


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --049 FXUS61 KBTV 271920 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Increasing clouds and chances for showers will be possible this evening, with additional showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible overnight as a warm front lifts across our region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow, with some thunderstorms capable of producing localized very heavy rainfall. Drier and warmer weather returns for Sunday and Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Cloud cover continues to increase across the region this afternoon, with a few chances for some showers this evening as a warm front begins to lift across the region to the north. The forecast has not changed much from the previous shift, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected overnight and through the day tomorrow. The precipitation tonight will be driven by warm air advection and some elevated instability, with a few rumbles of thunder possible overnight tonight. In addition to the showers, strong southerly flow and breezy conditions will be possible, especially across Lake Champlain. Temperatures overnight tonight will be fairly mild, only dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. By tomorrow morning, the frontal boundary will be to our north, with the region sitting in the warm sector. A cold front will look to push through during the day tomorrow, bringing some additional convection throughout the day. A few stronger showers may be possible, but the exact locations of any stronger convection are tricky to pinpoint. SPC currently clips the forecast area with a Marginal Risk for severe, with most of the area just expecting general thunderstorms. The best convergence and axis of heaviest rainfall remain to our north, with current rainfall forecasts showing amounts ranging anywhere from 0.25 to 1.0 inches near the international border throughout the forecast period. The environment will still be quite favorable for efficient rainfall processes, with PWAT values of 1.5 inches and deep warm layer cloud depths, so a localized and isolated flash flooding threat will still be possible, especially across the higher terrain. WPC continues to maintain a Marginal Risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for thus time frame. Drier air looks to quickly move into the region towards the afternoon, effectively limiting the heavy rain threat and most precipitation chances. Daytime highs tomorrow will largely depend on the timing of precipitation and how quickly the cold front pushes through, with highs in the 70s to low 80s possible tomorrow afternoon. The drier conditions will continue into Saturday night, with lows in the upper 50s and 60s expected.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Weak surface high pressure and building mid-level ridging will support fantastic weather on Sunday. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s while dewpoints remaining in the mid 50s to lower 60s. By nighttime, west- northwest flow will switch back to the south as the mid- level ridge pushes east. Low temperatures will be somewhat above seasonal normals in the mid 50s to mid 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 315 PM EDT Friday...On Monday, the ridge will reamplify in the face of an incoming trough. Strengthening southwesterly flow will return heat and humidity to the forecast area. Forecast 925mb temperatures range from about 23-25 C, and this should put us in the upper 80s to mid 90s during the afternoon while dewpoints climb up towards the mid to upper 60s. You can also expect a warm, muggy night in the mid 60s to lower 70s. However, this heat will be short-lived. A cold front will begin to approach the forecast area Tuesday morning. It doesn`t appear likely to be very impactful. The prefrontal trough should produce some scattered precipitation during the morning hours. The moisture plume associated with it will shift east by afternoon, which will be replaced by dry mid-level air. The actual front shifts east mid- afternoon, but while that dry air is present. Thus, we may observe isolated to scattered convection associated with the frontal boundary, but updrafts do not appear likely to be impressive given marginal CAPE and limited forcing. Behind the cold front, temperatures will gradually settle back to seasonal norms. An upper low will gradually shift out of the Hudson Bay and approach the region. Although there`s limited moisture, its presence should allow for isolated to scattered diurnal convection ahead of it for the remainder of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all terminals for the next several hours, with some showers expected to approach the region towards 00Z or so. Some heavier downpours will be possible, which may briefly reduce visibilities. Ceilings will gradually trend towards MVFR overnight, into the day tomorrow with continued chances for rain showers. Winds will generally be southerly throughout the forecast period, with some localized higher gusts possible at KBTV and KRUT. A period of LLWS is expected overnight tonight as well. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... The threat for excessive rainfall and the potential flash flooding threat has decreased across much of the North Country tonight into Saturday. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday with localized heavy rainfall possible in the stronger storms. Very isolated flash flooding is possible, especially if a mountain basin has several direct hits from thunderstorms on Saturday. Any flood threat quickly ends by sunset on Saturday evening. && .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain tonight. South winds generally 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will increase towards 15 to 30 knots this evening into the overnight hours, with even higher gusts possible. Waves are expected to build to 3 to 6 feet across the lake tonight. Conditions are expected to improve throughout the day tomorrow.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Kremer HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV MARINE...NWS BTV