Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000 FXUS65 KBOI 050359 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 859 PM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 .DISCUSSION...The warming trend will continue on Friday as temps are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today. Highs in the lower valleys will be in the 60s, including the Upper Treasure and Western Magic Valley. The warmer temps are in response to southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper trough. Winds will increase as the trough approaches, becoming windy in some areas by the afternoon. No updates. && .AVIATION...VFR through Friday. Mostly clear skies. Surface winds: mainly east to southeast 12 kts or less, increasing to 15-25 kts through the Snake River Valley after 18z Friday. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: southwest 20-30 kts increasing to 30-40 kts after 18z Friday. Weekend Outlook...Increasing high clouds Friday night. Showers spreading across the area from the west on Saturday, with periods of MVFR conditions, areas of mountain obscuration, and gusty west to northwest winds Saturday afternoon and evening following a cold front. Snow level 4k-5k feet MSL. Showers ending Saturday night. VFR on Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Mostly clear and cool again tonight, then windy and warm Friday and Friday night ahead of a Pacific cold front Saturday. Frontal passage will shift winds to west or northwest, then diminish Saturday evening. Before the front Friday will be the warmest day of the week with high temps into the 60s throughout the Snake Basin except upper 50s near Ontario and Weiser. 70 degrees is even possible near Bruneau and Grandview. Upper 50s to mid 60s are also forecast for southeast Oregon. Southeast winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph Friday in the Snake Basin south to the Nevada border and continue Friday night. Southwest winds will also blow 20 to 30 mph Friday afternoon in Harney County, OR, but diminish there Friday night. The cold front Saturday will bring rain showers to central and northern areas with pre-frontal snow level 6000-6500 feet, lowering to 4000 feet as the front passes. Rain will change to snow and accumulate 1-2 inches Saturday evening in the Boise Mountains and west-central Idaho mountains, and less than one inch in Baker County, OR. No thunderstorms are expected with the cold front. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Dry weather to greet the extended forecast period, with slightly warming temperatures due to a transitory ridge overhead. The reprieve will be brief as a return to moist southwest flow returns on Monday. An area of low pressure off the Pacific coast will send pushes of moisture across the forecast area beginning Monday afternoon. This will be the start of a cooler, unsettled pattern which will linger through much of the forecast period. Expect periods of shower activity, with mountain snow / valley rain favored. The area of low pressure influencing this scenario will move southeast of the forecast area late Tuesday, then across the Desert Southwest through Wednesday night resulting in a return of northwest flow. Guidance demonstrates another push of moisture moving along the northwest flow, which looks to impact the area on Thursday. Temperatures look to cool through Tuesday, with little change on Wednesday / Thursday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION.....JT PREV SHORT TERM...LC PREV LONG TERM....KB

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