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000
FXUS63 KBIS 042352
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
652 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

A few isolated thunderstorms have developed and will continue
across northwest and north central North Dakota and upstream in
far northeast Montana. Although the environment is favorable for
convection, updrafts have struggled to become established after
initial development, which could be due to marginal mid- level
lapse rates. As of 2345Z, the strongest storm is the one in
northeast Montana, with extrapolation bringing it across the state
line into northwest North Dakota around 01Z, so we will continue
to monitor this development. Beyond this, there is still an
expectation for scattered showers and thunderstorms to move into
the western part of the forecast area after midnight as another
embedded upper wave approaches. Convection associated with this
feature is already ongoing in parts of central Montana. Refreshed
PoPs with current radar trends and updated high-res guidance,
otherwise the current forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

Severe weather is the theme for the short term again. Multiple
disturbances are forecast to ride the ridge through North Dakota,
this is where our chance of thunderstorms will come from in an
otherwise upper level ridge pattern. The first round is this
afternoon through the evening, then it will be after midnight
with our chance of severe thunderstorms.

Some showers have made it across the border from Montana, as well
as forming in our west. These are moving to the northeast, and
will continue through the afternoon and evening across the west
and north. These showers and thunderstorms are not expected to
become severe. The second round is expected to move in from
Montana around 3am CDT, although most of the CAMs are different in
timing and intensity. SPC has a slight risk for wind and hail
across our southwest. The low-level jet will be southwest of us
tonight and mostly in southeastern Montana, this could limit the
instability overnight and reduce the risk of severe storms the
farther you get away from the far southwest. Storm mode looks to
be a line, possibly bowing out, leading to mostly damaging winds.
Storms look to last through Tuesday morning, mainly south of
Interstate 94. Then we will have a break in the action during the
early afternoon before the next round moves through late Tuesday.

Tuesday brings more chances of thunderstorms as another
disturbance rides through the upper level ridge. With the overall
ridging pattern continuing, high temperatures will be in the 70s
and lower 80s again. The bulk of storms will be later in the day,
around midnight, when the aforementioned disturbance moves
through. The main threats again are wind and hail. SPC has our
southwest in a enhanced risk for now. Localized flooding could
become an issue as soils are already saturated with the last two
nights of storms, and more storms forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

Showers and thunderstorms continue in the long term, as well as
seasonably warm temperatures.

The Northern Plains will remain under this ridging pattern with
the continuation of little disturbances moving through the ridge,
bringing multiple chances of thunderstorms throughout the week.
Temperatures will slowly rise as the week progresses from a
thermal ridge intensifying. By Saturday, highs could touch the
mid 90s across the south central with the passing of the ridge
axis and southwesterly flow moving in. The low-level jet Saturday
afternoon is at its strongest, bringing warm moist air north.
Temperatures at 850 mb look to be in the 20s-30s degrees Celsius,
aiding in the temperatures reaching the 90s. Winds could be
a little breezy Saturday, helping mix down the very warm
temperatures at 850mb as well.

Sunday the flow aloft fully changes to be from the southwest with
a small trough and low pressure moving through eastern Montana.
More showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday with this
low. High temperatures by Monday cool back down to the high 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

A few isolated thunderstorms will continue through the northwest
and north central through 03z, with a more widespread area of
showers and thunderstorms expected to move into western North
Dakota after midnight. Thunderstorms in the southwest and central
could be severe. Precipitation will expand through the area
overnight and into Tuesday morning, with MVFR to possibly IFR
stratus expected to expand from north to south during this time as
well. Conditions will slowly improve from south to north toward
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Jones