Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 222352 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 752 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Generally dry weather is expected during the next five to seven days, with the exception of a few mountain snow showers Friday into Saturday under variably cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain slightly below average for late March through the weekend. However, strengthening high pressure early next week will bring increased sunshine and moderating temperatures with valley highs back into the upper 40s to mid 50s for Tuesday through Thursday of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 719 PM EDT Thursday...Modest adjustments to sky cover over the next 6 hours to account for current observational trends. Sky cover generally SKC to PC currently and expect better coverage of clouds to form later tonight in response to approaching upper vorticity. This predicated some slight adjustments downward in temperatures, especially across the northern mountains where radiative effects will take hold for a few hours this evening before clouds arrive. Have a nice evening! Prior discussion... Relatively quiet wx. We`ve been seeing a gradual dissipation of cirrus layer this afternoon as low pressure south of Nova Scotia gradually pulls away to the east. Low-level gradient flow remains from the north on the wrn periphery of this offshore, vertically stacked system. Relatively low dewpoints (20s) and PBL mixing has resulted in wind speeds 12-15kt sustained with a few gusts in excess of 20kt expected thru 22Z or so. Thereafter, stabilization will occur quickly with winds decreasing below 5kt in most areas after 03Z/Friday. Will see mostly clear conditions early, but next shortwave trough advancing sewd from the northern Great Lakes will bring an increase in clouds during the overnight period, especially after midnight. Main effect will be to mitigate radiative cooling late. The BTVWRF-4km and NAM-Nest both suggest a few flurries possible across the northern Adirondacks 09-15Z, and have included some minimal 20-40 PoPs to cover this possibility. Little or no snowfall accumulation is expected given limited moisture (PW values around 0.25"). Overnight lows should range from the low-mid 20s. However, some teens are possible in far nern VT with later arrival of clouds with next shortwave trough. Generally looking for mid-level low/500mb vort center to pass across the srn tier of NY during the afternoon hours on Friday, and then across srn New England on Friday night. This will maintain variable cloud cover with a scattered flurry possible across the Adirondacks and Green Mtns Friday into Friday night. Gradient flow will remain from the north, keeping temperatures slightly below climo mean for late March. Highs on Friday generally expected in the 35-40F range, with lows Friday night back into the low-mid 20s, except upper teens in the northern Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...A weak upper level trough will stay over the North Country through the weekend with high pressure dominating at the surface. With light north northwesterly flow and some light low level moisture there may be some lingering orographic snow showers on the northwesterly facing slopes. That low level moisture will also lead to fairly widespread cloud cover which will temper our daytime highs and moderate overnight lows. We`ll still be slightly below normal for temps with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows overnight generally in the teens to low 20s. All in all it should be a pleasant weekend for any outdoor activities. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...The start of the work week will be dry and quiet weather will prevail until late in the week. High pressure dominates as a synoptic blocking pattern develops. This leads to to a warming trend with decent warm air advection in the low to mid levels. Based on 925/850mb temps I`ve gone well above 2-m temp guidance and expect temps in the valleys next week to rise into the low to mid 50s with overnight lows only dropping into the mid 30s. Otherwise its quiet on almost all fronts until Wednesday night/Thursday when a more spring/summer type cold front swings through with the parent low North of Hudson Bay. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with a gradual lowering of ceilings from 200 currently to 060-100 for Friday. Could see some light snow showers develop at KSLK late tonight and Friday, but confidence in the areal coverage is low so have just included VCSH for now. In any snow, MVFR and perhaps IFR will be possible. Winds will mainly be NNW and less than 10kts. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Lahiff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.