Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000 FXUS64 KBMX 042336 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 536 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1048 AM CST Thu Mar 04 2021/ Through Friday. The presence of stable high pressure is clearly evident on visible satellite imagery by the expansive lack of clouds across the Deep South. With a very dry airmass and abundant sunshine, it will feel like Spring outside. At this hour, some areas have already reached or exceeded yesterday`s high, so continued to trend a bit on the warm side of guidance with highs in the lower 70s expected, and I also slightly lowered dewpoints based on the latest trends. After midnight, mid & high-level clouds will increase from the west ahead of a shortwave cutoff low which will be moving east- southeastward through the Southern Plains at that time. The increased cloud cover should keep our overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night. During the day tomorrow, we remain under the influence of high pressure with any forcing still to our west, so we stay dry with highs in the 60s north to lower 70s south beneath a layer of mid-level clouds. 86 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0118 PM CST Thu Mar 04 2021/ Only minor changes to the previous long term forecast. Lack of low-level moisture will greatly limit chances for measurable precipitation Friday night. However, given stout mid-level lift from the shortwave and some mid-level moisture, added in a mention of isolated sprinkles areawide Friday night. Otherwise, went with the cooler guidance especially on lows over the weekend with a backdoor cold front and low dew points. Areas across the north/east will see a freeze Saturday and Sunday nights so any sensitive plants should be protected, but our official growing season and frost/freeze products do not begin until March 15. For next week, went on the warm side of guidance with stout ridging aloft and fairly dry ground conditions. 32/Davis Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0330 AM CST Thu Mar 04 2021/ Friday night. A cutoff low, currently near the Four Corners, will meander toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley Friday night. As a result, increasing cloudiness is expected, with a stray light shower across the south. Lack of sufficient moisture really has dampened overall rain chances as this system passes over the area. Synoptic forcing will exit Central AL by Saturday morning nonetheless. Saturday through Wednesday. The overall upper-level pattern through around Monday will feature some fashion of northwesterly flow aloft and generally stable, dry conditions. I currently don`t have any mentionable rainfall and expect that high pressure remains in control across the eastern CONUS for several days. It will likely be Tuesday before any reasonable changes to flow aloft take place as medium-range guidance suggests ridging across the Plains breaks down and moves eastward. This will promote a warming trend with high pressure moving into the western Atlantic with a subsequent transition to southerly low-level flow here. Sub-tropical ridging is currently progged to build across the Gulf thereafter. Thus, warm weather is expected across the Deep South next week with the primary stream of southwesterly flow aloft to our northwest. Until a Rossby wave can win against this progged deep-layer ridge near the Gulf Coast States, we may remain dry and warm well into next week. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Surface high pressure and dry air remain the dominant weather features across the Southeast, leading to VFR conditions for area terminals this forecast period. Mid-level clouds increase from the west through tomorrow with ceilings at or above 20kft. Winds will be light out of the north overnight, and become northeasterly to easterly Friday morning, at 6-7kts. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... A prolonged period of relatively low afternoon relative humidity values is expected over the next few days, but 20ft winds and KBDI values remain below critical values. Only small/light rain chances are expected Friday night. Relative humidity values fall below 30 percent in most areas Friday afternoon, with a few areas in the east falling below 25 percent for a couple hours. Relative humidity values fall into the 25 to 35 percent range Saturday and Sunday with slightly cooler conditions, and may fall below 25 percent Monday afternoon as temperatures begin to warm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 36 65 37 59 30 / 0 10 10 0 0 Anniston 39 66 39 59 31 / 0 0 10 0 0 Birmingham 41 67 41 60 33 / 0 10 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 42 70 43 62 34 / 0 10 10 0 0 Calera 41 67 41 60 33 / 0 10 10 0 0 Auburn 43 67 43 58 35 / 0 0 10 10 0 Montgomery 42 71 44 62 36 / 0 10 20 10 0 Troy 43 72 46 61 36 / 0 0 20 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$

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