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895
FXUS61 KBOX 240209
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1009 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through New England will bring showers today,
especially to northern Massachusetts, before it heads offshore
tonight. Another surge of unseasonably chilly air moves into the
region Thursday and Friday. A significant coastal storm may impact
the region this weekend with heavy rainfall and strong coastal
winds, with some wet snow or mixed precipitation possible in the
interior.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10PM update...
Lingering lower lvl instability has allowed along-frontal band
of rain to continue to push across the S coast this evening,
with some embedded TS. These have been helped by a weakening
outflow boundary as well which is now offshore.

Already showing signs of low pres developing just to the E
within an area of persistent convection, this will then become
the primary sfc low pres as the upper shortwave pivots to the E.
Dry air entrainment aloft will lead to all rain being offshore
after midnight tonight, but some lingering lower clouds are
likely. Latest HRRR has timing down pretty well, so updates will
reflect it`s solutions.

Previous Discussion...

Showers lifting out however lingering mainly over N/NE MA. The
surface low traversing through the region. Continued ascent
upon an inflow moist-axis. The warm front lifting N as the cold
front sweeps through, mechanisms that`ll keep the shower
activity going but advect it more towards the N/NE. Winds
backing out of the NW becoming blustery beneath the continued
rotating vortmax and mid-level closed low / trof axis. Will see
the low deepen as it becomes more vertically stacked, the
cyclonic trowaling axis beginning to emerge out of the E,
pushing W into interior N New England. Lows mainly subsequent of
cold air advection, lean with consensus of forecast guidance
around the upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...

Lingering showers over N/NE Massachusetts, especially the high
terrain, otherwise a chilly, raw day. Trowal axis and cyclonic
rearward ascent behind the closed mid-level low. Deformation
back across N New England, roughly SW-NE, associated lift with
the trowaling moist-axis. Otherwise blustery NW winds with cold
air advection allowing for steep lapse rates, mix-down of fast
winds to the surface. Gusts up around 35 mph will be possible.
Broken ceilings, prefer to actually lean towards the cooler side
of guidance with most areas seeing highs in the 40s, can`t rule
out upper 30s for the high terrain if precipitation maintains a
long duration, subsequent lower column cooling.

Wednesday night...

Higher confidence of clearing out, winds diminishing. Consensus
of model forecast guidance has the mid-upper level disturbance
exiting resulting in prevailing subsidence. Drier air working in
rearward, cold air advection still continuing and lapse rates
remaining steep. However pressure gradient relaxing, winds should
diminish. Perhaps some lingering clouds and sprinkles along the
high terrain. With the winds still on the breezy side, will stray
from coldest forecast guidance. Still lean with lows well into
the 30s, high terrain in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Dry weather with below normal temps Thu/Fri
* Rain and coastal wind Sat with some mixed precip possible interior
* Unsettled with showers at times Sun/Mon

Thursday into Friday...

Blustery and colder weather continues as deep mid level trough
east of New England slowly moves north. Diminishing wind by Fri
as high pressure builds over New England. Dry weather through
this period with below normal temperatures.

Saturday through Tuesday...

Still watching the possibility for a potent storm to bring a
decent amount of rainfall to southern New England. Still have
several days to work out the details. Depending upon the track
and timing, there sis still the possibility for some wet snow
and/or sleet. This would be mainly across the higher terrain of
interior southern New England. Strongest winds still appear to
be Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

Astronomical tides are a bit elevated this weekend. So, some
minor coastal flood issues would be possible.

Lots of spread with respect to low position Sunday into early
next week. Unsettled weather remains possible with multiple
shortwaves moving through our region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...

Winds shifting NW, becoming blustery through the night. With
any SHRA, low-end VFR / MVFR CIGS and VSBYS. NW Gusts up around
20 kts, highest across the high terrain.

Wednesday...
Continued blustery NW winds, increasing gusts through the day up
as high as around 30 to 35 kts. RA continued to linger N/NE of
PSF-GHG, mainly over NE MA and points N/E. BKN CIGs mostly,
low-end VFR / MVFR, especially lower for high terrain.

Wednesday night...
Blustery NW winds diminishing as do CIGs. SCT low-end VFR / MVFR
more likely for high terrain with the possibility of a sprinkle.

KBOS Terminal...
Most RA activity around 18-20z, watching closely for +RA and SW
wind gust threat along with the possibility of graupel / small
hail. TEMPO for lower conditions. Monitoring for VCTS in the
first 6-hours. Lower conditions and showery weather likely to
linger all the way through much of Wednesday.

KBDL Terminal...
Mainly VCSH with SW winds today, low-end VFR CIGs with some MVFR
CIGs. Bigger story starting tonight going into Wednesday will be
the blustery NW winds, up around 30 kts possible during Wednesday.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Chance FZRA, slight chance RA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts to 40 kt. Chance RA, FZRA likely.

Saturday Night: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance RA.

Sunday: Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance RA, slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/... High confidence.

Increasing S/SE winds today and building seas as warm front lifts
into CT, RI, and SE MA. Small Craft Advisories posted for all but
Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay into tonight, before winds and
seas subside briefly. Low pressure heads to Gulf of Maine tonight,
followed by high pressure Wednesday. Winds shift to W/NW tonight and
increase on Wednesday, with 25-30kt gusts expected on all
waters.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday through Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain.

Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain, chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ230-232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ235-237-250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell