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000
FXUS65 KBOI 050359
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
859 PM MST Thu Mar 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...The warming trend will continue on Friday as temps
are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today. Highs in the
lower valleys will be in the 60s, including the Upper Treasure and
Western Magic Valley. The warmer temps are in response to
southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper trough. Winds will
increase as the trough approaches, becoming windy in some areas
by the afternoon. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR through Friday. Mostly clear skies. Surface
winds: mainly east to southeast 12 kts or less, increasing to
15-25 kts through the Snake River Valley after 18z Friday. Winds
aloft at 10k feet MSL: southwest 20-30 kts increasing to 30-40 kts
after 18z Friday.

Weekend Outlook...Increasing high clouds Friday night. Showers
spreading across the area from the west on Saturday, with periods
of MVFR conditions, areas of mountain obscuration, and gusty west
to northwest winds Saturday afternoon and evening following a cold
front. Snow level 4k-5k feet MSL. Showers ending Saturday night.
VFR on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Mostly clear and
cool again tonight, then windy and warm Friday and Friday night
ahead of a Pacific cold front Saturday. Frontal passage will shift
winds to west or northwest, then diminish Saturday evening.
Before the front Friday will be the warmest day of the week with
high temps into the 60s throughout the Snake Basin except upper
50s near Ontario and Weiser. 70 degrees is even possible near
Bruneau and Grandview. Upper 50s to mid 60s are also forecast for
southeast Oregon. Southeast winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph
Friday in the Snake Basin south to the Nevada border and continue
Friday night. Southwest winds will also blow 20 to 30 mph Friday
afternoon in Harney County, OR, but diminish there Friday night.
The cold front Saturday will bring rain showers to central and
northern areas with pre-frontal snow level 6000-6500 feet,
lowering to 4000 feet as the front passes. Rain will change to
snow and accumulate 1-2 inches Saturday evening in the Boise
Mountains and west-central Idaho mountains, and less than one inch
in Baker County, OR. No thunderstorms are expected with the cold
front.


LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Dry weather to greet the
extended forecast period, with slightly warming temperatures due
to a transitory ridge overhead. The reprieve will be brief as a
return to moist southwest flow returns on Monday. An area of low
pressure off the Pacific coast will send pushes of moisture across
the forecast area beginning Monday afternoon. This will be the
start of a cooler, unsettled pattern which will linger through
much of the forecast period. Expect periods of shower activity,
with mountain snow / valley rain favored. The area of low pressure
influencing this scenario will move southeast of the forecast
area late Tuesday, then across the Desert Southwest through
Wednesday night resulting in a return of northwest flow. Guidance
demonstrates another push of moisture moving along the northwest
flow, which looks to impact the area on Thursday. Temperatures
look to cool through Tuesday, with little change on Wednesday /
Thursday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KB