Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 150245
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1045 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and pleasant conditions with near seasonable temperatures will
prevail through the weekend as high pressure settles over the North
Country. The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday night
through Monday as a cold front pushes across the region. After the
frontal passage, cooler and mainly dry conditions are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM EDT Friday...Forecast is generally on track.
Winds have gone calm in most areas, allowing temperatures to
plummet into the upper 50s and low 60s in valley locations,
except those very near to a river or lake, with many areas in
the Champlain Valley still near 70 degrees at 10 PM. So some
tweaks were made to temperatures for the overnight, which mostly
bring values down a little bit and help suggest even more
widespread coverage of patchy fog. Therefore, under continued
excellent radiational cooling conditions, added fog in the pre-
daybreak hours around the various lakes in the Adirondack region
and southern Champlain Valley. Seeing clouds move into Orange
county in Vermont as well as Rutland and Windsor counties, so
while we will monitor trends, no precipitation is expected with
this activity. Have a good night!

Previous Discussion...
The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be a good one.
High pressure will continue to build south out of Canada tonight
and spread over much of New England through Saturday night.
This will keep the weather dry through the period. Patchy fog
will once again be possible in the favored river valleys tonight
into early Saturday. Otherwise, tonight will feature mostly
clear skies and lows in the lower 50s to around 60. A few of the
more sheltered valleys could dip into the 40s by daybreak
Saturday.

The high pressure will remain nosed into our region on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the disturbance currently positioned off the Mid Atlantic
coast, which could become a tropical disturbance or Tropical Storm
Kyle later today or tonight, will quickly scoot to the northeast,
remaining well to our south and away from the coast. However, east
to southwest flow will begin to develop between this feature and the
ridge, and this will in turn begin to usher in a bit more moisture
into our area Saturday. The main impact would just be increasing
cloud cover, though a stray mountain shower can`t be totally ruled
out Saturday afternoon. The best moisture won`t move in until
Saturday night however, so any precipitation that does develop will
be light and fairly isolated in nature. Showers will wane in the
evening once the sun sets, leaving partly cloudy skies behind. Highs
on Saturday will range from the mid/upper 70s in eastern VT to the
lower/mid 80s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. Overnight
lows will once again be in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Quiet weather for most of Sunday, with a
chance of light showers late in the day. A narrow, deep-layer ridge
moves eastward and a new area of low pressure begins to develop
south of Long Island. This will cause easterly flow that advects
recycled maritime air into our area. Anticipate increasing cloud
cover with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A few showers could
develop as weak isentropic lift takes place Sunday evening, but
think activity will be limited due to the lack of deep-layer
moisture. Winds become increasingly southerly overnight ahead of the
next frontal system, and with ample cloud cover, it will likely be
in the 50s to mid 60s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Southern stream shortwave and its
associated moisture are likely to remain well to our south, while a
northern stream shortwave lags behind it heading into Monday. Thus
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the northern
stream shortwave approaches Monday. Favorable frontogenetic forcing
and deformation should lie north of our area, and we also will not
realize much surface based instability owing to the arrival of the
system late Monday morning/early afternoon only allowing highs reach
the mid 70s to near 80. At least some PVA and upper divergence will
be present from a weak jet streak and the negative tilt of the
trough, and there will be at least 25 knots of 0-6km shear present.
Thus, a broken line of showers with embedded thunder and light to
locally moderate rain is expected. The system will come through in
classic BTV fashion, with a prefrontal trough followed by the main
front late Monday into early Tuesday. So at least a couple rounds of
showers will be possible. Preliminary estimates for rainfall totals
range from 0.10"-0.33".

Heading into the middle of next week, a somewhat anomalous upper
trough positions itself just to our west. This should net us a
couple cool days and dry weather until the next system approaches
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Sfc analysis shows high pres over northern
Maine with light easterly flow acrs our cwa. This wl provide our
taf sites with vfr conditions overnight with except of some
light patchy fog at slk/mpv. Given large temp/dwpt spread this
evening, thinking fog development will be later at mpv on Sat
morning. Have used tempo to highlight potential ifr conditions
at mpv with mvfr at slk. Any fog/br will lift by 12z with vfr
and light north winds prevailing on Saturday at 4 to 8 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber



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