Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000 FXUS63 KBIS 182344 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Some light radar returns are still seen in southwest North Dakota from the Bowman radar, but it looks like the light precip has just about ended this evening as the baroclinic zone continues to drop south. Otherwise, breezy and cloudy conditions will continue through the evening, with 2330 UTC temperatures only in the 30s across the forecast area. No changes needed with this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Seasonably cool with a north wind and periodic chances for light rain or snow showers highlight the short term period. This evening, a low level baroclinic zone will be draped from central Montana through southwest North Dakota into northern South Dakota, sloped up in the atmosphere behind a surface cold front which is now well into South Dakota. Light snow is possible in the far southwest portion of the state tonight along this baroclinic zone, before it too finally exits south. Monday will begin a period early this week of cyclonic flow aloft with multiple embedded impulses delivering seasonably cool air, breezy northerly winds, and chances for rain or snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s to around 40 and lows around 20 can be expected both Monday and Tuesday. Broad areas of slight chance POPs were used given uncertainty of precipitation at any one location under the unfocused ascent pattern. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Warmer and dry mid-week. No major concerns to highlight in the longer term forecast period. Mid-week, height rises aloft with a building ridge returns warmer and dry conditions. Good agreement exists in temperatures between ensembles/MOS/NBM where highs generally in the 50s can be expected Wednesday and 60s on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity should drop below 20 percent in areas of the west and central during this period as well, though at this time it looks like a relatively diffuse surface pressure pattern should keep winds on the lighter end for fire weather concerns. A weak cold front is expected to cross the region Friday, though the lack of atmospheric moisture and the progressive forcing keeps the current forecast very low on the QPF side. By this weekend guidance begins to diverge more but the mean trend is to return temperatures closer to normal in that time frame as most guidance shows a broad ridge taking over the central CONUS. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF cycle. Breezy northerly winds will subside some overnight with low VFR ceilings partially clearing from the north. On Monday, expect northwest winds to become breezy, with increasing clouds and a chance of rain and snow showers in western North Dakota after 18Z. Not included at any terminal with this update due to low confidence in occurrence. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...MJ

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