed low over southern New England. NW flow will develop over the area, pushing in dry, Canadian air into the region. Some scattered showers may develop along this boundary as it moves through the region, but it will have little moisture to work with so widespread showers are not expected. A surface low is also forecast to develop off the coast of NJ Thursday or Friday morning. Timing and location are still uncertain, but current thinking is that it will develop too far east to bring any showers to the area. Friday through Sunday is expected to have some wonderful weather for the middle of August. The upper level trough moves over the region by Friday, bringing NW flow across the CWA at all levels of the atmosphere, reinforcing the dry airmass overhead. This will allow for daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s on Friday and Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday with dry conditions. Friday night will see lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, almost 10 degrees colder than normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are at all terminals and its mostly expected to be VFR through 0Z tomorrow. The possible fog restrictions at ELM have been moved to a tempo as confidence is lower with no rain today, high clouds advecting in, and stronger winds just above the surface. A tempo for mist was added to AVP with a moist SW flow into the Poconos that could cause some low cigs tonight as well as patchy fog in the foothills. Tomorrow, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. Lapse rates are better so storms will likely be taller than they were today so lightning is more likely. Right now the best thunderstorm chances are north so RME has a prob30 added while thunderstorm confidence was under 30% at all other terminals with a tempo for showers or predominant if a tempo was already used to cover the rough timing of the precipitation. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...Passing frontal system may bring a more organized likelihood of showers and thunderstorms with restrictions, eventually involving most or all terminals. Wednesday Night through Friday...Conditions improving to mainly VFR as drier air works into the region.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ038-043-044- 047-048. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ015>018-022>025-036- 037-055-056. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...AJG/MJM/MPH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.