Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 072339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers this evening will taper off into drizzle overnight.
Portions of the northern Adirondacks and higher summits of the
Greens will see a brief window Thursday morning for some
freezing drizzle, which may create some locally slick
conditions. Any lingering drizzle/freezing drizzle will come to
an end by mid- morning Thursday. The remainder of Thursday into
early this weekend will be dry and noticeably colder after the
mild start to this week. Chances for precipitation return Sunday
onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 615 PM EST Wednesday...Back edge of steady precipitation
is pushing east of the Adirondacks at 2315Z in association with
surface cold frontal passage and mid-level trough axis. Rainfall
totals the past 24 hrs have generally ranged from 0.3-0.6",
including 0.54" at BTV. Continues to appear that shallow post-
frontal stratus layer will hold on through the evening and
overnight hours with patchy fog areas of drizzle developing. In
addition, gradual overnight cold air advection from the northwest
will cool the mid- slopes the fastest, setting up a very brief
window for some freezing drizzle in areas of the northern
Adirondacks above 1000 ft and northern Greens above 2000 ft
Thursday morning. At the same time of the arrival of the cold
air however, we`ll be losing moisture in the mid and lower-
levels which will allow the window for freezing drizzle to be
short. In addition, with ground temperatures in the upper 30s to
40s today, any ice accumulation (and thus impacts) from
freezing drizzle in the higher elevations will likely be
lessened. Overall, have forecast a trace of ice in the northern
Adirondacks and higher peaks of the Greens, mainly between 3 AM
and 9 AM. The slight icing potential has been covered with a
Special Weather Statement.

Drier and cooler air will continue filter down from the north
through the day on Thursday.  Any chances for lingering
drizzle/freezing drizzle over higher terrain should come to an end
by late morning.  After morning lows in the 30s for most locations,
temperatures will struggle to rise more than a few degrees during
the daytime hours...with cold air advection offsetting weak diurnal
heating. The good news is we`ll see at least partial sunshine by the
afternoon as low clouds erode through the day.  The one exception
may be higher terrain, which may stay partly cloudy to overcast
through the evening. Daytime highs will be noticeably colder in
the mid 30s to around 40 in the valleys of central and southern
VT.

Temperatures Thursday night are tricky, with some light gradient
north/northwesterly flow continuing. However, any areas that
are sheltered from the wind and decouple have the potential to
quickly drop overnight, even towards the single digits in colder
hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Lows
elsewhere will be in the teens to low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...

* Mostly sunny and seasonably chilly day on Friday.

Cold air advection continues on Friday with high pressure building
into the area. With 925mb temperatures around -4 to -6C, and with a
northerly wind, expect widespread sub-freezing highs in the higher
elevations and low to mid 30s in the Champlain valley. Southern
zones should warm up to upper 30s to near 40 given that the cold air
is not all that deep with a depth of around 2000 ft. Despite being
considerably colder than first half of the work week, this are
actually typical temperatures for this time of the year. Plentiful
sunshine will help mitigate the wind chill values in the teens and
20s somewhat. Overall, a seasonably chilly day with plentiful
sunshine.

As for Friday night, boundary layer winds do not quite decouple so
expect seasonable low temperatures, widespread teens to low 20s
except mid 20s in the valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...

* Cold but quiet start to the weekend.
* Considerable forecast uncertainty remains for the latter half of
the weekend into early next week.

Saturday into Saturday night...

Cold but generally quiet weather is expected for Saturday. A
combination of building high over southern Quebec and a
meandering/slightly retrograding upper low off Newfoundland and
Labrador due to the Greenland Block (-NAO) will help reinforce low
level cold air advection. Mesoscale guidance shows 925mb
temperatures falling to -8 to -10C range across northern VT and NY
overnight Friday into Saturday morning and again late Saturday into
early Sunday. The question becomes how deep the low-level cold air
gets. Looking at Bufkit soundings, the inversion level is around
2000 to 2500 ft. So like on Friday, did not go quite as cold for the
southern half of the CWA and the valley locations with these areas
topping out in the mid to upper 30s. Overall, similar temperatures
as on Friday although increased cloud cover could cap daytime highs
especially in the eastern and southern zones.

Sunday into Monday...

Models have come into somewhat better agreement on the evolution of
the disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. As it crosses NY
state, the building upper ridge across southern Canada would tend to
suppress it to the south and east. The teleconnections check out as
well because the higher latitude blocking feature (-NAO) expands
from Greenland into Manitoba. While the more meaningful
precipitation looks to be to our south across NY into portions of
southern New England, there remains enough uncertainty to the
northeast extent to warrant having generic 20 to 30 percent PoPs,
especially with an easterly wind helping to moisten up the lower
levels. Thermal profile is generally cold enough for light snow/snow
showers, although the downsloping east wind could lead to enough
warming for the valley locations to have rain/snow showers. At this
stage, not looking like impactful weather other than festive flakes
to make it look more like December. With temperatures staying sub-
freezing through most of the weekend for the higher elevations, it
would be great for snow making elevations for the resorts.

Tuesday into Tuesday night...

Looking into middle of next week and a sneak preview of what
potentially comes beyond the forecast period, the teleconnections
suggest it might become somewhat more favorable for a more active
and perhaps snowy pattern with the PNA becoming less negative and
even go slightly positive (ridging over the Northern Rockies) per
the available global ensemble guidance. This will be long overdue
welcome news for snow lovers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...A challenging aviation fcst tonight with
respects to low cigs and areas of drizzle/br. Have utilized a
mainly persistent fcst for the next 3 to 6 hours which
highlights IFR/LIFR conditions at SLK/MPV/BTV and MSS, with
developing IFR likely at RUT/EFK as north/northwest flow
develops behind sfc cold frnt. As subsidence inversion develops
with very dry air around 10000 ft, expect some improving
conditions btwn 04-06z to MVFR cigs at MSS/PBG and eventually at
BTV as drier air develops on northerly flow and cigs increase.
Elsewhere, a prolonged period of IFR/LIFR prevails thru 12z
Thurs with areas of drizzle likely at EFK/SLK/MPV with some
patchy freezing drizzle possible with light icing at SLK toward
10z Thurs. North/northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots continue
overnight into Thurs with some localized gusts 15 to 20 knots
possible on Thurs, with conditions slowly becoming MVFR at our
mtn sites and a mix of VFR/MVFR in the valleys.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCXX radar will be down through approximately December 12
for a scheduled pedestal replacement on site. This a critical
repair to ensure the operational longevity of the equipment.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Duell
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV


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