Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 231350
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
950 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system centered over the Northern Great Lakes this
morning will track southeastward today bringing scattered light
rain and snow showers to the area through Wednesday. Drier
weather will return through Friday night with high pressure
ridging over the area. Another low will track along the New
England coast this weekend bringing more showers, especially
across southern Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 950 AM EDT Tuesday...A surface trough is attempting to
close off into a weak surface low off just to our south as
forecast. Shower activity is kicking off in association with the
feature with light rain beginning to push northward into our
area. Some clearing is noted on satellite imagery along the
Champlain Valley through the Northeast Kingdom, which should
quickly fill in as the disturbance shifts eastward. Updated sky
grids accordingly with the rest of the forecast on track. Have a
great day.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Weak surface low will track southeastward from the Northern
Great Lakes today. Another low pressure system forms off the New
England coast, and we`ll see energy transferring to that low as
it grows stronger through the day. Scattered showers move into
our area around noon, spreading southwest to northeast across
the north country. During this time upper level trough will also
be moving eastward and across New York along with potent
shortwave energy rounding out the base of the trough, but
remaining south of our forecast area. Upper level low tracks
north of our area. PWATS are pretty weak, under half an inch, so
don`t expect heavy rain. Showers continue into the overnight,
mixing with and changing to snow. Shower coverage will decrease
overnight due to strong vorticity maxima shifting east of our
region. Snow levels fall from about 3000 feet during the daytime
hours down to 1000 feet overnight. Surface low deepens off the
New England coast and slowly moves eastward and away from our
area. Flow across our area becomes more northwesterly Tuesday
night and Wednesday, and wrap around moisture will drive the
upslope snow showers overnight. About 1-3 inches of snow is
expected across the high peaks of the Dacks and Greens,
especially the Northwest facing slopes. During the day Wed we
start to lose the moisture in the dendritic growth zone, and
warming temperatures should change snow showers back over to
rain showers before ending later Wednesday. As previous forecast
mentioned, "wouldn`t be surprised to see an image from Mt
Mansfield with 3-6 inches total from Tuesday night through
Wednesday."

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday... Wednesday night through Thursday
night will see a gradual decline in upslope shower activity as
high pressure builds into the region. By Thursday afternoon, the
area will see partly to mostly sunny skies and most areas
should be dry. Cold air advection will continue amid deep
northwesterly flow, keeping temperatures below normal. Thursday
will be the coldest day of the week, with forecast highs in the
20s. As high pressure strengthens Thursday night, decreasing
winds and decreasing cloud cover will support surface
temperatures dropping into the 20s for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather continues Friday as high
pressure remains in control. Looking ahead to the weekend
however, the weather pattern becomes more active as a broad
longwave trough digs into the eastern US. A series of shortwaves
will rotate around the base of the trough. One such shortwave
is forecast to trigger the development of a coastal low Friday
morning off the southeastern US Coast as the upper-level
disturbance encounters an increasingly unstable air mass in the
lower- and mid-levels. The coastal low is forecast to track up
the eastern Seaboard over the weekend, spreading some rain over
the northeastern US as it moves northward. Details on the timing
and amounts of precipitation have yet to be ironed out, but a
trend towards wetter conditions should be expected. At this
point, it appears most of the precipitation would fall as rain,
but a transition to some light snow on the back end of the
system is possible.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions and light winds are
expected to prevail through 00z with ceilings largely in the
3500 to 5000 ft range. Showers will overspread all terminals
during the afternoon hours as a frontal occlusion moves through
the region. Instead of the typical stratiform precip pattern,
it appears precipitation will be very showery with precipitation
on and off through much of the day. Given warmer temperatures,
all precipitation will fall as rain at the terminals with period
of MVFR conditions mixed with VFR conditions when rain showers
are observed. Rain showers will mix with snow showers overnight
end then back to rain showers on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes/Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Neiles



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