Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FGUS71 KBOX 191745 ESFBOX CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025- 027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-261745- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1245 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 ...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... The winter/spring freshwater flood potential is below normal across southern New England. The threat of flooding due to ice jams is also below normal for mid January. You can go to this link for a graphical depiction of this freshwater Flood Potential Outlook: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential. This is the second winter/spring flood potential outlook of the 2023 season. This outlook is based on current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions including factors such as snow cover, snow water content, river levels, ice coverage, recent temperatures and precipitation, and forecast temperatures and precipitation over the next two weeks. ...Recent Precipitation and Temperatures... The first half of January 2023 was exceptionally mild. Through January 15th, average temperature departures across southern New England ranged from 6 to 12 degrees above the climatological normal. Precipitation was generally above normal through the first half of January as well. Precipitation departures ranged from 0 to 2 inches above normal through January 19th. Only portions of southwestern CT received slightly below normal precipitation through the first half of January. Precipitation mainly fell as rain, snowfall across southern New England ranged from 5 to 10 inches below normal through the first half of January. ...Observed Snow Depths and Water Equivalents... Very little snow on the ground in southern New England as of January 19th. There is a trace to an inch of snow across a small portion of the south shore and up to 4 inches of snow on the ground at high elevations of the Berkshire Mountains in northern Franklin county. Elsewhere snow depths are zero. Liquid equivalent of snow on the ground is between 0.5 and 1 inches. Snow depths and water equivalents are much below normal. ...Soil Moisture Conditions, River and Ground Water Conditions... Soil moisture was near to slightly above normal. Well above normal temperatures through the first half of January has limited frost depth to patchy, near surface topsoil. Many ground water wells were at normal to above normal levels for this time of year. However, portions of Cape Cod and the Islands continue to show below normal ground water levels, which has persisted since the drought conditions of the summer and fall. River flows continue to run above to much above normal thanks to above normal precipitation through the first half of the month. Due to recent warmth, river ice has not yet become established in southern New England, but where it does exist, it is generally thin and insignificant. ...Temperature and Precipitation Outlook... An active weather pattern is set to add to the above normal precipitation southern New England has received so far this month. Three systems are expected to bring a combined 2.5 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation between tonight and the middle of next week. Model guidance suggests that rain will be the dominant precipitation type with these systems, but frozen precipitation including snowfall will be a possibility for the interior, particularly the north and western portions of southern New England. Looking further ahead through the end of January, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting equal chances for above or below normal rainfall and precipitation. Thus, after a warm/wet start to the month we may begin to experience weather that is more typical for southern New England in January over the next 2 weeks. ...Summary... The winter/spring flood outlook for freshwater flooding and for ice jams in southern New England is below normal. There will be opportunities for portions of the north and western portions of southern New England to receive snow and ice over the next 7 days with an active weather pattern settling in. Also, given there is no strong signal for above normal temperatures through the end of the month, more seasonable temperatures may provide an opportunity for river ice development through the end of the month. However, since there is no strong signals for prolonged cold weather, confidence in new river ice development through the end of the month is low. Keep in mind that heavy rain can cause flooding any time of the year. The Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook can provide a heads- up for any potential flooding over the next seven days. It can be accessed at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by Friday, February 3rd. $$

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