Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 202358 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 758 PM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Conditions will be changing sharply at times across northern New York and Vermont on Wednesday. First there will be a quick burst of rain and snow during the morning commute followed by a brief break. However, between 2pm and 8pm expect a burst of heavy snow across northern New York and northern Vermont with a burst of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms across central and southern Vermont. Travel conditions will be impact Wednesday afternoon and there could be some power outages across northern New York due to the heavier wet snow. Falling temperatures are expected Wednesday night and gusty northwest winds are expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 758 PM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in real good shape and no big changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Tonight/Tomorrow Morning: A multi-faceted storm will approach the forecast area beginning late tonight. Overall, a favorable synoptic set-up exists with the North Country being positioned within the right entrance region of the upper jet stream by early Wednesday morning while the upstream upper trough deepens. The first wave of precipitation will be observed during the overnight hours tonight into Wednesday morning which will accompany a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern New England. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow north of the frontal boundary (northern New York and northern Vermont), while remaining rain south of the boundary (southeastern Vermont). Trace amounts of sleet are also possible during this time along the front. Initially, precipitation will be observed in two distinct bands with rain occurring along the surface front located in southern Vermont, while snow will be focused across northern New York beneath the mid-level front. Regarding the latter, decent mid-level frontogenesis will aid in generating accumulating snowfall, especially across the high terrain of the Adirondacks. Tomorrow/Tomorrow Night: The second wave of precipitation will be observed during the day on Wednesday which will be heaviest during the afternoon/evening as a cold front passes through. Accompanied by strong mid-level frontogenesis, this cold front will cause a band of heavy precipitation to develop between 2 PM and 8 PM EDT. West of the front, namely northern New York, precipitation will be in the form of heavy, wet snow where temperatures remain at or below freezing. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing across southeastern Vermont. There also exists a slight chance of thunder across southeastern Vermont during this time. Colder air will filter in behind the cold front, causing precipitation to change to snow across the entire forecast area, mainly after 8 PM. Snow will continue through the overnight hours into Thursday mainly across high elevations. Overall, snow totals will be 2 to 4 inches at locations below 1000 ft across northern New York and northern Vermont, with 4 to 7 inches at locations above 1000 ft. Less than an inch of snow is expected within broad valley locations. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 AM Thursday for portions of northern New York. Thursday: Gusty winds are expected on Thursday as the storm system exits to our east. Winds will be out of the northwest sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Mountain snow showers will be slow to abate on Thursday as the upper trough moves directly overhead. An additional dusting up to 2 inches is possible throughout the day Thursday, mainly across the high terrain of northeastern Vermont. Temperatures on Thursday will be chilly with highs only in the 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 251 PM EDT Tuesday...Low pressure will pull away from the North Country Thursday night, moving into the Maritimes and spinning there for much of the day Friday. As such, mountain snow showers will linger into Friday morning, especially in the northern Greens. Light additional snow accumulation will be possible. We should see at least some sunshine by Friday afternoon, but brisk west winds and highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s will keep conditions on the cool side. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 251 PM EDT Tuesday...The end of this week will feature fair weather as ridging briefly crosses the region. However, our next potential for widespread rain arrives late Saturday night into Sunday. An upper trough will traverse across our area, with a surface low to develop off the southern New England coast and lift toward Nova Scotia/Bay of Fundy. Precipitation should be mostly rain with this system, though the higher elevations will likely see some snow showers Sunday night as colder air spills into the region. Ridging and dry weather resumes by Monday, though it will be a little cool and brisk with gusty northwest winds and highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tuesday will continue to be dry with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions to start with band of precipitation moving in between 08z and 14z which will lower ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR and IFR categories. Conditions will improve briefly back to VFR between 14z and 18z, but then sharply falling into the IFR and LIFR categories due to heavier rain and snow between 18z and 00z. Winds will taper off under 10 knots this evening, then pick up from the northwest after 18z with gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ029>031-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hammond SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Evenson

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