-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 072336
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
736 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather will persist over the region through
Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase heading
into Monday and Tuesday, as a weak cold front slowly drags
across the area. Humidity will then decrease later in the week
with more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...
Reduced both precipitation chances and cloud cover for the
overnight hours. The high clouds advecting in from the north
have been thinner and not as great of coverage and most of the
fair weather cumulus will dissipate after sunset. Only a few
showers remain in NEPA. A small shower or two could pop up in
the Southern Tier over the next few hours but not enough
coverage or intensity to keep PoPs going.

330 PM Update...
Convection has continued to be most concentrated in NE PA and
into the Catskills, as expected, with diminishing coverage over
central NY. Storms have been taking advantage of higher PWATs,
with brief heavy downpours in PA, but with not much lightning
given warm/moist soundings and relatively low cloud tops.

Heading into the evening, we could still see a slight uptick in
convective coverage over the Finger Lakes, but with weak
forcing, it`ll remain isolated.

Warm/moist airmass will remain in place heading into tomorrow.
Dewpoint grids looked a little on the low side in NE PA,
especially given the little boost in boundary layer and soil
moisture from the current rain showers. Most valley locations
look to hang on to upper-60s to lower-70s dewpoints, and NE PA
will be least affected by cloud cover through the afternoon.

Thunderstorm coverage will see an uptick tomorrow afternoon as
upper level forcing improves with several weak shortwave troughs
preceding a slow-moving cold front. The cold front will only
drag itself into the western/northern parts of the CWA late
Monday night, keeping the risk of precip lingering well into the
night.

Light winds aloft will limit any threat of severe weather, and
locally heavy downpours will remain the main feature as PWAT
values look to exceed 2 inches in places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An elongated mid-level trough with a surface low pressure
system and associated front will be the main weathermaker for
the short term period.

The surface low quickly move across the St. Lawrence river
valley Monday night into Tuesday, slowly dragging a cold front
into the region from the NW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to form along the front as it slogs its way across
CNY. With the low quickly lifting to the NE out of the St
Lawrence valley, the front becomes less progressive and is
expected to stall out across NEPA and the southern Catskills.
How far south the front moves will depend on how quickly the low
races NE, taking the forcing with it. Models are starting to
come together with the front settling somewhere between NEPA and
SEPA. For this forecast package, the thinking is that the low
will move off fast enough to stall the front out over NEPA. This
allows for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms spreading
from NW to SE as the day progresses, with areas across the
Southern Tier, NEPA and the Catskills seeing the best chance for
thunderstorms. Right now the mean flow will keep showers and
thunderstorms somewhat progressive, as it is not a great set up
for back building or training precip. Though given the
orientation of the front relative to the mean flow, there is a
chance multiple clusters of thunderstorms could move over the
same spots with several hours passing between the storms.

Highs on Tuesday will be drastically different depending on what
side of the front you are on. The Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley
will see highs in the mid to upper 70s while NEPA and the
southern Catskills will reach the mid to upper 80s with the
Wyoming Valley in the low 90s.

Scattered showers and storms likely persist through Tuesday
night, especially east of the front over NEPA into the
Catskills as the front lingers over NE and Eastern PA. Lows are
expected to be in the low to mid 60s.

Some guidance is trying to generate a surface low off the NJ
coast along the stalled front on Wednesday, which if occurs
would help enhance rainfall chances over the SE portion of the
CWA. The 12z guidance has delayed this chance to later in the
week as a strong upper level trough approaches the region. The
front is expected to linger and slowly drift south, as seen in
height falls across the area. Scattered rain showers are likely
across NEPA and the Catskills Wednesday afternoon as convection
from daytime heating interacts with the sagging front. Afternoon
highs are expected to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s across the
region.

Wednesday night, the precip will push off to the SE as the front
moves out of the area. Lingering showers may hang around the
Catskills and Poconos until the late overnight hours. Lows are
expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An amplified upper level trough will dig into the Great Lakes
Thursday, developing a mid-level closed low over southern New
England. NW flow will develop over the area, pushing in dry,
Canadian air into the region. Some scattered showers may develop
along this boundary as it moves through the region, but it will
have little moisture to work with so widespread showers are not
expected. A surface low is also forecast to develop off the
coast of NJ Thursday or Friday morning. Timing and location are
still uncertain, but current thinking is that it will develop
too far east to bring any showers to the area.

Friday through Sunday is expected to have some wonderful
weather for the middle of August. The upper level trough moves
over the region by Friday, bringing NW flow across the CWA at
all levels of the atmosphere, reinforcing the dry airmass
overhead. This will allow for daytime highs in the mid to upper
70s on Friday and Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday
with dry conditions. Friday night will see lows in the upper 40s
to low 50s, almost 10 degrees colder than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are at all terminals and its mostly expected to
be VFR through 0Z tomorrow. The possible fog restrictions at ELM
have been moved to a tempo as confidence is lower with no rain
today, high clouds advecting in, and stronger winds just above
the surface. A tempo for mist was added to AVP with a moist SW
flow into the Poconos that could cause some low cigs tonight as
well as patchy fog in the foothills.

Tomorrow, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected. Lapse rates are better so storms will likely be taller
than they were today so lightning is more likely. Right now the
best thunderstorm chances are north so RME has a prob30 added
while thunderstorm confidence was under 30% at all other
terminals with a tempo for showers or predominant if a tempo
was already used to cover the rough timing of the precipitation.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...Passing frontal system may
bring a more organized likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
with restrictions, eventually involving most or all terminals.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Conditions improving to mainly
VFR as drier air works into the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ038-043-044-
     047-048.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ015>018-022>025-036-
     037-055-056.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/MJM/MPH