Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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352
FXUS61 KBTV 200520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
120 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Another dry day is expected across the North Country today with
temperatures finally reaching above normal. Look for highs in
the 40s along with a good deal of sunshine. Our next chance for
precipitation will be on Thursday with rain at the lower
elevations and snow in the mountains. Better chances for
widespread valley rain and mountain snows will come Friday into
early Saturday as a strengthening low pressure system moves into
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 103 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall forecast in real good
shape and no big changes needed at this time.

Previous Discussion:
The visible satellite shows the story today as mostly clears
skies are a welcomed sight for the North Country. 925mb temps
are a tad on the cool side relative towards normal as we will
only warm into the upper 30s today with normal being in the low
40s. Mostly clear skies continue overnight however light
southerly flow will start to bring in some warm air advection.
That picks up in earnest Wednesday morning as 925mb temps will
be supportive of max temps tomorrow into the low to mid 40s
under partly cloudy skies. Wednesday night we`ll see an upper
level trough start to dig into the Great Lakes region and will
start to bring some light precip into the Saint Lawrence Valley
by day break Thursday. With the warm air pushing into the region
Wednesday night we`ll see temps drop initially but shortly
after midnight temps will start warming and so we`ll be fairly
mild with lows in the mid 30s across the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Tuesday...Trend in the 12Z guidance has been for
drier conditions Thursday under broad southwest flow ahead of a
digging upper trough dropping through the Great Lakes which will
further develop a coastal low downstream Thursday night. As such
will keep around some chance PoPs for morning snow showers and
afternoon rain showers but with a modest 850mb SW jet around 40kts
moving through feel precip will be rather light if anythings
falling.

Thursday night into Friday models are converging on a solution where
a series of upper troughs digging through the Great Lakes and
through the Northeast will bring a period of unsettled weather to
the region through Friday night. First trough digs into the Mid-
Atlantic states Thursday night spawning surface low pressure off the
Delmarva Peninsula which track northeast to the eastern tip of Long
Island by Friday morning and to the Maine coast by Friday evening.
This track is a slight westward shift from the 00Z NWP which results
in warmer boundary layer temperatures during the day Friday, but
before then a mix of rain and snow is likely Thursday night with a
couple of inches of accumulation outside of the Champlain and lower
Connecticut River Valleys. By mid-day Friday surface temps rise into
the mid/upper 30s transitioning ptype to mainly rain below 2000 feet
with the higher summits continuing with snow.

Friday afternoon and night a secondary trough shifts southwest into
the region consolidating with the initial trough to form a single
broad upper trough over the Northeast. At the same time, the surface-
700mb low tends to slow its northeastward movement along the coast
allowing for favorable conditions to develop a period of wrap-around
snow on northerly flow across the forecast area Friday night. While
early to nail down the exact snow accumulations, the latest data
suggest several inches possible at the valley floor with the
potential for up to a foot across the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Tuesday...Lingering upslope snow showers will
persist across the higher terrain Saturday morning but the trend
through the afternoon will be towards drying conditions as surface
high pressure over the central US begins to shift east. This will
result in a crisp, cool night Saturday night with temps dropping
well below normal into the teens and lower 20s. Sunny skies will
allow for a nice rebound in temps through Sunday with highs bumping
well into the 40s before a dry cold front looks to drop southward
into the region, cooling things off again for Sunday night, Monday
and Tuesday. Monday will be slightly below normal with highs ranging
through the 30s, while Tuesday looks to be back well below normal
with highs only in the low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions and light winds will
persist through the forecast period. Light northerly winds
overnight will switch to the SSW Wednesday morning generally
less than 10 kts. KMSS may see some gusty winds to 18 kts during
the afternoon as wind channels through the St. Lawrence Valley.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Definite SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Clay/Verasamy



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