Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 201131
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain snow showers will continue through the day today as an
upper level system slowly drifts east over the Canadian
Maritimes. Lingering high elevation snow showers will lead to
the potential for 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation in
elevations above 1500 feet. Temps will remain below normal
through the weekend as a warming trend begins on Sunday. Coming
out of the weekend we should see near normal to slightly above
normal temperatures along with dry conditions and plentiful
sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 731 AM EDT Friday...Upslope snow continues as radar
reflectivities continue to light up on the western slopes. The
upper level trough will continue to pull east over the Canadian
maritimes and lead to upslope snow showers throughout the day
today as the northwesterly flow remains in place. Moisture will
become limited by mid day and the flow should become unblocked
leading to the light snow showers becoming isolated should come
to an end by the early evening hours.

The airmass will still be a cold one as temps today struggle to
reach the 40s across much of the North Country. 925mb temps
remain below zero for most of the day with persistent cloud
cover so I`ve got around 41-42F in the Champlain Valley and with
mid to upper 30s in the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks.

Temps overnight remain near normal with lows this evening in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Even as the upper trough pulls east
the ridge wont build in quite quick enough to see the warm air
push into the North Country on Saturday. Skies will be clearing
except for the Northeast Kingdom where cloud cover will hold on
longer. 925mb temps support mid to upper 40s for highs except
east of the Greens where the aforementioned cloud cover will
lock in temps around 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Deep-layer ridge builds slowly ewd from
the Great Lakes Saturday night, translating across the northeast
CONUS Sunday night thru Monday. Broad mid-level subsidence
expected to bring clearing skies Saturday night, and a long-
awaited period of mostly clear conditions and moderating
temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Winds will remain nwly on
Sunday, perhaps reaching 10 mph or so during the mid-day hours
with best PBL mixing. Looking at highs in the lower 50s in most
locations. For Monday, low-level flow turns light S-SE as sfc
ridge shifts south and east of New England. Should see valley
temperatures reach the low 60s with continued sunshine and
moderation of the air mass. PoPs NIL thru the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Should see deep-layer ridge hold on
as our controlling weather feature during Monday night/Tuesday
as it slowly departs ewd into the Gulf of Maine. Wide diurnal
range expected with continued dry air mass in place. Low
temperatures Monday night are generally expected in the 30s,
with Tuesday`s highs reaching the low-mid 60s in valley
locations (potentially our warmest day since the 69F reached at
BTV on 2/21). Thereafter, anticipate some degree of phasing
northern and southern stream shortwave troughs across the Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic region. The 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF -
unsurprisingly for a potential phasing scenario - differ
significantly on potential details Wed-Thu. The GFS suggests
development of a slower, closed mid- level low across the Ohio
Valley with an inland track of a surface low across our region
Wednesday night into Thursday. The ECMWF suggest more of a
coastal low, with potentially less rainfall, especially for nrn
NY. ATTM, have indicated 40-50% PoPs for Wednesday, and 50-60%
on Wednesday night based on a blend of solutions. Anticipate
some lingering showers during the day Thursday. Abundant clouds
and potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler
temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid 50s for Wednesday and
Thursday, and lows in the low-mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Generally VFR to MVFR flight conditions
will prevail with scattered mountain snow showers across the
western slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks. Visibilities in
the snow showers could drop to as low as 2SM but generally
expect any the showers to have limited impact to TAF sites as
any IFR is anticipated to only be brief. By mid afternoon
expect the threat for precip to come to an end as flight
conditions remain MVFR ceilings with VFR visibilities. Winds
remain northwest in the 10 to 15 kt range with brief gusts up to
20kts.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal



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