Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 191115 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 715 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will track through this morning with mainly snow, though mixed with rain south of the Twin Tiers. As colder air rushes in late afternoon through evening, some snow squalls are possible, especially in Central New York. Scattered mixed snow and rain showers will persist into Friday, but mostly sunny and dry weather is coming for this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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7 AM update... Main wave of accumulating snow is already wrapping up. However, another small wave is running up along the front that is now pressing through Ohio-far NW PA. This will cause another enhancement of precipitation mid morning to early afternoon for the central to southeastern part of our area. It may result in another skiff of snow accumulation at higher elevations, and mixed rain/snow at lower elevations. Between the departing and approaching waves, clouds have at times struggled to reach crystal-growing temperatures, and thus patchy drizzle is actually possible the next couple hours or so. This includes freezing drizzle on elevated surfaces, where temperatures are still 32 degrees or lower. Previous discussion... A quick-hitting low pressure system will bring snow or mixed rain/snow to the region this morning, followed by possible snow squalls by late afternoon through evening. At least scattered mixed snow/rain showers will linger into Friday. Latest models have taken a last-second southward jog in track of the low that will impact the region this morning. Precipitation expectations and thermal profiles have responded accordingly; more supportive of snow as type even into the Poconos. Lowest elevations of Luzerne-Lackawanna PA/Sullivan County NY will still have a tougher time getting snow but elsewhere a quick light accumulation of snow is expected to zip through this morning. Southern Tier-Southern Finger Lakes-Upper Susquehanna- Catskills of NY, and Northern Tier- Poconos of PA will generally range from 1-2 inches snow accumulation, with highest elevations perhaps 2-3 inches especially Southwestern Catskills- Northern Tier PA hilltops. Northern Finger Lakes-Mohawk Valley- NY Thruway Corridor meanwhile will likely receive less than an inch this morning. Little or no snow for lowest elevations of Wyoming Valley/Delaware Valley in Northeast PA. As precipitation becomes more spotty midday there will be a more equal-opportunity mixing of rain/snow showers with no accumulation, and in fact most of any new snow cover will tend to melt thanks to the mid April sun angle. However, for that same reason, diurnal surface heating will combine with cold air advection aloft to steepen lapse rates considerably. This resulting instability along with an upper level trough axis swinging through the area late afternoon through evening, and northwest flow picking up lake moisture, may result in localized yet fairly intense snow squalls such as what recently occurred on Tuesday afternoon. Coverage as usual will be greater in Central NY, but some streamers could even cross into Northeast PA at times. Overall accumulations mid afternoon through tonight will only amount from a dusting to 1-2 inches at highest elevations, but the snow that does fall will come in bursts. After highs of mid 30s-lower 40s today, lows tonight will be mid 20s-lower 30s. On Friday, northwest flow will be deep but moisture will start to become shallower with time as upper trough gradually begins to pull away. It will be another chilly breezy day with highs in the upper 30s-mid 40s, but coverage of lake-enhanced rain/snow showers will only be scattered and mainly in Central NY-far northeast corner of PA. Additional snow accumulations will be scant with quick melting.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 320 am update... Cold cyclonic flow will persist into the weekend with available deep moisture exiting to the east...but not before a few snow showers/flurries brush portions of central NY Friday night and early Saturday morning. Snow amounts will be very light if anything at all. Temperatures Friday night will be on the cool side with lows bottoming out in the upper 20s and lower 30s. High pressure and much drier air begins to move in during the day Saturday but the cool, n/nwly flow will persist with highs only reaching into the 40s close to 50 under mostly sunny skies and light north winds. A surface high settles over the region Saturday night with winds going very light or calm. Air mass will be slightly warmer, but strong raditional cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to fall back into the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 320 am update... High pressure moves ever so slightly to the east on Sunday as a re-enforcing upper ridge builds in overhead, along with a slightly warmer air mass. The pattern will remain quiet and warmer with high pressure aloft dominating much of the Northeast. 850mb temperatures +4 to +7 degC under mostly sunny skies during the day will allow surface temps to climb into the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s Monday and especially Tuesday. Overnight lows will drop back into the upper 30s and lower 40s. The next system will roll through the Great Lakes during the middle of the week. There are some timing differences among the model guidance, and it appears this system continues to slow down as it approaches. So, even through cloud cover will likely increase Tuesday night and Wednesday...rain showers may not actually arrive across central NY/ne PA until later in the day Wed. The latest ECMWF and CMC are much slower...almost 18 hrs slower...than the GFS. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A system is finishing its passage across the region, with fuel alternate restrictions common and MVFR-IFR visibility at times from snow and/or freezing drizzle for KITH-KELM-KBGM-KSYR and mixed rain/snow for KAVP. See TAFs for specifics on timing. Initially light and variable wind will become northewesterly, with ceilings lifting to mainly higher end MVFR late morning-mid afternoon. However, at least KSYR- KRME-KITH-KBGM are likely to see lake- enhanced snow showers develop late afternoon into evening as colder air rushes into the region. Some of the snow showers could be rather squally with IFR-or-worse visibilities. KELM and perhaps even KAVP could also see brief snow showers. Outlook... Friday to Friday night...Brief mostly minor restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers. Saturday through Monday...VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MDP

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