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FXUS64 KBMX 122344
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
644 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tonight)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025

Coverage has been less than Friday, but will continue through at
least 10 pm. Haver added in some low PoPs to account for this.
Most of the activity will be on the weakening side as one area
moves into the east, while a second area will try to move back
into the west. Low clouds and patchy fog will develop again
overnight and close to sunrise, much like the past few days.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(Sunday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025

By Sunday, the upper level influences will have moved to the east
with that low and mid level weak jet decreasing in strength. The
high pressure will have more of an influence over the area, with
west to southwesterly prevailing flow remaining. Diurnal
convection is once again expected. Lapse rates don`t appear to be
quite as steep with less moisture advection. However,
instabilities remain high and there is more dry air in the mid
levels for evaporative cooling and downburst strength the
increase. There could be yet again strong storms, and will
advertise a very isolated severe threat for now, dependent on the
moisture return available.

Heat indices today will be in the mid to upper 90s, with a few
isolated pockets of triple digits. Sunday, temperatures will be
slightly warmer with heat indices more scattered across the area
into the triple digits.

24
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025

Monday, a surface high pressure strengthens and becomes
centered over an AL/MS area. This will allow for northerly low and
mid level flow to prevail, bringing in slightly lower moisture. In
the upper levels, models are trying to show a low to the west of the
MS, which would allow for more southerly flow. With this in mind,
diurnal convection will continue each day, though coverage and
intensity should be a lot lower with maybe an isolated strong storm
or two possible. By Wednesday, models start to diverge with the
GFS showing a low pressure developing in the Gulf and moving
towards Alabama. Confidence is low at this time as ECMWF doesn`t
show the same level of organization, but does clue into increased
rain over the area at the end of next week. Would need to
consider the strength of the high and if that low can push into
the southeast US. There is a weak upper level trough moving into
areas around the Ohio Valley, but the past several model runs have
been weakening this feature and showing an influence more in
northerly areas. Despite all this, coverage could become more
scattered to widespread, especially in areas of the southern half
of the state beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end of
the work week.

Temperatures will increase through Tuesday, with almost the whole
area reaching the triple digits by Tuesday afternoon. Hot
temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday, and if the
low pressure and increased rain (and cloud cover) holds through
Thursday, the temperatures should lower slightly with highs in the
low to mid 90s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025

May see a brief thunderstorm at ASN through 1z, with showers as
late as 2z. Otherwise clearing skies for most of the night. We
will see some MVFR clouds develop around sunrise much like the
last few nights. A rinse and repeat on Sunday with showers and
storms in the afternoon.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

16
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the
foreseeable future. Rain chances will remain isolated through the
weekend and into next week, increasing by mid week. 20 foot winds
should remain less than 8 mph from the west through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Gadsden     70  93  71  94 /  20  40   0  20
Anniston    71  92  71  93 /  20  30   0  20
Birmingham  72  93  73  94 /  20  40   0  20
Tuscaloosa  73  93  74  94 /  20  40  10  30
Calera      73  92  73  94 /  20  40   0  20
Auburn      73  93  74  94 /  20  30   0  10
Montgomery  73  94  74  96 /  20  30   0  20
Troy        72  93  73  96 /  20  30   0  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16