Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 021050 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 350 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 234 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 For today the axis of the ridge continues to shift over the state with increasing westerly flow aloft through the morning hours. Cross barrier flow increases with a weak stable layer in place allowing for some increased gusting up to 30 mph over the eastern slopes of the higher elevations through the morning hours. By the afternoon flow decreases but a weak frontal push from the north will help to bring winds to the border counties and northern foothills with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Another sunny day is in store with temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday. Highs across the plains will reach into the lower 60s with 30s and low 40s expected in the high country. Winds will continue to decrease through the day with another chance for low level inversions setting up in the high mountain valleys such as Middle Park overnight tonight. Lows overnight will drop into the 20s over the plains with teens and single digits in the high country. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 234 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 The weather will remain mild and dry Wednesday under a broad ridge, with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s F on the plains and in the 40s in the mountains. A closed low will come on shore over California in the evening and approach CO by early Thursday. Increasing SW flow aloft as the low approaches will likely have little impact for NE CO early Thursday. However, model agreement on the track and timing of the low have improved significantly with recent model runs, putting the center of the low over SE CO by Thursday afternoon. QG fields show moderate ascent of around 5 to 10 mb/hr at the surface increasing to around 20 mb/hr in the mid levels in the afternoon, and we should also benefit from decent mid level lapse rates of about 6.5 to 7.5 C/km across the area. Models are also showing good precipitable water values with the system. Snow should begin in the mountains early Thursday and increase in the afternoon and early evening. Rain should spread to the plains in the afternoon, changing to a rain-snow mix after sunset. Snowfall will decrease overnight and diminish by Friday morning. N to NE upslope flow late Thursday and early Friday may favor the Palmer Divide near the end of the event. The system will exit to the SE early Friday, with N flow and high pressure aloft building back in behind it. Expect mostly clear skies again and near normal temperatures Friday, with highs in the upper 40s F on the plains near Denver. On the NE plains, highs will be in the mid to upper 50s F. It will be warm and dry over the weekend with the large ridge moving slowly over the Rockies. Highs should be back in the upper 50s to mid 60s F on the plains. A shortwave will into the Rockies but models still disagree about its placement and timing. The ECMWF is still bringing the system in a little slower and further S than the GFS, which would support some more light snowfall in the mountains Sunday. The NBM seems to be leaning toward the ECMWF solution with low PoPs for the mountains Sunday, and I have no reason to contradict it. Any precipitation should diminish Sunday night into Monday behind the shortwave and Monday should be mild and dry with increasing SW flow aloft as the next trough comes on shore over California. We might see some more light snowfall in the mountains by Tuesday as that trough advances inland. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 234 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. Winds will mainly be out of the south to southwest through the TAF period with normal drainage patterns this evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bowen LONG TERM...Direnzo AVIATION...Bowen

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