Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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000 FXUS61 KBOX 121923 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 323 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Widely scattered showers this evening as an upper level low pressure moves through New England. Chilly night tonight with dry weather, then turning milder Monday with another round of scattered afternoon showers possible across the interior. A frontal system may bring more showers late Tuesday into Wednesday, then drying out for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A mid-level cold pool over the region has led to diurnal clouds and widely scattered showers this afternoon. With little or no effective shear, these storms are slow moving, based off of KBOX, the average storm motion is less than 10 mph. Good news, PWATs are less than half of an inch, showers remain light. As we lose the heating of the day, these showers will dissipate, ending this evening. Cloud cover thins overnight, becoming partly clear with light southwest winds. If we have enough clearing areas or radiation fog is possible in western Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. Lows are in the low and middle 40s, urban area around Boston likely a few degrees warmer in the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The setup for Monday has surface high pressure off shore and a mid- level ridge to the northwest. 850mb jet noses to our north, but transports higher PWATS, after a clear start to the day, clouds increase during the afternoon. Showers remain possible during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly for locations along and north of the Mass Pike. 850mb temperatures increase to +5C to +7C, closer to normal compared to the past few days. This leads to noticeably warmer temperatures MOnday afternoon, afternoon highs are in the upper 60s and low 70s away from the coast. Do think there will be a sea-breeze developing by mid/late morning, this will keep coastal areas in the lower 60s. Overnight the 850mb jet lifts north with the better forcing and showers taper off from south to north. Clouds and a steady south to southwest wind remain overnight, comfortable overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights * Warm and windy on Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system * Rainy and unsettled Tuesday night through early Thursday * Brief dry out on Friday followed by more unsettled weather next weekend Tuesday Deep southwest flow will support increasing temperatures and moisture in southern New England on Tuesday. 925 hPa temps rise to as high as 17C in some locations in southern New England so we are expecting widespread temperatures in the 70s with mid to upper 70s likely in the CT and Merrimack River Valleys. Coastal locations will be a bit cooler in the 60s. Model soundings suggest there should be good mixing during the afternoon, so it looks like there will be some gusty southwest winds on Tuesday with gusts from 20 to 30 mph at times. There will be a mix of sun and clouds for most of the day, but expect increasing cloudiness and precipitation chances as we head into Tuesday evening, especially across western MA and CT. Tuesday night through Thursday The forecast becomes unsettled by Tuesday night as a surface low- pressure system approaches southern New England. The details with respect to timing and precipitation amounts are still only moderate at best, but it does appear we will get a good soaking of rain during most of Wednesday with 24 hour precip amounts likely between 0.5 to 1 inch. With a likely storm track southeast of southern New England, we can expect north/northeasterly winds to develop as the system passes to our south. In addition to the rainfall, this will support cooler temperatures on Wednesday with highs confined to the mid to upper 60s. Confidence drops off Wednesday evening as some model guidance is resolving a slow departure of this system due to downstream blocking. Thus, we may see some isolated to scattered shower activity carry into Thursday. Depending on how fast the coastal-low departs to the east, we may see some clearing later in the day on Thursday and perhaps some seasonably warm temperatures in the low 70s in the CT River Valley. Winds are likely to remain gusty out of the northeast which will keep the coastal areas cooler. Friday through Sunday The aforementioned surface low should be well east of southern New England on Friday when we`ll be left with a drier air mass that should support a sunny end to the week. Temps look to be seasonable with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Unsettled weather returns next weekend as another low pressure system approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 00z...Moderate confidence. VFR. Widely scattered showers developing across southern New England, with the greatest concentration across western MA and NW CT. Light winds S-SE in the afternoon with sea-breezes along the coast. Tonight...High confidence in CIGs, but low confidence in fog formation. VFR. Low probability for patchy fog possible in prone radiator locations. Light SW winds. Monday...Moderate confidence. VFR cigs. Widely scattered showers possible across northern MA and interior CT during the afternoon. S-SW wind 10-20 kt with sea-breezes along the coast. Monday Night...Moderate confidence. VFR with localized MVFR possible. S-SW wind 10 kt. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Diurnal VFR cu this afternoon with a low probability of a spot shower. Opt to leave out of the TAF due to low confidence in this occurring. ESE wind will continue this afternoon, becoming S around 00z. Overnight, light WSW wind, will have another sea- breeze on Monday between 14z and 16z. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Diurnal VFR cu this afternoon, CIGs are between 4-5 thousand feet through 00z and 02z, during this time a brief light shower is possible. Wind becomes calm overnight, potentially promoting areas of fog, confidence in how widespread or dense remains low. VFR again on Monday with CIGs 4-6 thousand feet. Showers possible Monday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/... Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Monday night.... Southwest winds along the southern waters and southeast winds along the eastern waters through this evening, wind speeds are less than 15 knots and then winds are light from the southwest overnight. Seas are generally 2 to 4 feet, far outer waters seas may approach 5 feet. Have continued a Small Craft Advisory through this evening for the southern outer waters. Southwest winds increase on Monday with gusts under 20 knots. Seas are 4 feet or less. There will be a sea-breeze, with a southeast wind for the near shore waters from Cape Ann to Cape Cod Bay. Showers possible Monday afternoon and evening for northeast waters. Seas building to 5 feet for the southern waters Monday night. Forecasters tonight will need to evaluate the need for a new Small Craft Advisory. Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254- 255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dooley/RM NEAR TERM...Dooley SHORT TERM...Dooley LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...Dooley/RM MARINE...Dooley/RM