Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240743 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 343 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and above normal temperatures will be the rule today as high pressure gradually moves east of the region today. There will be increasing high level clouds...but most areas will still see a good deal of sunshine. Deeper moisture moves in later tonight and rain will begin to move in...especially after midnight tonight and be widespread across the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 303 AM EDT Tuesday...Still dealing with a wide range of temperatures across the area early this morning with with 26 degrees at Saranac Lake and 54 here in Burlington. Dew points all over the place as well...but have been slowly rising. Should still take awhile for deeper moisture to move into the region today and with highs in the 60s to around 70 afternoon relative humidities should be in the 18 to 28 percent range. No precipitation is expected today with just a gradual increase in high clouds... especially this afternoon. Trends in the data suggest a little slower onset to the precipitation tonight as phasing of the shortwave moving up from the southwest and upstream trough dropping out of Canada does not really get organized. So have delayed the onset of the rain by about 3 hours tonight with the best chances occurring after midnight tonight and especially during the day on Wednesday as upstream trough coming down from Canada becomes more organized. Will continue the idea of categorical precipitation chances on Wednesday and with plenty of clouds and precipitation...highs will drop back down into the 50s. Precipitation amounts tonight through Wednesday afternoon should be in the third to half inch range with additional precipitation Wednesday night. The warmer temperatures should lead to some higher elevation snowmelt and with the precipitation rises on area waterways will be taking place and will be something to keep an eye on. But at this point not expecting any flooding. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Precipitation will continue Wednesday night, then end late in the day Thursday. Upper level low pressure system will be passing overhead Wednesday night, and upper level shortwave energy will help to enhance precip. As upper level low crosses the area, precipitation will become orographically influenced before ending late in the day Thursday. Temperatures Wednesday night will be warmer than seasonal normals due to clouds and precipitation, and for the same reason daytime maximum temperatures Thursday will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals. By the end of the day Thursday, rainfall totals will be in the three quarters of an inch to an inch range, highest totals in Northern New York.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...Precipitation will be ending Thursday night, and Friday will be a break in the action as some weak ridging builds into the area. Southwesterly flow increasing during the day Friday should aid in bumping temps up to the 60s once again. More rain showers are expected Friday night and Saturday with another Northern stream system crossing our area. Timing if tough to pin down currently, with GFS and ECMWF not in very good agreement. Sunday does look much better though with another high pressure ridge building into our area from the South.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Low level wind shear is possible at KMSS and KSLK through about 12z this morning with low level jet passing through the area and light winds remaining at the surface. Otherwise looking at VFR conditions through the period with a gradual increase in mid and high clouds as the day wears on. After 03z we could see some light rain moving in from the southwest...but visibilities will remain in the VFR category. Winds will generally be from the south and southwest today at speeds of 10 knots or less. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely RA, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Wednesday Night: MVFR. Likely RA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson

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