Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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125
FXUS61 KBTV 232010
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
410 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deeper moisture will linger over the North Country tonight with
plenty of cloud cover...the threat of some showers...and patchy
fog. We will lose the fog Sunday morning but expect plenty of
clouds and occasional showers as a trough of low pressure moves
into the region. Eventually the trough moves east of the region
on Monday with drier air returning to the area Monday into
Tuesday as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will be
returning to seasonal normals during this time period as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 PM EDT Saturday...Fair widespread area of showers is
lifting northeast across the area this afternoon and will
eventually exit the area by early this evening. Plenty of
moisture around tonight so should still remain cloudy with a few
showers possible and patchy fog developing after midnight. Lows
will generally be in the 50s to around 60.

On Sunday we will see a somewhat similar scenario to Saturday.
After any fog burns off early Sunday we will still have plenty
of clouds around and as an upper trough moves into the
region...we should see showers flare up again. Not a complete
washout but periods of showers throughout the day...especially
in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

Showers will begin to end from west to east Sunday night as the
upper trough slowly moves east of the region. Any showers will
mainly be across Vermont along with the most cloud cover. Lows
will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 PM EDT Saturday...North to northwest flow aloft will
remain over the area through much of this period. As a
result...complete clearing will be a slow process and there
could still be some showers around on Monday...especially over
eastern Vermont as one last shortwave drops down into the base
of the upper trough as it is exiting Vermont. Generally keeping
precipitation chances in the slight chance range. Highs will be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. More pronounced clearing takes
place Monday night with high pressure building in. Lows will
generally be in the 40s to lower 50s with some upper 30s in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected for the
first part of the extended with sfc high pressure building in
behind a departing low pressure system to the east. High temps
Tuesday will be right around normal in the upper 70s to around
80. Lows Tuesday night will provide good sleeping weather with
temps in the mid to low 50s with minimal humidity. Clouds will
begin to increase overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of our
next system approaching from the west. New 12z Euro guidance has
sped things up by a few hours with precip over- spreading VT by
00z Thursday, but have trended closer towards 00Z Euro and 12z
GFS with the idea of showers making their way into the St.
Lawrence valley towards 00z Thursday and moving eastward through
the overnight hours...with drier air in place at sfc, initial
precip may not reach the ground. Additionally, can`t rule out a
rumble of thunder across St. Lawrence valley with some minor
instability present, so have mention of slight chance of thunder
in the grids for points W of Adirondacks. As sfc low pressure
tracks slowly northeastward of international border, precip will
be slow to exit the area during the day Thursday. With a weak
disturbance passing along the international border behind the
main shortwave Thursday night have also kept some lingering
slight chance of showers and clouds in the grids through 12z
Friday.

After this system, our attention turns towards a potential heatwave
kicking off the second weekend of summer. Models are in good
agreement on a subtropical ridge over the eastern US towards the end
of next week with both GFS and Euro showing near 595dm thicknesses
positioned across the Mid-Atlantic/New England on Saturday. Initial
925 temps between 24-27C suggest high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s but right now haven`t gone completely bullish on high
temps for Friday/Saturday...have adjusted Superblend temps up a few
degrees just to show warming trend. At this time, Friday/Saturday
highs are in the upper 80s Friday/low 90s Saturday but may need to
adjust up more as we get closer. Lows through this period will also
be significantly above normal with temps Friday/Saturday night in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Chances of precipitation look minimal
Friday/Saturday due to mid-level subsidence however have mention of
slight chance of thunderstorms in the grids...should anything
develop this warm environment will be conducive to producing
thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Fairly widespread showers will exist over
the area through 00z...but visibilities will remain in the VFR
category. Ceilings during this time will also remain in the VFR
category. However...ceilings and visibilities will lower between
00z and 14z as low clouds move in along with some fog and
drizzle. Ceilings will lower into the 500 to 1500 foot range and
visibilities will range from 2 to 6 miles during this period.
After 14z ceilings will rise into the 1500 to 3000 foot range
with visibilities becoming VFR everywhere. There may be a few
showers...but areal coverage will increase after 18z. Winds
will be under 10 knots through the period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...LaRocca/Banacos
AVIATION...Evenson



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