-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 052329
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
729 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and sunny the rest of the work week ahead of chances
for scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Becoming
warmer this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715 PM update...

Heat-induced shower activity over Northern Oneida County will
collapse over the next 60 to 90 minutes as temperatures cool and
instability weakens.

Elsewhere, clear skies will remain the rule overnight, with
dense fog forming in the river valleys after midnight.

Temperatures will fall into the middle 50s by sunrise.


200 PM Update...

A 250 mb trough moves through this afternoon with an 850 mb
ridge building in. The 850 mb ridge will likely keep the region
capped so PoPs have been mostly removed for this afternoon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms were kept for the Catskills as an
isolated thunderstorm or two could form over the higher peaks.

Tonight, efficient radiational cooling once again leads to the
formation of valley fog similar to this morning. Temperatures
fall into the lower 50s.

Temperatures and dew points will be a few degrees warmer
tomorrow as the 250 mb rough moves east with an upper level
ridge building in its place. While SBCAPE approaches 1000-1500
tomorrow, strong capping keeps us dry tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
135 PM Update...

Southwesterly flow will promote seasonably warm temperatures and
increasing low level moisture this weekend. A mid-level trof will
slowly drift into a ridge established in the western Atlantic and
weaken. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will yield moderate
instability each afternoon. Low level forcing will be limited, but a
convergence zone/weak quasi-stationary front is noted to the south
of Lake Ontario on both days. This along with a potential for lake
breeze boundary enhancement will promote scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms in central NY with more isolated activity
across northern PA. Temperatures will be in the 80s each day with
dewpoints in the lower-mid 60s. Lows generally in the 60s are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
135 PM Update...

After the passage of the weak upper level trof...brief ridging
builds over the area on Monday before being replaced by deepening
southwesterly flow ahead of another system digging into the upper
Midwest. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible during
the peak heating Monday afternoon and early evening. Otherwise,
increasing warmth and moisture will become the featured weather
conditions through the midweek with temperatures surging to the
upper 80s, and probably lower 90s in valley and urban locations for
Wednesday and Thursday. Heat indices will make a run for the mid 90s
given projected dewpoints spiking into the lower 70s. Airmass
thunderstorms seem possible each afternoon, with the best day for
organization of storms being Thursday as models hint at this day
having the best overlap of shear and instability...particularly
across the northern portions of CNY. There is some discrepancy in
the global models with timing of an upper trof moving in from the
Midwest...so the details are rather uncertain. Suffice it to say,
that either Wednesday, or Thursday look to be favorable for locally
heavy rain producing thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the period,
except for ELM due to valley fog overnight. Fog could start as
early as 06z at ELM, bringing IFR or worse restrictions. The
best chance for fog remains between 08z and 12z where Below Alt
Min restrictions are possible. As valley fog lifts out of the
valleys, BGM could also see some restrictions in the morning. A
TEMPO for MVFR visibilities was added to BGM due to this. Fog
clears out by 13z at both terminals resulting in VFR conditions
for the rest of the period.

Winds will be light and variable through Friday morning. Then
southwest winds will become slightly stronger Friday afternoon
with gusts up to 12kts possible at ELM and ITH.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Tuesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions, especially during the
afternoons and early evenings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/HLC
NEAR TERM...AJG/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...BTL