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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240743
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will be the rule today
as high pressure gradually moves east of the region today. There
will be increasing high level clouds...but most areas will still
see a good deal of sunshine. Deeper moisture moves in later
tonight and rain will begin to move in...especially after
midnight tonight and be widespread across the area on Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 303 AM EDT Tuesday...Still dealing with a wide range of
temperatures across the area early this morning with with 26
degrees at Saranac Lake and 54 here in Burlington. Dew points
all over the place as well...but have been slowly rising. Should
still take awhile for deeper moisture to move into the region
today and with highs in the 60s to around 70 afternoon relative
humidities should be in the 18 to 28 percent range. No precipitation
is expected today with just a gradual increase in high clouds...
especially this afternoon.

Trends in the data suggest a little slower onset to the
precipitation tonight as phasing of the shortwave moving up
from the southwest and upstream trough dropping out of Canada
does not really get organized. So have delayed the onset of the
rain by about 3 hours tonight with the best chances occurring
after midnight tonight and especially during the day on Wednesday
as upstream trough coming down from Canada becomes more organized.
Will continue the idea of categorical precipitation chances on
Wednesday and with plenty of clouds and precipitation...highs
will drop back down into the 50s. Precipitation amounts tonight
through Wednesday afternoon should be in the third to half inch
range with additional precipitation Wednesday night. The warmer
temperatures should lead to some higher elevation snowmelt and
with the precipitation rises on area waterways will be taking
place and will be something to keep an eye on. But at this point
not expecting any flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Precipitation will continue
Wednesday night, then end late in the day Thursday. Upper level
low pressure system will be passing overhead Wednesday night,
and upper level shortwave energy will help to enhance precip. As
upper level low crosses the area, precipitation will become
orographically influenced before ending late in the day
Thursday. Temperatures Wednesday night will be warmer than
seasonal normals due to clouds and precipitation, and for the
same reason daytime maximum temperatures Thursday will be a bit
cooler than seasonal normals. By the end of the day Thursday,
rainfall totals will be in the three quarters of an inch to an
inch range, highest totals in Northern New York.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...Precipitation will be ending Thursday
night, and Friday will be a break in the action as some weak
ridging builds into the area. Southwesterly flow increasing
during the day Friday should aid in bumping temps up to the 60s
once again. More rain showers are expected Friday night and
Saturday with another Northern stream system crossing our area.
Timing if tough to pin down currently, with GFS and ECMWF not in
very good agreement. Sunday does look much better though with
another high pressure ridge building into our area from the
South.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Low level wind shear is possible at KMSS
and KSLK through about 12z this morning with low level jet
passing through the area and light winds remaining at the
surface. Otherwise looking at VFR conditions through the period
with a gradual increase in mid and high clouds as the day wears
on. After 03z we could see some light rain moving in from the
southwest...but visibilities will remain in the VFR category.
Winds will generally be from the south and southwest today at
speeds of 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely RA, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR. Likely RA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson