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000
FXUS63 KBIS 301913
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
213 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Presently, diurnal cu is bubbling up across much of the area,
especially east and north of the Missouri River, but also in the
very far southwest as well. Subtle shortwave energy, along with
daytime heating, is starting to produce isolated showers and
thunderstorms among the cu field in the north and just to the
south of far southwestern ND. Overall, expect coverage of any
showers and thunderstorms to be relatively low with most locations
seeing no additional rainfall today through tonight. The south
central seems least likely to see any shower and thunderstorm
activity.

Subtle surface high pressure presently located over northwestern
South Dakota should slide into southern North Dakota this evening
through the night. This will result in winds backing to a
southerly direction Wednesday and to an easterly direction through
Wednesday night. A little better wave looks likely to produce
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
later afternoon and evening hours. While areal coverage for
Wednesday looks to be better than for this afternoon, still
expect the majority of locations will remain dry Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Severe weather is generally not expected with
another weak shear day. Although a couple models put a little
better shear, albeit still on the lower end, right along the ND/SD
border.

Highs this afternoon and Wednesday will be mostly in the low 80s,
with a few locations staying in the upper 70s or reaching the mid
80s. Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be mostly in the 50s,
with a few locations staying in the low 60s. Average highs for
this time of the year are in the low 70s, while average lows are
in the upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

The ever-present active pattern as of late persists through the
extended period. Every day will see chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity. There are no days at this point in time
where severe weather chances stick out like a sore thumb. That
said, CSU machine learning does suggest marginal severe potential
Thursday, and this is supported by the NAM, which contains a
better shear profile, as well as more instability than other
models. Overall, would consider the severe threat low, but worth
keeping an eye on Thursday to see how things evolve. High
temperatures are expected to be in the 80s for most locations
through the entire period, while lows will remain in the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. The
exception is that isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop this afternoon into the early evening. Coverage is
expected to be very limited with KDIK and KXWA having the best,
yet still low, chance of seeing any shower or storm activity.
As a result, each location is more likely to remain dry than to
see any showers or thunderstorms. Therefore, left out any
precipitation mentions in the TAFs. There may also be further
shower and thunderstorm development towards the very end of the
period as well.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Telken
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Telken