Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220606 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 206 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will lead to quiet weather with long awaited warmer temperatures. Above normal temperatures are expected through the week with highs in the 60`s and lows in the 40`s. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday into Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 151 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will lead to both the long awaited warmer Springtime temperatures as well as large diurnal swings. The winds overnight have gone calm and temps are dropping rapidly. Expect lows near MOS guidance in the upper 20s to even teens in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. As soon as we see sunlight however anticipate rapid warming across the North Country. 925mb temps in the +4 to +5 support max temps similar to yesterday in the low to mid 50s. Its going to be a blue bird day with plentiful sunshine and mild northwesterly winds. Heading into the evening hours the surface high will be cresting over the region and temps should plummet as radiational cooling takes effect. Boundary layer winds decouple and we will cool rapidly back into the 20s to low 30s again. High clouds should be starting to filter in late overnight so that may temper how cold we get down to. Monday is expected to be another wonderful North Country day as we warm into the mid 60s with light southerly flow and no precip to speak of. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Ridging aloft building as surface high pressure remains across fa and plenty of sunshine. 850mb temps 3-4C and 925mb temps 8-9C thus looking at L-M60s possible for Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Upper and surface ridging beginning to slide east on Tuesday with SSW flow and increase in high-mid level moisture, thus increasing clouds. 850mb temps 4C and 925mb temps 9-11C thus looking at M60s perhaps even some U60s if cloud cover is slower to advance. By Tuesday night-Wednesday potential weak, diffuse phasing of northern-southern stream shortwave troughs across the Upper Ohio Valley. Given it`s weak and diffuse, the details in timing of precipitation Wed-Friday. Previous shift summarized this period well. The GFS suggests light precipitation on Wednesday, and again Friday. The ECMWF suggest a more phased soln with a consolidated coastal low Wednesday into Thursday, with drier weather for Friday. Overall predictability of the pattern is considered lower than normal. At this point, have indicated low likely PoPs (50- 60%) for Wed/Wed night, followed by chance PoPs (30-40%) Thu-Fri for periods of rain showers. Not expecting any heavy precipitation at this time. Abundant clouds and potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid-upr 50s for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and lows in the upr 30s-mid 40s. Potential greater phasing on Sat, yet details still differ should mean Saturday is a wetter day than Friday with surface low pressure largely elongated across the northeast. Looking at Hydro...still decent amount of snow in the mountains and upcoming weather will promote snow melt, especially Monday-Tuesday. However, rainfall seems showery with rainfall amounts largely around 1/2 inch for the next 7 days. Mountain watersheds will see rises through the week due to the combination of snow melt and rainfall but all ensemble guidance and climatology suggest more rain is needed for any issues. Still worth looking at future forecasts for any possible changes to rainfall amounts. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period. SKC with no precipitation or restrictions to visibility expected. Winds light and variable overnight, then light west/northwesterly once again after 14Z Sunday the back to calm overnight. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Deal

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